prev

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH

Key Takeaways

*  There was little movement again this week in several key indicators. Euribor-OIS continued to trend downwards, falling 4 bps over last week. Over the same period, the TED spread remained flat. Both of these series have largely renormalized. 

 

* European and American Bank CDS tightened week over week.

 

* European sovereign swaps mostly tightened week over week with only Portugal and Ireland widening.

 

* The MCDX measure of municipal default risk fell 10.6% last week.  

 

* The 2-10 spread widened significantly week over week, ending 29 basis points higher. A sustained period of widening would be positive for bank margins. 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 • Short-term(WoW): Positive / 6 of 12 improved / 0 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 1 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 • Long-term(WoW): Negative / 1 of 12 improved / 5 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - Summary

 

1. US Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps tightened for 20 of 27 major domestic financial company reference entities last week.   

Tightened the most WoW: BAC, GS, C

Widened the most WoW: MBI, MMC, CB

Tightened the most MoM: AIG, BAC, PRU

Widened the most/ tightened the least MoM: MBI, AON, MMC

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - CDS  US

 

2. European Financials CDS Monitor – Bank swaps were tighter in Europe last week for 36 of the 40 reference entities. The average tightening was 3.9% and the median tightening was 5.9%.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - CDS  EURO

 

3. European Sovereign CDS – European Sovereign Swaps mostly tightened over last week. German sovereign swaps tightened by 10.5% (-8 bps to 69 ) and Portuguese sovereign swaps widened by 3.9% (49 bps to 1283).

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - Sovereign CDS

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - Sovereign CDS 2

 

4. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates were flat last week, ending at 7.01.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - High Yield

 

5. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 3.6 points last week, ending at 1646.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - LLI

 

6. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread was flat last week, ending the week at 39.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - TED

 

7. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index rose 0.5 points, ending the week at -7.65 versus -8.1 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - JOC

 

8. Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 4 bps to 49 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - Euribor OIS

 

9. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - ECB

 

10. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 14-V1. Last week spreads tightened, ending the week at 115 bps versus 129 bps the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - MCDX

 

11. Baltic Dry Index – The Baltic Dry Index measures international shipping rates of dry bulk cargo, mostly commodities used for industrial production. Higher demand for such goods, as manifested in higher shipping rates, indicates economic expansion. Last week the index rose 50 points, ending the week at 874 versus 824 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - Baltic

 

12. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.  Last week the 2-10 spread widened to 193 bps, 23 bps wider than a week ago.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - 2 10

 

Margin Debt - January

We publish NYSE Margin Debt every month when it’s released. NYSE Margin debt hit its post-2007 peak in April of 2011 at $320.7 billion. The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid against NYSE margin debt going back to 1997. In this chart both the S&P 500 and margin debt have been inflation adjusted (back to 1990 dollar levels), and we’re showing margin debt levels in standard deviations relative to the mean covering the period 1. While this may sound complicated, the message is really quite simple. First, when margin debt gets to 1.5 standard deviations or greater, as it did last April, that has historically been a signal of extreme risk in the equity market - the last two times it did this the equity market lost half its value in the ensuing period. We flagged this for the first time back in May 2011. The second point is that margin debt trends tend to exhibit high degrees of autocorrelation. In other words, the last few months’ change in margin debt is the best predictor of the change we’ll see in the next few months. This is important because it means that margin debt, which retraced back to +0.55 standard deviations in November, still has a long way to go. We would need to see it approach -0.5 to -1.0 standard deviations before the trend runs its course. There’s plenty of room for short/intermediate term reversals within this broader secular move, as we saw in December and January's print of +0.53 and +0.70 standard deviations.  Overall, however, this setup represents a long-term headwind for the market. One limitation of this series is that it is reported on a lag.  The chart shows data through January.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: WAIT AND WATCH - Margin Debt

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

Robert Belsky

 

Trouble viewing the charts in this email?  Please click the link at the bottom of the note to view in your browser. 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 19, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.93% downside to 1377 and 0.34% upside to 1409. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -285 (-864) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1648.04 (95.16%)
  • VIX:  14.47 -6.16% YTD PERFORMANCE: -38.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.94 from 1.06 (-45.36%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


TREASURIES – monster breakout in bond yields last week – was it the YTD top or can they hold; the intermediate-term TREND line of support for the 10yr = 2.03% and now immediate-term TRADE support = 2.12%. 

