THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 9, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 37 points or -1.53% downside to 1345 and 1.18% upside to 1382. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1777 (53) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 716.61 (-10.53%)
  • VIX:  17.95 -5.87% YTD PERFORMANCE: -23.29%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 0.98 from 1.74 (-43.68%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 39.72
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.01 from 2.01
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.71 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Jan., est. -$49.0b (prior -$48.8b)
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb., est. 210k (prior 243k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Feb., est. 8.3% (prior 8.3%)
  • 8:30am: WASDE corn, soybean, cotton, wheat
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Inventories, Jan., est. 0.6% (prior 1.0%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama to speak on economy at Rolls-Royce aerospace facility in Richmond, Va. 12:30pm, then fly to Houston for campaign events
    • CFTC meets to consider issuance of proposed rules, 9:30am
    • House meets in pro forma session, 11am 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. payrolls may have increased by 210k in Feb. after rising 243k in Jan., economists est.
  • Investors with 95.7% of Greece’s privately held bonds will participate sovereign debt restructuring after govt said it will trigger an option forcing them to take part
  • UPS said to be near deal to buy TNT Express after initial offer of EU4.9b rejected
  • El Paso holds a shareholder vote on $21.1b Kinder Morgan deal
  • Watch video-game makers after NPD reported U.S. video-game sales fell 20% in Feb. to $1.06b
  • Texas Instruments cut 1Q sales, profit forecasts; watch chipmakers, suppliers
  • Molycorp agreed to buy Canada’s Neo Material Technologies for ~C$1.3b ($1.3b) to increase Chinese sales, gain technology
  • Boston Scientific agreed to buy Cameron Health for as much as $1.35b to add a new kind of defibrillator
  • Wal-Mart wins South African lawsuit contesting Massmart takeover
  • London Stock Exchange agreed to buy a majority stake in LCH.Clearnet Group for GBP463m ($613m)
  • NRC deadline for issuing orders on safety improvements developed in year since radiation crisis at Fukushima, Japan
  • No U.S. IPOs expected to price: Bloomberg data
  • SATURDAY: China trade data for February
  • SATURDAY: Kansas Republican presidential caucuses
  • SUNDAY: Daylight savings time: Clocks spring forward in most of U.S. (Europe shifts on March 25) 

EARNINGS:

    • Hibbett Sports (HIBB) 6:30am, $0.56
    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 7am, $0.79
    • Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) 7:30am, $(0.15)
    • Ann (ANN) 7:35am, $0.09
    • Carnival (CCL) 9:15am, $(0.05) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Bulls Strengthen as Wagers Reach $131 Billion: Commodities
  • Soybeans Climb to Five-Month High as Brazil Cuts Crop Forecast
  • Oil Rises a Third Day on U.S. Economic Outlook, Greek Debt Swap
  • India to Review Cotton-Export Ban as China Seeks Withdrawal
  • China February Copper Output Rebounds From an 11-Month Low
  • Gold May Rise as Low Interest Rates Boost Demand for the Metal
  • Tocom to Discuss Alliance With CME Next Week, Ezaki Says
  • Copper Traders Probably Added to Wagers That Prices Will Decline
  • Palm Oil Surges to Nine-Month High on Speculation Reserves Fell
  • Rare-Earth Bust Spurs Molycorp’s Biggest Takeover Bet: Real M&A
  • Coffee Falls on Speculation Supplies Will Improve; Cocoa Drops
  • Iran Oil Risk Threatens Peak Profit for Naphtha: Energy Markets
  • Shipping Lines’ Asia-Europe Rate Rise May Fail: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Rises on Greek Debt Swap, U.S. Outlook
  • Copper Gains for Third Day on China Inflation, Industrial Output
  • Rubber Futures Advance as China’s Inflation Eases: Tokyo Mover
  • Chalco to Seek to Raise as Much as 8 Billion Yuan in Share Sale 

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team