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It's become clear that Singapore benefited from a significant honeymoon period.

It happened sooner than we thought.  The number of Singaporean visitors to the Integrated Resorts is falling.  Many markets/casinos experience a honeymoon period but this looks unprecedented.  Of course, we shouldn't forget that the Singapore market exploded out of the blocks.  We still expect 2012 growth but it certainly won't come from the local population.

Genting Singapore mentioned a couple of quarters ago that mass market growth has been limited by a stagnant local population and inability to promote gaming to locals.  According to numbers released by Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports, Chan Chun Sing, total Singaporean visitation for the two integrated resorts dropped 22% YoY.  At RWS, the number of local gamblers fell by 31.7% from 199,783 in 2010 to 136,434 in 2011.  For MBS, the number dropped by 8.9% from 150,691 in 2010 to 137,259 in 2011.

This data provides further confirmation of our view that Singapore growth will moderate significantly in 2012.  Without more rooms or junket approval, Singapore growth might slip into the single digits in 2012.  See our note GENTING BLOWS IT (2/23/11).