  • TED SPREAD: 39.24
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.27 from 2.29
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.93 from 1.94 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:35am, Fed’s Dudley to speak on Long Island about economy
  • 9:30am, Fed’s Killian testifies in Brooklyn on foreclosures
  • 10:00am, NAHB Housing Market Index, Mar., est. 30 (prior 29)
  • 11:30am, U.S. to sell $33b 3-mo., $31b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:40pm, Fed’s Dudley in roundtable on Long Island

GOVERNMENT:

    • Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney swept Puerto Rico’s primary; Illinois tomorrow
    • Deadline for Wisconsin election officials to review petitions seeking the recall of Governor Scott Walker
    • Deadline is Tuesday for presidential candidates, super-PACs to file updated finance reports
    • House, Senate in session
    • Republicans in Congress may release details of plan to give businesses with fewer than 500 employees an extra 20% tax deduction
    • FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski joins Republican member Robert McDowell to testify on regulator’s budget to House Appropriations subcommittee. 3pm
    • Supreme Court in session 

WHAT TO WATCH:    

  • Apple to discuss plans for its $97.6b in cash, investments in call at 9am ET, may announce dividend: analysts
  • UPS will buy TNT Express for $6.8b, securing deal after raising offer to EU9.50 per share in cash
  • Vista Equity Partners agreed to acquire Misys for $2.1b
  • CVC Capital said to be looking to refinance Nine Entertainment’s A$2.7b ($2.86b) Feb. 2013 senior debt: WSJ
  • UTX has until midnight to determine how it wants to address EU concerns regarding GR purchase
  • Commerce Dept. to rule on claim by Bonn, Germany-based SolarWorld’s U.S. unit that Chinese competitors receive unfair government support
  • Fed corrected errors in loan-loss estimated for banks, financial firms including Citigroup in stress test of capital under hypothetical economic slump
  • FTC examining what impact hospital mergers have on health- care costs for consumers: WSJ
  • Brazilian prosecutor will file charges by March 22 for “environmental crimes” following oil spill off coast of Brazil involving Chevron
  • Five states said to be considering whether they’ll sue to challenge Express Scripts’s bid for Medco Health Solutions if federal antitrust regulators approve deal
  • Apple sought another court order to get Motorola Mobility Holdings to turn over information about its pending acquisition by Google, development of Android software operating system
  • Deutsche Lufthansa’s sale of its BMI Regional unit faltering as buyer struggling to raise money for purchase
  • “21 Jump Street” led U.S., Canadian box office over the weekend, generating $35m in sales for Sony’s Columbia Pictures
  • No U.S. IPOs scheduled: Bloomberg data 

EARNINGS:

    • SouthGobi Resources (SGQ CN) 8am, C$0.01
    • Adobe (ADBE) 4pm, $0.57    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – both Brent and WTIC continue to hold all immediate-term price momentum lines of support and this will continue to be the most relevant Global headwind to real inflation adjusted growth going forward. We have no idea how some of the bulls are getting to +3% US GDP in Q1 and Q2; its mathematically impossible in our model using the right GDP Deflator. 

