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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 24, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.69% downside to 1354 and 0.41% upside to 1369. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1314 (-1906) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 763.09 (4.67%)
  • VIX:  16.80 -7.64% YTD PERFORMANCE: -28.21%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.12 from 2.15 (-1.40%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 40.42
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.09%
  • 10-Year: 2.00 from 2.00
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.70 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 9:55am: UMichigan Consumer, Feb (F), est. 73 (prior 72.5)
  • 10:00am: New Home Sales, Jan., est. 315k, up 2.6% (prior 307k)
  • 10:45am: Fed’s Williams speaks in New York
  • 11:35am: Fed’s Bullard speaks on housing, monetary policy in New York
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 1:30pm: Fed’s Plosser, Dudley speak on monetary policy in New York 

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama meets with Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt to discuss European debt crisis in Chicago
    • U.S. Dept of Agriculture discusses crop outlook
    • Mitt Romney addresses Detroit Economic Club, 11:30am
    • House, Senate meet in pro forma sessions
    • NRC advisory panel meets to consider NextEra Energy Inc.’s Turkey Point extended power application, 8:30am
    • FCC meets on provisions of National Broadband plan, 9am    

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Apollo Global, others said to be near deal to acquire El Paso’s oil-exploration business for about $7b
  • Purchases of new homes in U.S. probably rose 2.6% in January to a nine-month high, economists est.
  • Bank of America is stopping sale of new home loans to Fannie Mae
  • Wynn Resorts’s Macau unit ejected Kazuo Okada from its board; Phillipine President Aquino orders probe
  • Lloyds posted full-year net loss that missed est.; Volkswagen reported record profit
  • U.K. GDP shrank 0.2% in 4Q, in line with forecast
  • Apple said to buy search startup Chomp for $50m
  • Watch Watson Pharma; last business day before Feb. 26 PDUFA decision date on Prochieve for prevention of preterm labor
  • G-20 finance ministers, central bank presidents to meet in Mexico City this weekend
  • Warren Buffett to release annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders tomorrow 

EARNINGS

    • Enerplus (ERF CN) 6 a.m., C$0.23
    • Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) 7 a.m., $0.26
    • Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings (ENDP) 7 a.m., $1.32
    • Interpublic Group (IPG) 7 a.m., $0.39
    • Pepco Holdings (POM) 7 a.m., $0.19
    • Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) 7 a.m., $0.25
    • Warner Chilcott (WCRX) 7 a.m., $0.90
    • United States Cellular (USM) 7:04 a.m., $0.24
    • Eldorado Gold (ELD CN) 7:30 a.m., $0.20
    • EW Scripps (SSP) 7:30 a.m., $0.10
    • J.C. Penney (JCP) 7:50 a.m., $0.67
    • Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) 8 a.m., $0.04
    • Washington Post (WPO), 8:30am, NA
    • American Water Works (AWK) 4:30 p.m., $0.33    

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


We couldn’t make up this #1 Headline on Bloomberg this morning if we tried – “STOCKS, OIL CLIMB ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY”

 

COPPER – the Doctor just doesn’t agree with this manic media headline at all – neither does the 10yr UST yield – both are failing at critical lines of resistance of $3.85/lb and 2.03%, respectively, this morning. Those who confuse inflation with growth will be doing it for the 3rd time since 2008. 

  • Copper Traders Most Bullish in Two Months on Demand: Commodities
  • U.S. Soybean Output May Rise to 3.25 Billion Bushels, USDA Says
  • Oil Rises a Seventh Day in Longest Winning Streak in Two Years
  • Gold May Gain in London as Weaker Dollar Spurs Investor Demand
  • Corn Declines as U.S. Acreage Expands, Ukraine Sales to Climb
  • Oenophile Chinese Purchase Bordeaux for $470 Mainland Bottles
  • Copper Heads for First Weekly Gain in Three Before U.S. Data
  • Rubber Caps Best Gain in Five Weeks as Oil Rally Boosts Appeal
  • Statoil $1.2 Billion Tanzania Find May Hold Oil in New Play
  • Billionaires Vie for Railway to $40 Billion Coal Region: Energy
  • Glencore Will Notify EU of Xstrata Bid for Merger Review
  • Baosteel Spurs Dim Sum Revival on Cost Advantage: China Credit
  • Mentor of Central Bankers Fischer Rues Complacency in New Growth
  • Billionaires Vie for Australian Coal Rail
  • Gold’s Bull Run May Drive Price to $5,000, Wyke Forecasts
  • Cotton Exports From India Slows as Crisis Cools Apparel Demand
  • U.S. Corn Crop May Reach Record 14.27 Billion Bushels, USDA Says 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


