TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 8, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.56% downside to 1345 and 0.77% upside to 1363.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
With Bernanke’s Policy To Inflate back into the whispers of sweet nothing volume rallies again, we are still tasked with risk managing the immediate-term ranges of being long Inflation until the Growth music stops. Fun.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1724 (4233)
- VOLUME: NYSE 800.91 (-8.76%)
- VIX: 19.07 -8.62% YTD PERFORMANCE: -18.50%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.74 from 1.63 (6.75%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 40.33
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 1.99 from 1.98
- YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.67
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: Bank of England rate decision, est. 0.5%
- 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), Feb.
- 7:45am: ECB rate decision, est. 1.0%
- 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Mar. 3, est. 351k (prior 351k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Mar. 4, est. -39.0
- 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
- 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama meets with Ghanaian President John Atta Mills
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will tour BNSF facility in, Texas, discuss economy at event hosted by Dallas Regional Chamber, 4pm
- House, Senate in session
- House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood on budget request, 9:30am
- House Energy and Commerce panel holds hearing on FDA user fees, accelerated approval of treatments, with testimony from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals CEO John Maraganore, 10am
- House Budget Committee meets on FY2013 budget, 10am
- Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Attorney General Eric Holder on Justice Department’s budget request, 10am
- House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hears from Energy Secretary Steven Chu on budget, 10am
- Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from acting Federal Housing Administration head Carol Galante, 10am
- Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on budget request, 10am
- Senate Homeland Security Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on budget request, 2:30pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- ECB may lift its 2012 inflation forecast above the 2% price- stability threshold today, economists est.; interest rate seen to remain at 1%
- AIG shares said to be offered at $29 each as Treasury reduces stake
- AT&T in talks to sell a majority stake in its Yellow Pages unit to Cerberus
- Investors with ~60% of the Greek bonds eligible for debt swap have so far indicated they’ll participate, putting it on verge of biggest sovereign restructuring in history
- U.S. said to warn Apple, publishers over e-book pricing: WSJ
- FDA staff issues report of new class of pain medicines that target nerve growth factor
- Facebook gets $8b credit line while adding to banker list
- Toyota revamps North American management to boost regional unity
- McDonald’s to release monthly sales at 7:58am; Texas Instruments to provide mid-quarter update post-market
- Rick Santorum-backers pressuring Newt Gingrich to drop out of Republican presidential contest
- Italian-German 10-yr yield spread falls to least since Sept. 1
EARNINGS:
- Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6 a.m., $0.65
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM CN) 6 a.m., $1.93
- Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 6:30 a.m., $1.13
- Navistar (NAV) 7 a.m., $(0.27)
- Buckle (BKE) 7 a.m., $1.15
- Viterra (VT CN) 7 a.m., $0.21
- AltaGas Ltd (ALA CN) 7:24 a.m., $0.30
- Cominar Real Estate Investment Trust (CUFu CN) 8 a.m., $0.43
- John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8 a.m., $0.94
- JinkoSolar (JKS), Pre-mkt, ($1.88)
- Cooper (COO) 4:01 p.m., $1.04
- Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 4:01 p.m., $0.67
- Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01 p.m., $0.38
- Renren (RENN) 5 p.m., $-
- Approach Resources (AREX) Post-Mkt, $0.22
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Drought Tightens Corn Supply Before Record Harvest: Commodities
- World Food Prices Climb for a Second Month on Grains, Oils
- Oil Rises a Second Day on Signs Sanctions Cutting Iran Exports
- Copper Climbs Most in a Week on Signs of U.S. Rebound, Stocks
- Gold Climbs as Decline in Dollar’s Value May Signal More Demand
- Soybeans Gain on Speculation USDA to Cut Brazil Crop Estimate
- BofA Says U.K. LNG Imports May Halt If Japan Reactors Stay Shut
- Palm-Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Set to Reach Six-Month Low
- Sugar Imports by Bangladesh More Than Double on Crop, Price
- BHP Stirs Memory of Alcan Writedowns as Shale Gas Sours: Energy
- Asia Gasoil Crack Falls; Hin Leong Buys Fuel Cargo: Oil Products
- Global Insurers Targeted in Proposed U.S. Sanctions Against Iran
- China Said to Stop New Crushing Plants Using Imported Rapeseed
- Oil Rallies More From Dollar Outlook Than Iran: Chart of the Day
- China Wants India’s Cotton Ban Lifted as Ministers Review Curb
- Sugar Falls as Producers Sell After Price Rises; Coffee Rose
- U.S. Spring May Be Warmer Than Normal, AccuWeather Forecasts
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team