  • Speculators Dumped Crop Wagers Before Biggest Rally: Commodities
  • Oil Falls From One-Week High on Supply; BofA Boosts Forecasts
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Chinese Housing, Stocks
  • Global Food Price Rally Will Drive Investment, Nestle Says
  • Gold May Decline as Advancing Growth Reduces Investor Demand
  • Coffee Climbs as Roasters May Tap Europe’s Stocks; Sugar Falls
  • Corn Climbs to Six-Month High as Rains May Hurt China Planting
  • UBS AG Reduces Gold Forecasts Amid ‘Challenging Environment’
  • Cocoa Harvest in Indonesia to Drop on Palm Oil, Rubber Lure
  • Funds Cut Bullish Gas Bets as Supply Glut Grows: Energy Markets
  • Fukushima Farmers Face Decades of Tainted Crops as Fears Linger
  • Gold Stock Premium at Record Low on ETF Demand: Corporate Canada
  • Germany $263 Billion Electric Shift Biggest Since War (Correct)
  • Speculators Dumped Crop Bets Before Rally
  • Jewelers in India Strike for First Time Since 2005 on Taxes
  • Sugar Exports From Philippines Set to Double as Supply Gains
  • Italian Refiners Make Initial Bookings for Iran Oil Shipments 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


INDIA – positive price momentum on the Sensex is nowhere to be found = down another -1.3% last night after the Indian government revealed more about its mounting deficit issues (-5.9% of GDP and rising); countries who are short oil are going to be in a world of hurt on a real inflation adjusted growth basis (India down -6.5% from its Feb 21 top).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 



get free cartoon of the day!

Start receiving Hedgeye's Cartoon of the Day, an exclusive and humourous take on the market and the economy, delivered every morning to your inbox

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

Tranquil Occupation

“It is neither wealth nor splendor, but tranquility and occupation, that gives happiness.”

-Thomas Jefferson

 

The first time I made the Inflation Slows Growth call (Q1 of 2008), I was a little stressed out. I was just starting a new company. I had everything to lose. Plenty of people were shooting against me.

 

The second time (Q1 of 2011), I had a much larger research team working alongside me and our confidence was high that consensus was way too bullish. People started to believe in our process.

 

This time (Q1 of 2012), from a fundamental Growth and Inflation perspective, very few factors in our risk management model suggest it’s going to be different. Growth continues to slow, globally, as inflation accelerates.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

While the calculus associated with how inflation slows real (inflation adjusted) growth is trivial, consensus calculations addressing this very basic real-world relationship are not.

 

Let’s look Credit Suisse’s latest “Reasons To Be Positive On Equities”:

  1. “Bond yields could rise further – this might help equities”
  2. “The Macro environment is supportive – Economic momentum indicators suggest global and US growth is still well above consensus”
  3. “The dovishness of central banks and the synchronized QE as the end game”

I’ll stop with their first 3 reasons as the next 6 have to do with the run-of-the-mill bull market thesis that has had people run right over if they bought Equities at the end of Q1 2008 or Q1 2011 (‘the world is awash with liquidity… stocks are cheap… blah, blah, blah’).

 

First, in addressing reasons 1-3 in order, I always start debates with my analysts with questions:

  1. Does the thesis change if bond yields don’t rise further?
  2. What’s consensus GDP; what’s your outside of consensus forecast; and what track record do you have in making these GDP calls?
  3. What’s different this time about central bank easing that won’t perpetuate inflation and, in turn, slow growth?

So, if you are meeting with Credit Suisse or JP Morgan’s Tom Lee in the coming weeks, see if they can answer those 3 questions.

 

Facts about reasons 1-3:

  1. Bond Yields rising to their YTD highs in Q1 of 2011 were not a buy signal for stocks – they were a huge head-fake
  2. US GDP growth slowed hard in the face of $120 (Brent) oil  in Q1/Q2 2011 to 0.36% and 1.34%, respectively
  3. On the margin, the only central bank of the 3 majors that can cut rates to 0% from here is the ECB

Furthermore, our risk management models suggest that reasons 1-3 need to be contextualized:

  1. 10-year US Treasury Yield TRADE, TREND, and TAIL lines are 2.12%, 2.03%, and 2.47%, respectively
  2. Our “low” and “high” scenarios for US GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2012 are 0.9% and 1.7% (y/y), respectively
  3. The Sovereign Surprise of 2012 could be Japan, resorting to BOJ money printing, which would be US Dollar bullish (hawkish)

In other words, making a call that everyone is going to dog pile into Equities after this compressed smack-down move in Treasury Bonds is not one that is backed by anything that’s actually been happening in the world since 2008.