RUSSIA – which is obviously a PetroDollar Equity market continues to rage higher as inflation expectations do. The RTSI is up another +2.4% this morning and +22% for the YTD as President Obama blames oil rising on “Wall Street Speculators” (dollar down be damned).


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


YEN – How one of the world’s top 3 currencies can collapse like this and it not be called out by consensus is far beyond my reach. The Yen is down -6% for the month-to-date! It’s not a straight line down, but its close – reminds me of the Euro falling off its highs in April of 2011 and consensus saying “hey, buy European exporters!” – we continue to see this sovereign debt maturity spike (March) in Japan as the why on Yen…

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Realist Risk Managers

This note was originally published at 8am on February 10, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“You have to be realistic even if you’re an idealist.”

-Izzeldin Abuelaish

 

Ideally, the US stock market would never go down (its biggest down day of 2012 = -0.57%). Realistically, that’s not going to happen.

 

Ideally, you can wrap a Global Macro Risk Management Process up in a baby blue Tiffany box and slap a white ‘here’s what will happen in 2012’ bow on it for your clients. Realistically, you need to do the opposite of that and Embrace Uncertainty, every day.

 

The aforementioned quote comes from a book I am in the middle of reading right now called “I Shall Not Hate” – a Gaza Doctor’s story about managing life’s risks – those that are far greater than that of a Greek politician’s career this morning.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

After spending the last few days risk managing with some of our most thoughtful clients in Boston, I came to the simple conclusion that Greece has become a tree within a forest of globally interconnected risks.

 

The deep simplicity of that conclusion shouldn’t be a surprise. What’s happening to the rest of the world’s Growth and Inflation Expectations certainly didn’t cease to exist because the manic media doesn’t have an analytical process to absorb it.

 

The Top 3 Risk Management Topics our clients wanted to focus on in the last few days had nothing to do with Greece:

  1. Japan’s Sovereign Debt Maturity spike in March
  2. China’s Inflation Rising Post #BernankTax
  3. Down Dollar = Rising Inflation = Slowing Growth

Unlike some pundit spewing their qualitative views, a Realist Risk Manager (a Buy-Sider) is held accountable to real-time risk ticking on their screen every hour of every day. Being early in this business can also mean being wrong. Being late can also mean you blow up.

 

Maybe that’s why Japan was such a hot topic on the road. People are no longer allowed to blow up. Blowing up client moneys in 2008 was, allegedly, what “everyone” (other than those of us who didn’t) missed. Getting tagged for another -10-50% loss of capital in 2011, for some, made 2008 + 2011 a trend. And a 3rdtime probably means prepping your resume for an interview at Chipotle.

 

Why Japan? Why now?

 

We’ve been making this call since 2010, “The Sovereign Debt Dichotomy”, which attempts to simplify trading the short side of stock markets (long CDS) by waiting and watching for the Keynesian policy makers of that country to bump up against the biggest sovereign debt maturity within their economic region. Timing is critical.

 

That’s why we got bearish on Spain, then Italy, then France – in that order – in the order that their respective monthly sovereign debt maturities ballooned. After their stock markets imploded, we covered and got out of the way.

 

In today’s Chart of The Day, you’ll see that Japan’s March Debt Maturity Spike is:

  1. The largest, nominally, that Japan will ever have to bring to market
  2. Larger than any other European debt maturity by a considerable margin

Every client pushed our lynx-eyed Asia analyst, Darius Dale, and I on the next obvious question – why aren’t Japanese spreads and CDS blowing out yet?

 

A: throughout the entire European Sovereign Debt crisis, they didn’t either. They started to when it became clear to the market that their largest maturities couldn’t be absorbed at lower/stable yields.

