THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 16, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -2.11% downside to 1373 and 0.03% upside to 1403. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 579 (2015) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 844.45 (-1.03%)
  • VIX:  15.42 0.72% YTD PERFORMANCE: -34.10%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.06 from 1.01 (4.95%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 39.74
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.34 from 2.28
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.00 from 1.92 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: CPI (M/m), Feb., est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Feb., est. 0.4% (prior 0.0%)
  • 9:15am: Capacity Utilization, Feb., est. 78.8% (prior 78.5%)
  • 9:55am: U. Michigan Consumer, Mar P, est. 76.0 (prior 75.3)
  • 10am: API Monthly report
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 3pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Frankfurt, Germany 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • President Obama attends fundraisers in Chicago, Atlanta
    • House meets in pro forma session. 10am
    • Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum campaign in Illinois ahead of state’s Republican primary March 20
    • Supreme Court not in session 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Apple iPad goes on sale in 10 countries, betting on sharper screen, faster chip to extend lead over Google, Amazon.com in market for tablet computers
  • Consumer-price index probably increased 0.4%, most in 10 months, as gasoline prices climbed, economists’ est.
  • Google said to be investigated by regulators in U.S., Europe for bypassing privacy settings of users of Apple’s Safari Web browser: WSJ
  • UPS says takeover talks extended with TNT Express after TNT rebuffed initial EU4.89b offer received on Feb. 11
  • U.S., U.K. haven’t reached any agreement on releasing strategic petroleum reserves or set timetable for action, White House press secretary Jay Carney said yesterday
  • Italy said to pay Morgan Stanley $3.4b to unwind derivative contracts from 1990s that had backfired
  • Johnson & Johnson’s Incivo won backing of U.K.’s health-cost regulator in draft recommendation for treatment of hepatitis C
  • SAP seeks to become “major provider” of database software, will disclose plans at April 10 news conference in CA: Reuters
  • U.S. ITC may decide on review of judge’s finding that cleared Motorola Mobility of infringing three Apple patents, 5pm
  • Cheniere Energy confident of winning U.S. approval to build two natgas export terminals on Gulf Coast, even as opponents seek to block shipments
  • National Public Finance Guarantee said to participate in mediated talks with Stockton, Calif., under new state law intended to forestall bankruptcy filing
  • Sears plans to close 53 specialty stores in 1H 2012: LA Times
  • Port of Dampier, used by Rio Tinto, shutting down in anticipation of large swells, co. spokesman says, as Tropical Cyclone Lua strengthened into severe storm off Australia
  • No U.S. IPOs expected to price
  • SATURDAY: Missouri Republican presidential caucuses  

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – after attempting to SPR global Consumers yesterday while they were watching some hoops, the Administration of Central Planning denied they’d ever politicize what the DOE defines (govt website next to the slide deck on Obama’s opinion on oil supply/demand) as “the last line of defense against a supply disruption." We bought oil on that as all 3 of our durations of support held like the rock of Gibraltar. 

  • India Raises Gold-Import Tax for Second Time; Prices Drop
  • Gold Bulls Weakest in Two Months as Economy Gains: Commodities
  • Oil Halts Weekly Decline Before U.S. Consumer Confidence Data
  • Wheat Drops as Canadian Production May Increase; Soybeans Fall
  • Copper Heads for Weekly Advance as U.S. Rebound May Spur Demand
  • Sugar Climbs to 4-Month High as EU May Import; Cocoa Retreats
  • Gold May Decline in London on Improving U.S. Economic Outlook
  • Stalemate Hits $10 Billion Czech Nuclear Plan on Funding: Energy
  • Deripaska’s Vision For Rusal Leads to Losses for Li Ka-Shing
  • McDonald’s, Carrefour Targets of China Consumer Rights Campaign
  • Vale, Newmont Retain Appetite for Indonesia Mines Amid Stake Cut
  • YPF Bonds Fall as Provinces Pull Field Permits: Argentina Credit
  • Bullish Oil Bet Drop Seen as Peak in Iran Rally: Energy Markets
  • Soybeans Gain to Six-Month High on Exports
  • Corn in Dalian Rises to Record on Speculation of Smaller Supply
  • Viterra Sales Process Underway After Getting Buyer Interest
  • Japan May Ship More Copper to Make Up for Dwindling Local Demand 

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CURRENCIES


USD – this is easily the most bullish development we’ve seen since Bernanke’s attempts to debauch the dollar (Jan 25th) – gravity. US Dollar Index should close up for the 3rd consecutive week – while it may not have been for Apple and BAC, this has been a huge headwind for anything Bonds, Gold, Foreign Currency, etc. this week. Yes, anyone who is diversified across Global Macro got tagged by this Correlation Risk.

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS


INDIA – the Indians told the world they got off the Greenspan-put drugs (no rate cut), so the world sold their equity market down another -1% overnight (down -2.6% in 2 days). India is a net importer of inflation (oil) and has seen their yield curve go flat.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team