TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 9, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 37 points or -1.53% downside to 1345 and 1.18% upside to 1382.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1777 (53)
- VOLUME: NYSE 716.61 (-10.53%)
- VIX: 17.95 -5.87% YTD PERFORMANCE: -23.29%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.98 from 1.74 (-43.68%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 39.72
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 2.01 from 2.01
- YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.71
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, Jan., est. -$49.0b (prior -$48.8b)
- 8:30am: Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb., est. 210k (prior 243k)
- 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Feb., est. 8.3% (prior 8.3%)
- 8:30am: WASDE corn, soybean, cotton, wheat
- 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, Jan., est. 0.6% (prior 1.0%)
- 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
GOVERNMENT:
- Obama to speak on economy at Rolls-Royce aerospace facility in Richmond, Va. 12:30pm, then fly to Houston for campaign events
- CFTC meets to consider issuance of proposed rules, 9:30am
- House meets in pro forma session, 11am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. payrolls may have increased by 210k in Feb. after rising 243k in Jan., economists est.
- Investors with 95.7% of Greece’s privately held bonds will participate sovereign debt restructuring after govt said it will trigger an option forcing them to take part
- UPS said to be near deal to buy TNT Express after initial offer of EU4.9b rejected
- El Paso holds a shareholder vote on $21.1b Kinder Morgan deal
- Watch video-game makers after NPD reported U.S. video-game sales fell 20% in Feb. to $1.06b
- Texas Instruments cut 1Q sales, profit forecasts; watch chipmakers, suppliers
- Molycorp agreed to buy Canada’s Neo Material Technologies for ~C$1.3b ($1.3b) to increase Chinese sales, gain technology
- Boston Scientific agreed to buy Cameron Health for as much as $1.35b to add a new kind of defibrillator
- Wal-Mart wins South African lawsuit contesting Massmart takeover
- London Stock Exchange agreed to buy a majority stake in LCH.Clearnet Group for GBP463m ($613m)
- NRC deadline for issuing orders on safety improvements developed in year since radiation crisis at Fukushima, Japan
- No U.S. IPOs expected to price: Bloomberg data
- SATURDAY: China trade data for February
- SATURDAY: Kansas Republican presidential caucuses
- SUNDAY: Daylight savings time: Clocks spring forward in most of U.S. (Europe shifts on March 25)
EARNINGS:
- Hibbett Sports (HIBB) 6:30am, $0.56
- Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 7am, $0.79
- Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) 7:30am, $(0.15)
- Ann (ANN) 7:35am, $0.09
- Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, $(0.05)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Gold Bulls Strengthen as Wagers Reach $131 Billion: Commodities
- Soybeans Climb to Five-Month High as Brazil Cuts Crop Forecast
- Oil Rises a Third Day on U.S. Economic Outlook, Greek Debt Swap
- India to Review Cotton-Export Ban as China Seeks Withdrawal
- China February Copper Output Rebounds From an 11-Month Low
- Gold May Rise as Low Interest Rates Boost Demand for the Metal
- Tocom to Discuss Alliance With CME Next Week, Ezaki Says
- Copper Traders Probably Added to Wagers That Prices Will Decline
- Palm Oil Surges to Nine-Month High on Speculation Reserves Fell
- Rare-Earth Bust Spurs Molycorp’s Biggest Takeover Bet: Real M&A
- Coffee Falls on Speculation Supplies Will Improve; Cocoa Drops
- Iran Oil Risk Threatens Peak Profit for Naphtha: Energy Markets
- Shipping Lines’ Asia-Europe Rate Rise May Fail: Chart of the Day
- Oil Rises on Greek Debt Swap, U.S. Outlook
- Copper Gains for Third Day on China Inflation, Industrial Output
- Rubber Futures Advance as China’s Inflation Eases: Tokyo Mover
- Chalco to Seek to Raise as Much as 8 Billion Yuan in Share Sale
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team