 

Ideally, everyone would be able to price everything’s risk, efficiently, in real-time. Realistically, markets don’t trade that way. They trade on the expectations and emotions associated with last price.

 

Sometimes markets don’t go down, literally, until the day of the “new news”. Look at China in the last 48 hours:

  1. Inflation Rising = Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) up to 4.5% y/y (versus 4.1% last month)
  2. Growth Slowing = Chinese Exports down -0.5% y/y (down y/y for the first time in 2 years)

On that “news” this morning, US centric stock market investors who are still staring at the tree (Greece), now have to react to “China Slowing” as a Top 3 Most Read Bloomberg story. Unlike the US stock market, which has not yet had a -1% down day in 2012, Hong Kong was down -1.1% on that (Indonesia -1.7%, South Korea -1.3%, etc.).

 

Ideally, I’d like to sleep once in a while. Realistically, that’s not going to happen either. Global Macro market risk never sleeps.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), EUR/USD, Shanghai Composite, France CAC, and the SP500 are now $1717-1761, $114.12-119.02, $1.31-1.33, 2319-2357, 3391-3565, and 1334-1360, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Realist Risk Managers - Chart of the Day

 

Realist Risk Managers - Virtual Portfolio



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Phony Promises

"It's the easiest thing in the world to make phony election-year promises about lower gas prices."

-Barack Obama

 

Markets don’t lie; politicians do. With the US Dollar getting pulverized to fresh YTD lows yesterday ($78.82 US Dollar Index), the price of oil ripped to new YTD highs.

 

The President of the United States said nothing about gasoline’s immediate-term -0.8 correlation to the US Dollar – he blamed “the Middle East and Wall Street Speculators.”

 

Storytelling can be sad.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

This whole “clean energy” rant appeals to people. My office is on an Ivy League college campus – trust me, I get it. What I clearly don’t get is how both Bush and Obama’s economic “advisors” concluded that the best long-term path to economic prosperity is through currency devaluation. Both Carter and Nixon tried this. So did Charles de Gaulle. It doesn’t work.

 

You know, there are no quick fixes to this problem.” –Obama (in Miami yesterday)

 

Really? There actually is a quick fix. And since our central planners love those, you’d think they’d at least be forced to debate it. A Strong Dollar Policy – in both MONETARY and FISCAL action = down oil, hard.

 

I know the Energy “experts” disagree, and that’s fine – all the more reason to try the one policy idea neither Bush nor Obama tried. Give one of these “experts” some inside info that Ben Bernanke is going to come out with a “surprise rate hike” on Sunday night, and you’ll see more Oil men buy puts than a Congresswoman from the 112th.

 

I wrote about this yesterday and had a proactively predictable responses from partisan people. The minute you credit Reagan for anything, the Democrats cringe. The second you compliment Clinton on anything fiscally conservative, the Republicans whine.

 

Only inside the Bubble in American Politics could partisanship make us all feel so willfully blind…

 

Back to the data: look at the long-term chart of Oil vs the US Dollar. It doesn’t lie. 

  1. US Dollar Index > $90 = bearish for Oil
  2. US Dollar Index < $90 = bullish for Oil 

Again, during the 1980s and 1990s, not only did the price of oil routinely trade in the $18-22/barrel range (using long-term decade averages here folks, not Iraqi points on the cart), markets EXPECTED it to. 

  1. 1 = average price of oil (WTI) = $22.16/barrel
  2. 1 = average price of oil (WTI) = $18.63/barrel 

*note, I use 1983 and 1993 to take out the 1981-82 and 1991-92 US recessions, which, ostensibly, would be your “low demand” years - if you’re asking a run-of-the-mill supply/demand Keynesian, that is…

 

Expectations drive markets. Period. And the entire world expects Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner to debauch the US Dollar with the President of the United States having their backs.

 

How else can you explain Obama not mentioning the US Dollar once during the State of the Union address? Correlation isn’t causality. We get that. But correlations on a 30-day to 3-year basis are extremely high, and so is causality on a 40 year-basis. It was a Republican President (Nixon) who abandoned the Gold Standard in order to debauch the dollar in 1971 and proclaim “we are all Keynesians now.”

 

Reality 101: In an America where we try to make it ok for losers to win, I’m not going to convince someone that they are accountable for something that is very wrong in this country in 900 words or less. So now I’ll just get on with my day.

