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Lowering March GGR forecast to HK$23.5-24 billion.

Macau saw some deceleration this week with daily table revenues (ADTR) slowing to HK$664MM from HK$775MM last week and February’s ADTR of HK$776MM. With less than a week left in March, we are lowering our March forecast to HK$23.5-24BN, up 21% to 23% YoY.  As a reminder, March 2011 was the lowest hold month of year at just 2.66% (adjusting for direct play volume of ~6.6% or HK$4.5BN), so the comparisons are going to get tougher for the rest of the year.  While SCC should grow the market, 2011 also had the opening of Galaxy Macau, so the stimulation from new supply should be similar.  We have seen a YoY deceleration play out throughout the last 3 weeks where YoY went from 51% for the week ending 3/11, to 24% for the week ending 3/18, down to 17% this week.

The slowdown in the numbers was also reflected in lower volumes seen across the main gaming floors, so it’s unclear if all of the deceleration seen this week is simply due to changes in weekly hold rates.  Some have speculated that the slowdown could be partly due to some punters holding off their visits for the opening of Sands Cotai Central which is due to open just a few weeks from now.  However, the slowdown prior to new openings has been a little closer in historically.


In terms of market share, Galaxy was the biggest winner this week while WYNN was the biggest share donor.  We believe that the shift in market share was largely due to good luck at Galaxy and poor hold at Wynn.  MPEL’s weekly share was above its MTD trend, while LVS, MGM and SJM all were below MTD share.