THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 6, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.61% downside to 1356 and 0.12% upside to 1366.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -586 (-427)
- VOLUME: NYSE 702.72 (0.40%)
- VIX: 18.05 4.40% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.86%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.04 from 2.05 (-0.49%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
GROWTH – Small Caps, Basic Materials, Industrials – they’re all leading indicators inasmuch as Dr Copper and 10yr yields are – they are all telling us our model isn’t broken. The Old Wall’s is. Growth Slowing, globally, occurs because A) debt structurally impairs growth and B) inflation slows growth. Not from every time/price and debt levels – just these ones.
- TED SPREAD: 41.36
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 1.97 from 2.01
- YIELD CURVE: 1.68 from 1.72
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- No major U.S. economic releases scheduled
- 7:30am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills, $26b 52-week bills
- Noon: DOE short-term outlook
- 4:30pm: API inventories
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama to hold news conference, 1:15pm
- Obama meets with members of Business Roundtable to discuss jobs, economy, 7:10pm
- Super Tuesday primary vote
- House, Senate in session:
- Senate Finance Committee holds hearing on tax overhaul options, 10am
- House Appropriations subcommittee hears from SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro on its budget request, 10am
- House Appropriations subcommittee hears from HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius on the agency’s budget, 2pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Super Tuesday primary day, with contests in states including Ohio, Tennessee, Georgia
- Europe’s economy contracted 0.3% in 4Q as investment declined the most since 2009 and exports, consumer spending dropped
- Private investors that have so far declared their participation in Greece’s debt restructuring hold ~20% of the bonds involved in a swap required for an international bailout
- Google, Motorola Mobility must give Android data to Apple as part of patent lawsuit, judge ruled yday
- AIG may have more flexibility to buy back its stock from the U.S. govt. after divesting holdings of AIA: Bernstein
- Macau gaming revenue may grow at low double-digit pace in 2012, down from 42% in 2011: Macao Daily
- Automakers prepare for deepening slump in European car mkt
- Paulson’s Advantage Plus fund fell 1.5% in Feb., paring 2012 gain
- Tornadoes that slammed 5 states last wk may generate as much as $2b in claims costs for insurers: Eqecat
EARNINGS:
- Bridgepoint Education (BPI) 7am, $0.38
- Kronos Worldwide (KRO) 7am, $0.47
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS CN) 7:28am, C$1.15
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 7:30am, $0.88
- United Natural Foods (UNFI) 7:30am, $0.44
- Vail Resorts (MTN) 8am, $1.38
- Evertz Technologies (ET CN) 4 p.m., C$0.24
- Linamar (LNR CN) 4 p.m., C$0.41
- Pandora Media (P) 4:02 p.m., $(0.02)
- Mako Surgical (MAKO) 4:05 p.m., $(0.14)
- Provident Energy Ltd (PVE CN) 4:43 p.m., C$0.21
- Paramount Resources Ltd (POU CN) Post-mkt, C$(0.25)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COMMODITIES – Dollar Up = Deflates The Inflation; but it doesn’t all happen in a day. This should be bullish provided that the USD Index can hold its gains > $79.03 TREND line support – a Romney win tonight in Ohio could do it. What’s good for the USD is good for US Consumption. After snapping our TRADE line of 1735 last week, Gold testing TREND line of 1691 right now.
- Mitsui Seeks Copper With Record $17 Billion Cash: Commodities
- Oil Declines on Growth Concern as Euro-Region Economy Contracts
- Global Wheat Harvests Seen Declining From Record on Lower Yield
- Copper Heads for Biggest Drop in 3 Weeks as Economies Contract
- Gold Falls to 6-Week Low as Stronger Dollar Cuts Investor Demand
- India’s Cotton-Export Ban Should Be Lifted, Minister Says
- Sugar Falls as Surplus May Soon Become Available; Coffee Slides
- India May Boost Iron Ore Exports to China After Freight Rate Cut
- Gasoline Supply Drop Seen as Pump Prices Rise: Energy Markets
- Billionaires Buy Gasoline Ships as Fuel Cargoes Expand: Freight
- Silver Calls at Highest Since 2010 on Economic Recovery: Options
- Google Runs Computers on Wind Power While Betting on Sun: Energy
- Saudi Aramco Projects May Face Higher Loan Costs: Arab Credit
- Cows Use More Corn Than Cars as Fuel Need Slows: BGOV Barometer
- Wheat Falls Most in Two Weeks on ‘Significant’ U.S. Rainfall
- China Won’t Import ‘Large Amounts’ of Corn on Stockpiles
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
INDIA – after getting tagged for a -1.6% loss last week, down both days this week and down -6.8% since topping on Feb 21. With inflation running higher than nominal growth, this is what you get – modern stagflation. That’s why India’s Yield Curve has gone flat.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team