 

In theory, it makes sense. And in actuality, since Equity “fund flows” and volumes are dead, that’s what the Equity market needs (rotation out of bonds into stocks). But, to be clear, what people need in this business and what’s going to occur, can be two very different things.

 

Because an equity fund manager needs to chase performance or a pension fund needs to target a rate of return, doesn’t mean anything at all really. Markets do not care about what any of us need.

 

No matter what your successes or failures for 2012 YTD, what you need to get right from here are the slopes of Growth and Inflation. How does accelerating inflation infect growth? What pace of Deflating The Inflation could foster sustainable US Consumption Growth?

 

My Tranquil Occupation isn’t perma bull or perma bear – it’s perma process. In order to answer all of the aforementioned questions, you need a process that has proven to be both accurate and repeatable.

 

What would get me on board with some of Credit Suisse’s thoughts on US Equities:

  1. US Dollar Index breakout into the mid-80s (versus $79.81 this morning)
  2. US Treasury Yields (10-year) breaking out > 2.47% and holding there
  3. US Federal Reserve? Get them out of the way

My scenario is at least consistent. The Credit Suisse report wants you to believe that both bond yields and growth expectations can break-out to the upside while maintaining “synchronized QE” from central banks. By definition, all 3 of those things can’t happen at the same time. Unless, of course, the Fed is as conflicted and compromised as the world is beginning to believe it is.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, US Treasury 10-year Yields, and the SP500 are now $1, $124.69-127.49, $79.55-79.93, 2.12-2.38%, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Tranquil Occupation - Chart of the Day

 

Tranquil Occupation - Virtual Portfolio


THE WEEK AHEAD

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 19th of March through the 23rd is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD - top

THE WEEK AHEAD - bot
 


Weekly European Monitor: Guiding Expectations

Positions in Europe: Short Greece (GREK), Short Spain (EWP)

 

Asset Class Performance:

  • Equities:   Top performers:  Hungary 4.7%; Germany 4.0%; Belgium 3.7%; Italy 3.7%; Austria 3.6%.  Bottom performers:  Cyprus -1.7%; Portugal -1.4%; Romania -70bps.
  • FX:  The EUR/USD is up +0.40% week-over-week.  Divergences: HUF/EUR +0.96%, GBP/EUR +0.68%; NOK/EUR -0.84%, PLN/EUR -0.76%. The HUF/EUR leads all major expanded currencies at +8.87% year-to-date. 
  • Fixed Income:  Greek debt was re-priced this week following agreement on the PSI; the Greek 10YR yield fell a monster 1844bps to 18.12% week-over-week.  Portugal’s 10YR led to the downside, falling -22bps to 13.64%, while Spain saw the largest gain at +23bps to 5.19%.  

Weekly European Monitor: Guiding Expectations - 11. neu yields

 

 

Call Outs:

  • Greece now has the highest gas price in the continent at over $9.00/gallon.
  • Fitch upgraded Greece from restricted default to B-minus with a stable outlook following the completion of the country's debt swap with private investors.
  • Greece’s Presidential election is to be held on April 29th or May 6th, spokesman Pantelis Kapsis.
  • Spain - Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said Spain would comply with a demand by euro-zone finance ministers that it cut its deficit to 5.3% of gross domestic product in 2012, while sticking to its 2013 target of 3%.
  • UK - Fitch revises UK outlook to Negative from Stable, and keeps country at AAA.
  • Russia – President Medvedev’s human rights council urged him to pardon Mikhail Khodorkovsky in his last weeks in office, presenting legal advice that this doesn’t need an admission of guilt from the former Yukos Oil Co. owner. The recommendation will be discussed at the council’s meeting with Medvedev next month. [PM and President-elect Putin will take over as head of state on May 7].

