THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 2, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 12 points or -0.81% downside to 1363 and 0.07% upside to 1375. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1033 (-1982) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 814.48 (-26.71%)
  • VIX:  17.26 -6.35% YTD PERFORMANCE: -26.24%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.29 from 2.48 (-7.66%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 40.85
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
  • 10-Year: 2.01 from 2.03
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.73 from 1.74 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9:45am: ISM New York
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 8pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks on U.S. economy in Vancouver 

     GOVERNMENT:

    • President Barack Obama visits wounded service members at Walter Reed hospital in Bethesda, Md.
    • House not in session, Senate in session
      • Senate meets to resume consideration of surface transportation bill, 10am 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Yelp priced 7.15m shares at $15 each in IPO after offering them at $12-$14 apiece
  • European leaders agreed to provide capital faster for planned permanent bailout fund
  • Settlement talks continue over blame for Deepwater Horizon sinking, oil spill; trial will otherwise begin March 5
  • Sands China profit beat estimates on jump in Macau casino sales; watch LVS
  • President Obama said to have told Wall Street donors that Democrats can’t unilaterally stop accepting money from big- dollar PACs
  • U.S. ITC may announce whether it will review judge’s finding that Motorola Mobility infringed one Microsoft patent and not six others, 5pm
  • Washington state Republican presidential caucuses take place tomorrow 

 EARNINGS:

    • Big Lots (BIG) 6 a.m., $1.74
    • Exelis (XLS) 7am, $0.56
    • Genesco (GCO) 7:35am, $1.67
    • TransAlta (TA CN) 8:54am, C$0.24 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


OIL – down 1% this morning but the lines that matter most continue to hold as the US Dollar’s bid remains fleeting. If Iran doesn’t send a missile somewhere soon, we’re going to need another line of storytelling out of Washington, fast. Immediate-term supports for Brent and WTI = $123.29 and 106.12, respectively. 

  • Copper Bull Streak Extends to Longest Since October: Commodities
  • Oil Heads for Weekly Decline After Saudi Arabia Denies Sabotage
  • Cocoa Falls as Rains May Boost Crops in West Africa; Sugar Rises
  • Soybeans Set for Third Weekly Gain on U.S. Sales, Drought Woes
  • Gold May Fall in London on Speculation Fed Will Refrain From QE3
  • Copper May Decline as Shanghai Stockpiles Increase to a Record
  • Bangladesh Plans to Import 100,000 Tons of Sugar From Brazil
  • Palm Oil Posts First Weekly Decline in Four as Exports Weaken
  • Economic Surprises Signal Rising Metals Demand: Chart of the Day
  • Coal to Japan Seen Near Record in Xstrata Talks: Energy Markets
  • Aluminium Bahrain Seeks to Keep Bribery Suit Against Alcoa Alive
  • Palm Oil Imports by Pakistan to Slump as Strike Shuts Factories
  • Oil Prices May Rise Next Week as Gasoline Gains, Survey Shows
  • Oil Falls as Saudi Arabia Denies Sabotage
  • Rubber Gains to 5-Month High as U.S. Data Boosts Demand Outlook
  • Saudis Suffered No Sabotage to Oil Facilities, Ministry Says
  • Russia Plans $8 Billion Siberia Investment to Boost Coal Exports 

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


RUSSIA – the most popular man with Putin right now has to be The Bernank. Putin gets paid in Petro-Dollars, and with the Petro straight up, Dollar straight down, what more could our comrade want heading into this weekend’s election? Russia +25.2% YTD. That’s probably a depression or deflation signal, or something.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


YEN – this is easily the most recognizable downward dog pattern that consensus still isn’t talking about. Straight down again (-0.46%) vs the USD this morning, the Japanese are about to engage in selling more sovereign debt than even the Americans and Europeans could. We have a 100 slide deck and conference call on Japan at 11AM EST today if you want to get up to speed on it.

 

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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