 

I couldn’t make this up if I tried, but Bloomberg’s #1 Economic Headline today is “STOCKS, OIL CLIMB ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY.”

 

Meanwhile, everything other than Gold, Energy, and Basic Materials stocks (inflation expectations rising), is signaling that Global Growth Slowing here sequentially in February is the case: 

  1. The SP500 is still down -13% from its 2007 peak (tell your broker you need to be up +15% from here to get back to breakeven)
  2. US Treasury Yields (10-year) have dropped back below my intermediate-term TREND line of 2.03%
  3. The Yield Spread (10s minus 2s) is down 3bps day-over-day
  4. Spain, France, and Italy are all making lower-highs in the face or Economic Stagflation
  5. CRB Commodities Index (18 commodities) = +2% for the week vs the SP500 +0.1%
  6. Oil prices are up +3.4-4.8% on the week with the US Dollar down almost 1% (and the Yen is collapsing)

Japanese Yen collapsing? Yes, it’s not headline news, yet – but it will be. The Yen is down, literally, in a straight line to the tune of -6% for the month of February to-date. I think this looks eerily similar to the initial cliff dive of the Euro in April of 2011. Japan, like Europe at this time last year, is about to enter a phase of massive sovereign debt monthly maturities (57.1 TRILLION Yen in March).

 

Is it going to be different this time? USA and Japan have to rollover $3.0 TRILLION and $3.2 TRILLION in debt (in debauched dollars) in 2012 and oil prices over $100/barrel have never not slowed Global Economic Growth. Or are we hearing Phony Promises about an economic recovery, again, during an election year?

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar Index, and the SP500 are now $1, $119.81-124.61, $78.70-79.07, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Phony Promises - Chart of the Day

 

Phony Promises - Virtual Portfolio


THE M3: OKADA OUSTED

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 24, 2012

 

 

WYNN MACAU REMOVES OKADA FROM BOARD; AQUINO ORDERS PROBE BusinessWeek

Wynn Macau has kicked off Kazuo Okada from its board.  Philippine President Benigno Aquino has ordered a probe into payments allegedly made to the nation’s top gaming regulator, Cristino Naguiat.  Wynn Macau cited “unacceptable conduct” by Okada for the board’s decision to remove him as a non-executive director.  Naguiat earlier this week said he had done “nothing inappropriate.”

 

Accepting free accommodations is “industry practice,” Edwin Lacierda, Aquino’s spokesman, said in a briefing on Feb. 21. “There is no conflict of interest in that sense.” Lacierda also said at the time that Aquino was satisfied with Naguiat’s explanation.


Triangulating Latin America

Topics/Questions Addressed:

  • Does the Rally in Brazilian Equities Have Legs?
  • Is It Time to Hedge Against a Pullback Across EM Asset Classes?
  • Mexico’s Stagflation Problem

Does the Rally in Brazilian Equities Have Legs?

After being down just over -18% in 2011, Brazil’s benchmark equity index, the Bovespa, is off to a +16% start in the YTD. The question now, however, is: can the rally sustain itself? That is, are Brazil’s intermediate-term macro fundamentals strong enough to convince investors who may have missed the rally to participate?

 

Looking at how we screen for country-level opportunities, the quick answer is yes – for now. Our proprietary GROWTH/INFLATION/POLICY modeling puts Brazil in the equity-supportive Quadrants #4 and #1, in 1Q12 and 2Q12, respectively.

 

Triangulating Latin America - BRAZIL

 

Using this standardized framework allows us to efficiently vet where we could be wrong, which is what we spend the majority of our time researching.

 

From a policy perspective, Brazil looks to continue employing growth-supportive monetary and fiscal policy. Last week, the Finance Ministry unveiled R$55 billion in cuts from the 2012 budget (R$35B from discretionary spending; R$20B from mandatory programs) to continue making room for the central bank to ease monetary policy. Per Finance Minister Guido Mantega:

 

“With lower rates, the country will grow more… When the state saves more and inflation is falling in the country, we’re able to open room to reduce interest rates.”

