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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 27, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -1.02% downside to 1402 and 0.03% upside to 1417. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1566 (304)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 754.94 (1.79%) 
  • VIX:  14.26 -3.78% YTD PERFORMANCE: -39.06% 
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.72 from 1.96 (-12.25%) 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK: 

  • TED SPREAD: 40.14
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.25 from 2.25
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.90 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates): 

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 9am: S&P/Case-Shiller (Y/y), Jan., est. -3.8% (prior -3.99%)
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence, Mar., est. 70.1 (prior 70.8)
  • 10am: Richmond Fed, Mar., est. 18 (prior 20)
  • 10am: Fed’s Dudley, Kamin to speak at hearing in Washington on Eurozone aid
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 4-week bills
  • 12:35pm: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in London
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Bernanke lectures at George Washington (3 of 4)
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 2-yr notes
  • 1:20pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Choudrant, Louisiana
  • 3:45pm: Fed’s Duke speaks via videoconference on building sustainable communities
  • 4:30pm: API inventories
  • 9pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks at Tsinghua University 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama meets with Pakistan PM Yousaf Raza Gillani, says he hopes countries can repair strained ties
  • Nuclear Regulatory Commission holds a briefing on license renewal for research and test reactors, 9am
  • House, Senate in session:
    • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies on the budget to House Appropriations subcommittee, 10am
    • Natural Resources Committee holds a hearing on impact of rising gasoline prices on U.S. tourism industry, 10am
    • House Financial Services subcommittee hears from New York Fed President William Dudley on Fed aid to the Eurozone, 10am
    • House Energy subcommittee hearing on cosmetics, 10:15 am
    • House Financial Services Committee marks up FHA Emergency Fiscal Solvency Act, 1pm 

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Home prices in 20 U.S. cities measured by S&P/Case-Shiller probably fell 3.8%, smallest decline in 3 mos., economists est.
  • Obama administration today will defend requirement that Americans obtain insurance or pay a penalty in second of three days of arguments before Supreme Court over health- care law
  • Annie’s, maker of organic and natural packaged foods, boosted its IPO range to $16-$18 ahead of today’s expected offering
  • Michaels Stores, owned by Blackstone, Bain, said to consider filing for IPO as soon as next week
  • Universal Music said to ready three publishing catalogs for sale which may raise as much as $200m
  • United Technologies faces in-depth EU probe into bid to buy Goodrich for $16.5b; UTX says sees closing of deal mid-year
  • RBS up 6% in London after two people familiar with situation said the U.K. govt. held talks with investors, including Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, about sale of part of its stake
  • Sharp plans to raise ~$800m in share sale of unit to Hon Hai Precision, three related companies, to replenish capital
  • Rio Tinto weighing sale of diamond assets as part of strategy review 

EARNINGS:

    • Lennar (LEN) 6am, $0.05
    • Charming Shoppes (CHRS) 6:58am, $(0.02)
    • McCormick (MKC) 7am, $0.53
    • Walgreen (WAG) 7:30am, $0.77
    • Neogen (NEOG) 8:45am, $0.22
    • Oxford Industries (OXM) 4pm, $0.55
    • Exfo (EXF CN) 4pm, $0.08
    • Christopher & Banks (CBK) 4:01pm, $(0.47)
    • Synnex (SNX) 4:02pm, $0.92
    • PVH (PVH) 4:02pm, $1.10
    • Robbins & Myers (RBN) Post-Mkt, $0.75 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG) 

  • Russia-Sized Mistakes Driving Corn Prices to Limit: Commodities
  • Oil Near Three-Day High as Equity Gains Balance Supply Increase
  • Soybeans Gain as Dry Weather Hurts Yields in Southern Brazil
  • U.S. Corn Exports to Japan Drop as Brazil, Ukraine Boost Sales
  • Gold May Gain From 2-Week High in London on Fed Monetary Policy
  • Copper May Rise for Third Day on Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
  • White Sugar Slides After India Allows More Exports; Cocoa Rises
  • La Nina Weather Pattern ‘Is Dead,’ World’s Forecasters Say
  • Shell Shearwater Field Pumping Gas After Total’s Elgin Halt
  • Oil Stockpiles Rise to Six-Month High in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Palm Oil Rallies to One-Year High as Vegetable-Oil Supplies Drop
  • Oil-Sands Firm Sells U.S. Debt on Keystone Faith: Canada Credit
  • Cars Sent to U.S. Rise Most Since ‘06 Aiding Wilhelmsen: Freight
  • Oil Stockpiles at Six-Month High in Survey
  • Enbridge Venture Plans New Oil Pipes to Gulf as Keystone Blocked
  • China Aluminum Smelters Undo Alcoa, Rio Cuts: Chart of the Day
  • Fracking Boom Makes U.S. Laggard No More on Greenhouse-Gas Cuts 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team