 

In Review:


This week we added two European positions to the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio, Spain (EWP) and Greece (GREK), both on the short side.

 

Despite the market’s recent optimism around the two rounds of 36-month LTROs and that we “cleared” Greece’s debt restructuring, we want to temper expectations that Europe is “out and in the clear”.  While the LTROs have added needed liquidity to the system, there’s no evidence (yet) that this liquidity has enter the real economy. One negative data point we do continue to observe is Overnight Bank Deposits to the ECB, which is just off its high at €727.7 Billion. Further, this injection does nothing for solvency issues of banks; Spanish, Portuguese, and Italian lenders on the metric of 5YR CDS continue to flash risk levels that are comfortably above 350bps! While a re-pricing of Greek debt saw its 10YR sovereign bond yield fall nearly 1900bps in a straight line early this week, risk is clear and present in Portugal, with the 10YR at 13.6%. And while yields in Italy and Spain have trended lower YTD, there’s nothing that concretely justifies yields maintaining this retreat short of a Monti - Draghi handshake to take care of Italia.

 

While “cheap” credit flows should help to spark the region’s economy, it will be off a recessionary level in 2012, as outsized debt and deficits budge little and austerity takes a firm toll not only on confidence and spending but also government tax receipts.  All this spells a very long runway ahead of slow growth, alongside threats of rising inflation, most notably from energy costs. 

 

News out this week that Spain missed its 2011 deficit target was particularly representative of the structural fiscal imbalances versus expectations across much of the region.  To review, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy, elected in December of 2011, inherited a budget that was proved to be fudged, with the 2011 budget deficit now estimated at 8.5% of GDP versus a previous target at 6%. This gap has thrown off the 2012 budget deficit reduction program, and the government unilaterally (ex-EU agreement) revised its 2012 deficit target to 5.8% versus the original 4.4% promise.  The EU this week said that wasn’t enough, and mandated that additional budget cuts worth 0.5% of GDP must be carried out.

 

Sound a bit like Greece? Can the market really believe Troika’s report that Greece can reduce its public debt to 120% of GDP by 2020? Does Troika even (truly) believe that given the myriad of variables between now and then?  We don’t think so. What governments must realize is that shaving the fat off budgets is essential, but so are the expectations around meeting those cuts. Whether the EU or the countries themselves are responsible for setting goals that are too optimistic or too lenient (in trimming fat) is for another discussion, yet what’s important is that realistic targets are set around which markets can set expectations.

 

We do think that taking the pain now through fiscal austerity will sacrifice growth, but this is a necessary condition given the years of excess spending by the PIIGS (and others).  

 

The road to maintain the existing Eurozone fabric is a clouded one. However, if it’s going to work, it will come at the hand of this fiscal consolidation and further bailouts to support the Eurozone project. There are plenty of arguments to justify an exit or dissolution of the Union, however here and now we won’t discount the fortitude of Eurocrats to hold the whole together, with shoe lace and all.   

 

 

CDS Risk Monitor:

 

Short of Portugal, we did not see huge moves in 5YR CDS on a week-over-week basis. Portugal saw the biggest gain at +82bps to 1,311bps, followed by Ireland +15bps to 635bps.  France saw the biggest drop (-10bps) to 169bps.  