 

His commentary is generally in line with how we view fiscal policy’s effect on rates of inflation within an economy. Turning back to the budget specifically, we see that social expenditures such as anti-poverty programs and construction of low-income housing were spared from the cuts. Populist measures like this will continue to give President Rousseff clout with Brazilian voters and strengthen her combative stance against corruption and union demands.

 

The budget does, however, assume +4.5% GDP growth for the year, which is ~100bps higher than our current projection (subject to change w/ new data), imposing the risk that they come in light on the revenue front should growth come in below the official target.

 

Looking at monetary policy, both pressure from Rousseff/Mantega and the central bank’s latest commentary suggest that Brazilian interest rates are headed lower in 2012 – perhaps even below 10% (from 10.5% currently), according the central bank’s “high probability” scenario. Brazilian rate markets continue to take fiscal and monetary policymakers’ guidance on interest rates quite literally, pricing in roughly -120bps of cuts over the NTM.

 

Triangulating Latin America - 2

 

Inflation is where we think Brazil could “miss” relative to current expectations. According to the same “high probability” scenario, Brazilian CPI is projected to fall to the mid-point of the target range of +4.5% +/- 200bps (from +6.2% YoY in JAN) by year-end. To put it simply, there is a near-Bernank (“zero percent”) chance that this will happen if global energy prices continue to make higher intermediate-term highs and remain in Bullish Formations quantitatively.

 

As of now, the Bovespa remains a semi-defensive play in a rising inflation environment, with 42.3% of the index’s market cap weighted to energy and basic material companies. At a point, however, rising profits at companies like Vale and Petrobras will come at the expense of the Brazilian consumer, producer, and economy at large. Additionally, we’d be remiss to forget that the Bovespa failed to participate in the 1H11 Global Inflation Trade, peaking in early NOV ’10 – just shortly after Qe2 was officially announced.

 

Triangulating Latin America - 3

 

All told, we continue to like Brazil fundamentally, but certainly not at every price and level of inflation expectations. What would get us to buy Brazil is twofold: 1) stability in the U.S. dollar (i.e. a TRADE-duration breakout); and 2) a subsequent deflating of the inflation to create lower, more attractive prices (Bovespa’s trailing 30-day correlation to DXY = -0.84). Our quantitative risk management levels on the Bovespa are included in the chart below.

 

Triangulating Latin America - 4

 

Is It Time to Hedge Against a Pullback Across EM Asset Classes?

Investors in emerging market assets have seen a fair amount of green on their screens in the YTD; to generalize:

  • The MSCI EM Equity Index is up +16.2%;
  • The Morgan Stanley EM Local Currency Debt Fund is up +18.4%; and
  • The JPMorgan EM Currency Index is up +6.8%.

While the long-term growth fundamentals remain supportive of EM perma-bull storytelling, it’s fair to attribute a good deal of this performance to a relief rally of sorts stemming from the waning of systemic pressure within the Eurozone (as quantified by the Euribor-OIS spread), as well as a dramatic decline in global cross-asset volatility. To measure the latter point, we’ve created a proprietary index that uses an unequally-weighted average of the following volatility indices:

  • CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX);
  • Merrill Lynch Treasury Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE);
  • CBOE Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX);
  • JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index; and
  • JPMorgan EM FX Volatility Index. 

Triangulating Latin America - 5

 

On this metric, global cross-asset volatility is down -18.2% in the YTD, making it easier for global investors to extend the duration of their research (obvious L/T bullish theses across the EM universe) and for EM corporates and sovereigns to raise capital. This intuitive interpretation is supported by the math: the MSCI EM Equity Index (as a rough proxy for EM assets) has a -0.88 correlation to our proprietary Global Macro Volatility Index on a trailing 3-year basis.

 

Importantly, our index is at levels last seen since JUL ’11. As risk managers, we should be asking ourselves if this level of cross-asset volatility is sustainable over the intermediate-term. While only a crystal ball would give us the rightful answer to this question, we can make educated guesses based on handicapping what we see as meaningful catalysts coming down the pike.

 

On this basis, a potential sovereign debt scare in Japan (MAR), a likely downward revision to China’s growth target (early MAR), and accelerating global stagflation on a rolling basis due to the perpetuation of Weak Dollar Policy out of the U.S. all suggest that continued lower-highs in cross-asset volatility is increasingly less likely over the intermediate term. Given, we would support being appropriately hedged against a correction across EM asset classes, which have historically been highly correlated as highlighted in the table below.

