• It's Coming...

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

MACRO NOTES

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

Can’t say we didn’t say Growth Slowing was in motion…

  1. INDIA – after getting tagged for a -1.6% loss last wk, down both days this week and down -6.8% since topping on Feb 21. With inflation running higher than nominal growth, this is what you get – modern stagflation. That’s why India’s Yield Curve has gone flat.
  2. COMMODITIES – Dollar Up = Deflates The Inflation; but it doesn’t all happen in a day. This should be bullish provided that the USD Index can hold its gains > $79.03 TREND line support – a Romney win tonight in Ohio could do it. What’s good for the USD is good for US Consumption. After snapping my TRADE line of 1735 last wk, Gold testing TREND line of 1691 right now.
  3. GROWTH – Small Caps, Basic Materials, Industrials – they’re all leading indicators inasmuch as Dr Copper and 10yr yields are – they are all telling me my model isn’t broken. The Old Wall’s is. Growth Slowing, globally, occurs b/c A) debt structurally impairs growth and B) inflation slows growth. Not from every time/price and debt levels – just these ones.

1366 is the line to watch now on the SP500.

KM

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

<chart2>


QUICK SERVICE

MCD: McDonald’s franchisee Arcos Dorados is set to open no fewer than 50 locations in Brazil during 2012, according to Brazilian media publication, Valor.

ARCO: Arcos Dorados said yesterday that Brazil comps were up 6.3% in 4Q.  The short-term outlook is set to be “challenging”, according to management, with weaker currencies likely affecting results this year.

THI: Tim Hortons is to buy back up to 1.2mm shares for cancellation.

 

CASUAL DINING

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s is rated “Buy” by Miller Tabek with a price target of $44.

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s was revealed yesterday as a “Long Research Tactical Idea” at Morgan Stanley.

DRI: Darden Restaurants was added to Bank of America’s list of favored equities.

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s outperformed on accelerating volume following yesterday’s upgrades.

DIN: Dine Equity underperformed the group on accelerating volume as the company presented at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference.

THE HBM: MCD, ARCO, THI, PFCB, DRI - stocks

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst