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THE HBM: SAFM, JACK, DPZ, MCD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Commentary from SAFM earnings call

 

Joe Sanderson, CEO of Sanderson Farms, is not getting bullish:

 

“…you can pick up bits and pieces that would make you be optimistic, I think there is a huge desire, more of a desire to be optimistic than there are facts that would make you optimistic.”

 

SAFM is cautious on soft demand from the food service industry and the overall macro environment.

 

 

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

 

Higher-Highs into another month-end markup – how exciting:

  1. MONTH-END – with an oversupply in the asset management industry we continue to see the last 6 days of the mth, trade significantly higher than the 1st 6 days of the new mth – this was the case on the way down (May-Sep 2011) inasmuch as it is on the way up. The SP500 has been up for 4 consecutive days, so they may as well make it 5 into mth-end and get it over with. AAPL is only up +17.5% for the mth. Probably doesn’t impact the indices, right?
  2. US DOLLAR – the next move here will be as critical as the down move has been since Bernanke signaled his Policy To Inflate on January 25th. Don’t forget that the USD is down -4.3% from its YTD high (that’s a lot) and that has had a huge impact on inflation expectations (TIP, GLD, OIL, etc). As we push past the LTRO (530B this morn) and into the March sov debt maturity spike in Japan (53T Yen), the USD should start trading on fresh factoring.
  3. OIL – 2 down days does not even a hyper short-term TRADE make. Both Brent and WTI have corrected to their most immediate-term TRADE lines of support ($122.01 and $105.46, respectively) and bounced. Bernanke’s semi-annual USD Debauchery speech is today, so that should be interesting to watch in real time vs TIP, GLD, OIL, etc. Inflation from here is not growth. Déjà vu Q1 2011.

 

India’s GDP growth dropped to 6.1% and is now a good 200-300bps below its inflation rate – that’s stagflation and that’s why India’s Yield Curve is now flat.

 

KM

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: SAFM, JACK, DPZ, MCD - subsector

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

JACK: Jack in the Box Domino’s Pizza held its first Investor Day since 2008.  We got a picture of how the company will look post Jack in the Box refranchising.  The company is going from cash flow negative to cash flow positive and generating $75 million in Free Cash Flow beginning in 2015.  We will have a detailed post up later today.  The company is anticipating nearly 100% profit flow-through on incremental sales at Jack in the Box.

 

DPZ: Domino’s Pizza was downgraded to “Neutral” from “Overweight” at J.P. Morgan.  The price target is $38 per share.

 

MCD: McDonald’s announced that half of the 225-250 new units in China opening this year will be drive-thrus.  The company is also launching a new ad campaign in China touting food quality in an attempt to compete with KFC. 

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

DPZ: Domino’s traded up yesterday on the strong 4Q EPS beat. 

 

TAST: Carrols underperformed on accelerating volume.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

DRI, PFCB, EAT: Casual diners gained on accelerating volume yesterday.

 

THE HBM: SAFM, JACK, DPZ, MCD - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


PSS: Domestic Drag Improves

"We've had limited blunt tools to work with…" – Michael Massey, CEO

 

It’s rare that we start off a note with a quote, but this one sums up PSS’ positioning over the 2H of 2011 pretty well. Despite this unfortunate circumstance, Q4 results suggest there are indeed signs of operational improvement underway – even if that improvement is simply getting rid of excess baggage of money-losing stores.  The offset is that while PLG blew out its revenue line, backlog slowed sharply.

 

The real question is whether these two changes on the margin are enough to impact the break-up of the company (90% of the reason why people own this thing).

 

We think it’s net neutral to positive.

  1. PLG: The key callout at PLG was the deceleration in Q1 PLG backlog up only +1% and down sharply from +17% in Q4. It’s worth noting a few items that are contributing to the decrease including 1) faster lead times so customers can order closer to need, 2) greater mix of auto-replenishment, 3) lower off-price and mid-tier bookings, and lastly 4) weather. It’s also important to recall that PLG production capacity was more constrained last year requiring a greater portion of backlog orders to secure the timing of orders, which is no longer the case. All in, it’s easy for the company to simply place blame here – as many companies do when orders slow or inventories build. They’ll need to explain this in far greater detail for someone buying the company outright. But enough of the factors at play pass the smell test for us initially.
  2. Payless Domestic: The simple fact that store count was down by 310 sequentially – or 6.5% -- at the same time we saw comps accelerate by 400bp sequentially (on a 1, 2 or 3-year basis) is proof positive for us that there’s value in the core. Check out our past research on store closure sensitivity. We’re gaining comfort with this part of the equation. We like the fact that we’re seeing some numbers work while the bankers are negotiating through the press for the highest bid. 

As we look out to 2012, we made a few adjustments to our model including a 1pt increase in comp to +3% with Q4 results turning positive, offset in part by a reduction in PLG wholesale growth to +11.5% from +12% reflecting weaker Q1 backlog trends. Offsetting these drivers is ~$120mm in lost revenue from underperforming store closures in F12, which we had previously modeled. The net result is a modest increase in our revenue growth estimate for next year to +1.6%.

 

We have gross margins expanding 106bps driven by fewer markdowns and easing product cost headwinds as well as modest SG&A leverage -30bps. The biggest delta is a lower tax rate (not exactly a high quality adjustment) accounting for the majority of the $0.10 increase to our F12 EPS estimate to $1.07 and $1.54 for F13.

 

 

PSS: Domestic Drag Improves - PSS S


THE M3: SANDS IMPORTED WORKERS QUOTA; MANILA BAY

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 29, 2012

 

 

SANDS GETS APPROVAL FOR IMPORTED WORKERS Macau Business

Sands China has been granted 2,500 new quotas to import workers.  In order to take advantage of the additional foreign labor quota, Sands also needs to hire 3,100 new local workers until March 31.  The Human Resources Office says the grant was valid between August last year and February 2012 to fill jobs at both the Venetian and Sands Cotai Central when it opens, according to media reports.

 

The Office has not said how many workers Sands has hired already, however, Sands CEO Edward Tracy says that the gaming operator expects to hire as many as 500 local workers after the mass recruitment fair held on Sunday and Monday.

 

MANILA BAY NOT ON VENETIAN'S PLANS Macau Daily Times

The Venetian has “no intention in investing in a project in Manila,” said Edward Tracy, CEO of Sands China. told Macau Daily Times, “after having spoken with Mike Leven” about the matter.  According to official sources, Manila Bay “does not fit the company investment profile”.

 

Sheraton Macao Hotel, Cotai Central is due to open September 12.  The facilities will include nine major meeting rooms, one grand ballroom, and 39 breakout rooms. The 3,863-room hotel is set to be “the premier meeting destination in the Asia Pacific."


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Demographic Reckoning

“Demography is destiny.”

-Auguste Comte

 

This Friday we are hosting a conference call for our macro subscribers on Japan titled, “Japan’s Debt, Deficit and Demographic Reckoning”.  (If you aren’t a macro subscriber and want to get access to the presentation, email  for subscription details.)  During the presentation, we will spend a fair amount of time framing up the economic history of Japan starting with the American occupation post World War II.  When contemplating economic history, I’m often reminded of George Santayana’s quote:

 

“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”


Certainly, history provides a critical frame of reference for Japan.  In particular, the last twenty years of economic history in Japan, which witnessed a massive build up in Japanese sovereign debt (currently 220% debt to EBITDA) and stagnating economic growth (just +8.5% nominal growth over the last 20 years), have set the table for Japan’s future.  But as my colleagues (hat tip to Darius Dale and Josefine Allain) and I have been grinding through this 80+ page presentation, the idea that Demography is Destiny truly represents the next chapter for Japan.