 

Triangulating Latin America - 6

 

Key breakdown levels to watch across the EM debt space are included in the charts below. Gol’s (Brazil’s 2nd-largest airline by market value) recently-shelved $200M perpetual bond offer and Argentine corporates continuing to be shut out international capital markets (five consecutive months w/o a deal being priced) could be canaries in the coal mine for broader weakness over the intermediate term.

 

Triangulating Latin America - 7

 

Triangulating Latin America - 8

 

Mexico’s Stagflation Problem

Recently, Mexico reported that its Real GDP growth slowed to +3.7% YoY in 4Q11 vs. +4.5% in the prior quarter. Alongside a sequential acceleration in Headline YoY Inflation in the quarter, Mexico’s economy closed out 2011 in Quadrant #3 of our G.I.P. analysis. More importantly, adopting our model’s baseline estimates, the country looks to stay put throughout 1H12.

 

Triangulating Latin America - MEXICO

 

Flat-to-down JAN PMI data (Manufacturing flat and Services down -2.6 pts. MoM) and accelerating inflation (CPI +4.1% YoY vs. +3.8% prior) amid the worst drought on record (higher domestic food costs) suggests our baseline outlook is off to a fairly accurate start. Furthermore, from a modeling perspective, we risk not being aggressive enough to the downside and upside with our growth and inflation assumptions, respectively, in the face of what we’ve chosen to label as The Bernank Tax.

 

Mexican rate markets agree with our view that Mexico’s Indefinitely Dovish central bank (benchmark held at a record-low 4.5% since mid-’09) may have to, at a bare minimum, talk hawkishly in the face of CPI likely remaining above their upside target of +3-4% for the intermediate term. 1yr O/S interest rate swaps and 1yr L/C sovereign debt yields are pricing in +37bps and +1bps of tightening over the NTM and this spread has been making higher-lows since SEP – in the face of other Latin American economies’ spreads making lower-highs over the same duration.

 

Triangulating Latin America - 10

 

All told, Mexico is the Latin American economy we view most at risk of experiencing stagflation over the intermediate term; as such, we are unfavorably disposed to their equity market.

 

Fundamental Price Data

All % moves week-over-week unless otherwise specified.

  • EQUITIES:
    • Median: +0.8%
    • High: Colombia +2.6%
    • Low: Brazil, Mexico -0.5%
    • Callout: Mexico +2.6% YTD vs. a regional median of +16.3%
  • FX (vs. USD):
    • Median: +0.2%
    • High: Chilean peso +0.8%
    • Low: Argentine peso, Mexican peso -0.1%
    • Callout: Argentine peso -1.1% YTD vs. a regional median of +8.4%
  • S/T SOVEREIGN DEBT (2YR YIELD):
    • High: Colombia +22bps
    • Low: Mexico +1bps
    • Callout: Colombia up +32bps YTD vs. Brazil -69bps
  • L/T SOVEREIGN DEBT (10YR YIELD):
    • High: Mexico +4bps
    • Low: Brazil -2bps
    • Callout: Mexico +46bps over the last six months vs. Brazil -85bps
  • SOVEREIGN YIELD SPREADS (10s-2s):
    • High: Mexico +3bps
    • Low: Colombia -19bps
    • Callout: Mexico -7bps YTD vs. Brazil +43bps
  • 5YR CDS:
    • Median: -3.8%
    • High: Colombia -2.9%
    • Low: Chile -8.1%
    • Callout: Regional posting a YTD median decline of -16.9%
  • 1YR O/S INTEREST RATE SWAPS:
    • High: Chile +10bps
    • Low: Mexico -3bps
    • Callout: Colombia +70bps YTD vs. Brazil -78bps
  • O/N INTERBANK RATES:
    • High: Brazil +1bps
    • Low: Chile -9bps
    • Callout: Colombia +18bps YTD vs. Brazil -58bps
  • CORRELATION RISK: The MSCI Latin America Equity Index is trading with an inverse correlation to the U.S. Dollar Index of -0.87 on a trailing 30-day basis.

Darius Dale

Senior Analyst

 


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