THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 8, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.56% downside to 1345 and 0.77% upside to 1363. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

With Bernanke’s Policy To Inflate back into the whispers of sweet nothing volume rallies again, we are still tasked with risk managing the immediate-term ranges of being long Inflation until the Growth music stops. Fun.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1724 (4233) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 800.91 (-8.76%)
  • VIX:  19.07 -8.62% YTD PERFORMANCE: -18.50%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.74 from 1.63 (6.75%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 40.33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 1.99 from 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.67 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: Bank of England rate decision, est. 0.5%
  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), Feb.
  • 7:45am: ECB rate decision, est. 1.0%
  • 8am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Mar. 3, est. 351k (prior 351k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Mar. 4, est. -39.0
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama meets with Ghanaian President John Atta Mills
  • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will tour BNSF facility in, Texas, discuss economy at event hosted by Dallas Regional Chamber, 4pm
  • House, Senate in session
    • House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood on budget request, 9:30am
    • House Energy and Commerce panel holds hearing on FDA user fees, accelerated approval of treatments, with testimony from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals CEO John Maraganore, 10am
    • House Budget Committee meets on FY2013 budget, 10am
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Attorney General Eric Holder on Justice Department’s budget request, 10am
    • House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hears from Energy Secretary Steven Chu on budget, 10am
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from acting Federal Housing Administration head Carol Galante, 10am
    • Senate Appropriations subcommittee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on budget request, 10am
    • Senate Homeland Security Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on budget request, 2:30pm 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • ECB may lift its 2012 inflation forecast above the 2% price- stability threshold today, economists est.; interest rate seen to remain at 1%
  • AIG shares said to be offered at $29 each as Treasury reduces stake
  • AT&T in talks to sell a majority stake in its Yellow Pages unit to Cerberus
  • Investors with ~60% of the Greek bonds eligible for debt swap have so far indicated they’ll participate, putting it on verge of biggest sovereign restructuring in history
  • U.S. said to warn Apple, publishers over e-book pricing: WSJ
  • FDA staff issues report of new class of pain medicines that target nerve growth factor
  • Facebook gets $8b credit line while adding to banker list
  • Toyota revamps North American management to boost regional unity
  • McDonald’s to release monthly sales at 7:58am; Texas Instruments to provide mid-quarter update post-market
  • Rick Santorum-backers pressuring Newt Gingrich to drop out of Republican presidential contest
  • Italian-German 10-yr yield spread falls to least since Sept. 1 

EARNINGS:

    • Smithfield Foods (SFD) 6 a.m., $0.65
    • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM CN) 6 a.m., $1.93
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 6:30 a.m., $1.13
    • Navistar (NAV) 7 a.m., $(0.27)
    • Buckle (BKE) 7 a.m., $1.15
    • Viterra (VT CN) 7 a.m., $0.21
    • AltaGas Ltd (ALA CN) 7:24 a.m., $0.30
    • Cominar Real Estate Investment Trust (CUFu CN) 8 a.m., $0.43
    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8 a.m., $0.94
    • JinkoSolar (JKS), Pre-mkt, ($1.88)
    • Cooper (COO) 4:01 p.m., $1.04
    • Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 4:01 p.m., $0.67
    • Aeropostale (ARO) 4:01 p.m., $0.38
    • Renren (RENN) 5 p.m., $-
    • Approach Resources (AREX) Post-Mkt, $0.22 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Drought Tightens Corn Supply Before Record Harvest: Commodities
  • World Food Prices Climb for a Second Month on Grains, Oils
  • Oil Rises a Second Day on Signs Sanctions Cutting Iran Exports
  • Copper Climbs Most in a Week on Signs of U.S. Rebound, Stocks
  • Gold Climbs as Decline in Dollar’s Value May Signal More Demand
  • Soybeans Gain on Speculation USDA to Cut Brazil Crop Estimate
  • BofA Says U.K. LNG Imports May Halt If Japan Reactors Stay Shut
  • Palm-Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Set to Reach Six-Month Low
  • Sugar Imports by Bangladesh More Than Double on Crop, Price
  • BHP Stirs Memory of Alcan Writedowns as Shale Gas Sours: Energy
  • Asia Gasoil Crack Falls; Hin Leong Buys Fuel Cargo: Oil Products
  • Global Insurers Targeted in Proposed U.S. Sanctions Against Iran
  • China Said to Stop New Crushing Plants Using Imported Rapeseed
  • Oil Rallies More From Dollar Outlook Than Iran: Chart of the Day
  • China Wants India’s Cotton Ban Lifted as Ministers Review Curb
  • Sugar Falls as Producers Sell After Price Rises; Coffee Rose
  • U.S. Spring May Be Warmer Than Normal, AccuWeather Forecasts 

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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