If the US presidential election were held today, President Obama would have a 62.3% chance of winning reelection, according to the Hedgeye Election Indicator (HEI). President Obama’s likelihood of reelection is up from 60.5% last week, and at its highest level ever, according to the HEI. For some perspective, in October of last year, the HEI calculation showed that the President had only a 44.9% chance of winning, his lowest score on the HEI.
Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment.
One of those market indicators, the VIX, which measures volatility in the stock market, currently stands below 15, which benefits President Obama’s chances in the Hedgeye Election Indicator model this week.
Additionally, the strong performance of the US stock market in general that saw the S&P 500 move to a four-year high Monday, helps President Obama’s reelection chances, according to the HEI.
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