 

Weekly European Monitor: Guiding Expectations - 11. cds   a

 

Weekly European Monitor: Guiding Expectations - 11. cds   b

 


Data Dump:


Eurozone Economic Sentiment 11 MAR vs -8.1 FEB

Eurozone CPI 2.7% FEB Y/Y vs 2.7% JAN

Eurozone Industrial Production -1.2% JAN Y/Y (exp. -0.8%) vs -1.8% DEC

EU New Car Registrations -9.7% FEB Y/Y vs -7.1% JAN

Eurozone Trade Balance -7.6B EUR JAN (exp. -3B EUR) vs 9.1B EUR DEC

 

Germany Wholesale Price Index 1.9% FEB M/M (exp. 1.0%) vs 1.2% JAN   [2.6% FEB Y/Y (exp. 2.6%) vs 3.0% JAN]

Germany ZEW Current Account 37.6 MAR (exp. 41.5) vs 40.3 FEB

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment 22.3 MAR (exp. 10) vs 5.4 FEB (highest since June 2010)  

 

Italy Q4 GDP Final -0.7% Q/Q (exp. -0.7%) vs previous -0.7%   [-0.4% Y/Y (exp. -0.5%) vs previous -0.5%]

Italy CPI 3.4% FEB Final Y/Y UNCH

 

France CPI 2.5% FEB Y/Y (exp. +2.6%) vs 2.6% JAN  [fell for 2nd month]

 

Spain CPI 1.9% FEB Final Y/Y UNCH

Spain House Transactions -26.3% JAN Y/Y vs -25.3% DEC

Spain House Price ToT Homes Y/Y -4.2% in Q4 Y/Y vs -2.8% in Q3

 

Switzerland Producers and Import Prices 0.8% FEB M/M (exp. +0.2%) vs 0.0% JAN   [-1.9% FEB Y/Y (exp. -2.4%) vs -2.4% JAN]

Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey Expectations of Growth 0.0 MAR vs -21.2 FEB

 

UK Claimant Count Rate 5% FEB vs 5% JAN

UK Jobless Claims Chg 7.2K FEB (est. 5K) vs 7K JAN (12th straight increase)

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 8.4% JAN vs 8.4% DEC

 

Greece Unemployment Rate 20.7% Q4 vs 17.7% in Q3

Greece Industrial Production -5.0% JAN Y/Y vs -11.3% DEC

 

Sweden Unemployment Rate (SA) 6% FEB vs 6% JAN

Sweden Unemployment Rate 7.8% FEB vs 8% JAN

 

Ireland CPI 2.1% FEB Y/Y vs 2.2% JAN

Ireland Industrial Production -0.5% JAN Y/Y vs -3.5% DEC

 

Portugal CPI 3.6% FEB Y/Y vs 3.4% JAN

 

 

Interest Rate Decisions:


(3/14) Norway Norges Bank CUT Deposit Rates 50bps to 1.75%.

(3/15) Switzerland SNB 3M Libor Target Rate UNCH at 0.00%


 

The European Week Ahead:


Monday: Jan. Eurozone Current Account, Construction Output; Jan. Italy Industrial Orders and Sales

 

Tuesday:  Greece 14.5 B Euro Bond Redemption; Feb. Germany Producer Prices; Feb. UK CPI, Retail Price Index, RPI, CBI Trends; Jan. Greece Current Account; Jan. Spain Trade Balance  

 

Wednesday: UK BoE Minutes, Osborne Announces Budget Plans; Feb. UK Public Finances, Public Sector Net Borrowing

 

Thursday: Mar. Eurozone Consumer Confidence and PMI Manufacturing, Services, Composite – Advance; Jan. Eurozone Industrial New Orders; Mar. Germany PMI Manufacturing and Services – Advance; Feb. UK Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence; Mar. France PMI Manufacturing and Services – Preliminary

 

Friday: Feb. UK BBA Loans for House Purchases; Mar. France Production Outlook Indicator, Business Confidence Indicator, Q4 France Wages – Final; Jan. Italy Retail Sales

 

 

Extended Calendar Call-Outs:


22 April:  French Elections (Round 1) begin, to conclude in May.

 

29 April:  Potential Greek Presidential Elections.

 

30 June:  Deadline for EU Banks to meet €106 billion capital target/the 9% Tier 1 capital ratio.

 

1 July:  ESM to come into force.

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next