 

Currently, according to estimates from the CIA fact book, 23% of the Japanese population is over 65 years old.  This compares to only 13% in the United States and approximately 8% for the rest of the world.  As one of the world’s oldest countries, the burdens of supporting this aging population are seen directly in the Japanese federal budget.  In the 2012 Japanese federal budget, social security spending will be just over 29% of the entire budget.  This compares to 17% of the federal budget in 1990.

 

Due to a low fertility rate, the Japanese death rate currently exceeds the Japanese birth rate.  In the absence of meaningful immigration, this implies that the Japanese population is in decline.  As I outline in the Chart of the Day, based on the Japanese government’s own projections, their population will decline by more than 25% by 2050.  In conjunction with said declines, the Japanese population is aging and by 2050 more than 40% of the population will be over 65. (And to think at 38 I thought I was getting old!) The demographic future of Japan will only accelerate social security entitlement spending. 

 

The other concern with an aging population is growth.  Robert Arnot and Denis Chaves recently wrote a paper for the Financial Analysts Journal called, “Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy”, in which they attempt to quantify the relationship between demographics, growth and capital market returns based on 60 years of data.  They conclude that:

 

“ . . . senior citizens contribute to neither GDP growth nor stock and bond market returns; they divest to buy goods that they no longer produce.”


Based on their projections, the aging population will negatively impact Japanese growth over the next decade by ~-5% in aggregate. 

 

In theory an aging Japanese population, even if a major headwind for growth, could be overcome by the appropriate mechanisms and policy.  Unfortunately, after more than twenty years of deficit spending, Japan’s proverbial hands are increasingly tied by debt.  Specifically, Japan has massive non-negotiable financial burdens due to the second largest component in the proposed 2012 Japanese budget being debt service.

 

Servicing and interest on sovereign debt outstanding are projected to total 24% of Japan’s federal budget in 2012.  This line item has almost doubled since fiscal 1980, when it was at 13%.  I may not have a PHD in economics, but even I can tell you that if 1/4thof the Japanese federal budget is going towards debt service that spending is not generating an incremental return, either in the way of GDP growth or a higher standard of living, for Japanese society.

 

In a scenario analysis, we used a more normalized interest rate of 5.5%, which last occurred back in 1995, and applied that interest rate to the current debt servicing burden.  At this interest rate level, the Japanese debt servicing burden would be 100% of the current federal budget.  Clearly, increasing interest rates would squeeze out the government’s ability to more proactively invest in the nation and/or support rising social security expenditures.

 

To be sure, we are not projecting an imminent Japanese default, but in the short term with Japanese maturities accelerating in 2012, and specifically in March, there is increased concern as to Japan’s creditworthiness.  Based on the scenario I described above, the longer term question is whether Japan will be able to fund its future.  For the last twenty years, this funding has been enabled by a combination of high savings rates (both corporate and individual) and a current account surplus. Currently, we are seeing negative inflection points in both areas.

 

Ultimately, as Shakespeare wrote, “What is past is prologue”, and as it relates to Japan the past is indeed written.  Increasingly, Japan’s future is also already largely written by her Demographic Destiny.

 

Our immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), USD/JPY, and the SP500 are $1, $122.01-126.19, $79.71-80.98, and 1, respectively.

 

Keep your head up and your aging stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Demographic Reckoning - Chart of the Day

 

Demographic Reckoning - Virtual Portfolio


Demographic Reckoning

“Demography is destiny.”

