Be ready for guys selling their own books   



We were in Las Vegas last week and our takeaways don’t necessarily jive with some of the common wisdom in the investment community.  Here are some pitches by guys pimping their own pads likely to be heard this week out at the conference.  Our responses are in italics:

  • “WMS is going to punt badly again”
    • We disagree – 2H fiscal 2012 looks in line to better
    • Sentiment is awful
    • Investor meetings likely to be positive on the margin
  • “MGM is so leveraged to the recovery.  Upside will be massive”
    • Growth is not explosive and companies only expect modest growth
    • Street looks aggressive beyond Q1
    • Not sure Street is taking into account the likely food and healthcare inflation
  • “MPEL is going to do a dilutive equity deal”
    • We don’t think so
    • The Macau Studio City joint venture is more likely to sell equity at the project level
  • “The WYNN short is NOT overcrowded”
    • Yeah it is
    • We agree that WYNN faces some market share challenges in Macau but the market is just so damn strong
  • “All gaming stocks go up into the opening of new properties.  Gotta buy LVS.   Gotta buy PENN”
    • Both stocks have been strong – especially LVS – but so has the group
    • That’s the first thing the new pimple faced analyst at Consensus Capital learns
  • “IGT’s online strategy is flawed.  They will be competing with their customers”
    • Wait that was Gary Loveman that said that
    • IGT’s international pitch may finally be gaining some traction

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