THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 26, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.58% downside to 1389 and 0.99% upside to 1411. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1262 (2770) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 741.64 (-2.79%)
  • VIX:  14.82 -4.82% YTD PERFORMANCE: -36.67%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.96 from 2.49 (-21.29%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 40.19
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
  • 10-Year: 2.28 from 2.23
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.88 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: Fed’s Plosser speaks in Paris
  • 8am: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks in Virginia
  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Feb. (prior 0.22)
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales (M/m), Feb., est. 1.0% (prior 2.0%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Mar., est. 16 (prior 17.8)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $30b 3-mo., $29b 6-mo. bills 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Supreme Court hears health-care challenge
    • President Obama attends nuclear summit in South Korea
    • FTC hosts press conference on release of final privacy framework report
    • House, Senate in session 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Supreme Court hears first of three days of arguments over President Obama’s health-care law
  • Yahoo named three new board members after failing to reach compromise with Third Point, which pledged a proxy fight
  • Rick Santorum won Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday; next major primary is Wisconsin on April 3
  • Obama warned North Korea its plan to fire long-range rocket undermined prospects for future negotiations
  • Bats Global blamed computer malfunction for trading errors last week that results in Bats pulling IPO
  • Pending home sales may have climbed 1% in Feb. after a 2.0% gain in Jan., economists est: Weekly eco preview
  • U.K., most of Europe set clocks ahead one hour over weekend
  • Citigroup expects $700m impairment charge in 1Q as it cuts its investment Turkey’s Akbank by more than half
  • Roche extended its $5.7b hostile takeover offer for Illumina for a second time
  • U.S. Treasury Department set to sell on or around today preferred stock in six banks it bought stakes in as part of TARP
  • ING said to be seeking at least $7b for Asian insurance business and has drawn interest from potential suitors including MetLife 

EARNINGS:

    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 6:30 a.m., $1.02
    • Kior (KIOR) 4:01 p.m., $(0.15)
    • Apollo Group (APOL) 4:05 p.m., $0.37    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


COPPER – the Doctor continues to look exactly like the slope of global growth, slowing. Copper now bearish TRADE and TAIL with big TRADE resistance overhead at $3.85/lb. 

  • Hedge Funds Make Wrong-Way Bets for a Fourth Week: Commodities
  • Soybeans Jump to Six-Month High as U.S. Growers Favor Corn
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Drops as European Crisis May Worsen
  • Oil Falls, Extending Two-Week Drop on Europe Debt, Slower China
  • Sugar Falls to One-Week Low on Indian Supplies; Cocoa Advances
  • Gold May Fall in London as Dollar Strengthens, ETP Holdings Drop
  • China’s Soft Landing Still May Be Hard for Commodity Exporters
  • Robusta Coffee May Gain 10% as Emerging Markets’ Demand Climbs
  • Gold Imports by India to Slump as Jewelers Extend Shutdown
  • Shale Boom in Europe Fades as Polish Wells Come Up Empty: Energy
  • Vitol Said to Buy Diesel From Mangalore Refinery for May Loading
  • Total Says North Sea Elgin Field Output Halts After Gas Leak
  • Asia Naphtha Crack Rebounds; Chevron Sells Fuel: Oil Products
  • Hedge Funds Make Wrong Way Bet for 4th Week
  • BG, Eni Make New East Africa Gas Finds Larger Than U.K. Reserves
  • Japan Has One Reactor With 1.9% of Total Capacity Online
  • German Next-Month Clean-Dark Spread Falls to Lowest Since August 

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CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


SPAIN – continued selling in Spanish stocks, down -1.8% to start the week and now down -5.1% for the YTD (vs Germany +18.6%) and Super Mario Monti wants “firewall.” It ain’t over, till its over folks.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


JAPAN – clients want a “catalyst” in the Japanese Sovereign Debt Crisis – here’s ours: gravity. The Yen kicks off the week down -0.4% vs the USD (after Goldman said buy Yen Fri) and former exec director of the BOJ (Hirano, from 2002-2006) saying that Japan has “crossed the Rubicon with really desperate measures.”

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 



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