-Auguste Comte

 

This Friday we are hosting a conference call for our macro subscribers on Japan titled, “Japan’s Debt, Deficit and Demographic Reckoning”.  (If you aren’t a macro subscriber and want to get access to the presentation, email  for subscription details.)  During the presentation, we will spend a fair amount of time framing up the economic history of Japan starting with the American occupation post World War II.  When contemplating economic history, I’m often reminded of George Santayana’s quote:

 

“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”


Certainly, history provides a critical frame of reference for Japan.  In particular, the last twenty years of economic history in Japan, which witnessed a massive build up in Japanese sovereign debt (currently 220% debt to EBITDA) and stagnating economic growth (just +8.5% nominal growth over the last 20 years), have set the table for Japan’s future.  But as my colleagues (hat tip to Darius Dale and Josefine Allain) and I have been grinding through this 80+ page presentation, the idea that Demography is Destiny truly represents the next chapter for Japan.

 

Currently, according to estimates from the CIA fact book, 23% of the Japanese population is over 65 years old.  This compares to only 13% in the United States and approximately 8% for the rest of the world.  As one of the world’s oldest countries, the burdens of supporting this aging population are seen directly in the Japanese federal budget.  In the 2012 Japanese federal budget, social security spending will be just over 29% of the entire budget.  This compares to 17% of the federal budget in 1990.

 

Due to a low fertility rate, the Japanese death rate currently exceeds the Japanese birth rate.  In the absence of meaningful immigration, this implies that the Japanese population is in decline.  As I outline in the Chart of the Day, based on the Japanese government’s own projections, their population will decline by more than 25% by 2050.  In conjunction with said declines, the Japanese population is aging and by 2050 more than 40% of the population will be over 65. (And to think at 38 I thought I was getting old!) The demographic future of Japan will only accelerate social security entitlement spending. 

 

The other concern with an aging population is growth.  Robert Arnot and Denis Chaves recently wrote a paper for the Financial Analysts Journal called, “Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy”, in which they attempt to quantify the relationship between demographics, growth and capital market returns based on 60 years of data.  They conclude that:

 

“ . . . senior citizens contribute to neither GDP growth nor stock and bond market returns; they divest to buy goods that they no longer produce.”


Based on their projections, the aging population will negatively impact Japanese growth over the next decade by ~-5% in aggregate. 

 

In theory an aging Japanese population, even if a major headwind for growth, could be overcome by the appropriate mechanisms and policy.  Unfortunately, after more than twenty years of deficit spending, Japan’s proverbial hands are increasingly tied by debt.  Specifically, Japan has massive non-negotiable financial burdens due to the second largest component in the proposed 2012 Japanese budget being debt service.

 

Servicing and interest on sovereign debt outstanding are projected to total 24% of Japan’s federal budget in 2012.  This line item has almost doubled since fiscal 1980, when it was at 13%.  I may not have a PHD in economics, but even I can tell you that if 1/4thof the Japanese federal budget is going towards debt service that spending is not generating an incremental return, either in the way of GDP growth or a higher standard of living, for Japanese society.

 

In a scenario analysis, we used a more normalized interest rate of 5.5%, which last occurred back in 1995, and applied that interest rate to the current debt servicing burden.  At this interest rate level, the Japanese debt servicing burden would be 100% of the current federal budget.  Clearly, increasing interest rates would squeeze out the government’s ability to more proactively invest in the nation and/or support rising social security expenditures.

 

To be sure, we are not projecting an imminent Japanese default, but in the short term with Japanese maturities accelerating in 2012, and specifically in March, there is increased concern as to Japan’s creditworthiness.  Based on the scenario I described above, the longer term question is whether Japan will be able to fund its future.  For the last twenty years, this funding has been enabled by a combination of high savings rates (both corporate and individual) and a current account surplus. Currently, we are seeing negative inflection points in both areas.

 

Ultimately, as Shakespeare wrote, “What is past is prologue”, and as it relates to Japan the past is indeed written.  Increasingly, Japan’s future is also already largely written by her Demographic Destiny.

 

Our immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), USD/JPY, and the SP500 are $1, $122.01-126.19, $79.71-80.98, and 1, respectively.

 

Keep your head up and your aging stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Demographic Reckoning - Chart of the Day

 

Demographic Reckoning - Virtual Portfolio


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