If the US election were held today, President Obama would stand a 60.5% chance of getting reelected, according to the Hedgeye Election Indicator (HEI). President Obama’s likelihood of reelection is up from 58.6% last week, and at its highest level since May of last year, according to the HEI.
Hedgeye developed the HEI to understand the relationship between key market and economic data and the US Presidential Election. After rigorous back testing, Hedgeye has determined that there are a short list of real time market-based indicators, that move ahead of President Obama’s position in conventional polls or other measures of sentiment. One of those market indicators, the timing of the performance of key equities, benefited President Obama’s chances in the Hedgeye Election Indicator model this week.
Based on our analysis, market prices will adjust in real-time ahead of economic conditions, which will ultimately shape voters’ perception of the Obama Presidency, the Republican candidates and influence the probability of an Obama reelection.
Hedgeye releases the HEI every Tuesday at 7 a.m. ET, all the way until election day Tuesday November 6.
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