TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 23, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.34% downside to 1353 and 0.39% upside to 1363.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -652 (-660)
- VOLUME: NYSE 729.05 (-8.64%)
- VIX: 18.19 0.00% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.26%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.15 from 1.42 (51.41%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 41.03
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 2.02 from 2.00
- YIELD CURVE: 1.72 from 1.71
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Feb. 18, est. 355k (prior 348k)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, wk of Feb. 19 (prior -39.8)
- 10am: House Price Index (M/m), Dec., est. 0.1% (prior 1.0%)
- 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
- 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas storage
- 11am: DOE inventories
- 11am: Kansas City Fed Manu., Feb., est. 9 (prior 7)
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes
GOVERNMENT:
- Obama speaks on economy, rising oil prices at University of Miami, 2:30pm
- Quinnipiac Univ. releases poll of American voters on economy, women’s health and military service, healthcare reform, 6am
- National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling, FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz speak at White House event on privacy, noon
- House, Senate not in session
- EU Commissioner Michel Barnier speaks at U.S. Chamber of
- Commerce on financial services sector risks, 1pm
- U.S., North Korean officials meet in Beijing
WHAT TO WATCH:
- First USDA forecast of 2012-2013 crop season may predict largest corn crop since World War II
- German business confidence rose more than economists forecast to a seven-month high in Feb.
- New York Fed said to seek bids for more of the mortgage bonds assumed in rescue of AIG
- Silver Lake sees buyout firms focusing in on makers of telecommunications and mobile-phone gear this year
- Deutsche Telekom posts U.S. contract subscriber losses, forecasts lower 2012 profit
- FDA panels vote on Chelsea Therapeutics’ Northera in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, Forest Labs/Almirall’s aclidinium bromide in COPD
- Google said it would support industry agreement to introduce a “do-not-track” button that will be embedded in Web browsers
- Warner Music owner Len Blavatnik said to still pursue EMI recorded music unit
- Apple holds first annual meeting since death of Steve Jobs
EARNINGS:
- Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6 a.m., $0.78
- EchoStar (SATS) 6 a.m., $(0.19)
- MetroPCS Communications (PCS) 6 a.m., $0.16
- Iron Mountain (IRM) 6 a.m., $0.29
- DISH Network (DISH) 6 a.m., $0.61
- Trina Solar (TSL) 6:15 a.m., $(0.43)
- Hormel Foods (HRL) 6:30 a.m., $0.48
- Loblaw (L CN) 7 a.m., C$0.66
- Patterson Cos (PDCO) 7 a.m., $0.50
- Kohl’s (KSS) 7 a.m., $1.80
- American Tower (AMT) 7 a.m., $0.29
- Plains Exploration & Production Co (PXP) 7:25 a.m., $0.36
- Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) 7:25 a.m., $0.48
- Tim Hortons (THI CN) 7:30 a.m., C$0.62
- Target (TGT) 7:30 a.m., $1.39
- Omnicare (OCR) 7:30 a.m., $0.56
- CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30 a.m., $0.15
- Ameren (AEE) 7:42 a.m., $0.15
- Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
- Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30 a.m., $0.38
- Denbury Resources (DNR) 8:30 a.m., $0.34
- Safeway (SWY) 9 a.m., $0.64
- WPX Energy (WPX) Pre-mkt
- WebMD Health (WBMD) 4 p.m., $0.29
- TiVo (TIVO) 4 p.m., $(0.19)
- SBA Communications (SBAC) 4 p.m., $(0.23)
- Gap (GPS) 4 p.m., $0.42
- American International Group (AIG) 4 p.m., $0.56
- Crocs (CROX) 4 p.m., $0.04
- Molycorp (MCP) 4:01 p.m., $0.40
- Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) 4:02 p.m., $0.17
- Autodesk (ADSK) 4:02 p.m., $0.45
- Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:05 p.m., $(0.31)
- Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05 p.m., $0.40
- SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05 p.m., $(0.02)
- Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10 p.m., $0.37
- KBR (KBR) 4:14 p.m., $0.64
- Northeast Utilities (NU) 4:26 p.m., $0.69
- HealthSouth (HLS) 4:30 p.m., $0.31
- Westar Energy (WR) 5 p.m., $0.15
- Public Storage (PSA) 5 p.m., $1.58
- Magna International (MG CN) 5 p.m., $1.02
- Ansys (ANSS) 5:03 p.m., $0.70
- Iamgold (IMG CN) 5:15 p.m., $0.34
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
We were looking for a way to bridge the gap between what Inflation Expectations are doing (last price) and what partisan politicians are saying about oil prices this morning. In a globally interconnected marketplace of colliding factors, to call this rip to $124/barrel in oil prices simply a function of “Iran” is as simple does – un-American and uninspiring.
Multi-factor, Multi-Duration.
- Oil is up +13.3% in the last month
- Oil is up +160% in the last 3 years
- Oil is up +480% in the last 10 years
- Barrick’s Regent Sees Gold-Stock ‘Inflection Point’: Commodities
- Gas Swings at 2-Year High as U.K. Flaws Exposed: Energy Markets
- Brent Oil Rises to Nine-Month High on German Business Confidence
- Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Oil Prices, Confidence
- Wheat Declines as Global Stockpiles May Increase to a Record
- Robusta Coffee Rises as Bets on Higher Prices Surge; Sugar Gains
- Gold May Gain in London as Dollar’s Drop, Low Rates Spur Demand
- Armajaro Cuts Cocoa Shortage Forecast by 50% on Port Deliveries
- U.S. Eyes Record Corn Crop as Farmers Boost Acreage to 1944 High
- Transocean Bonds Gain on Move to Avoid Junk: Corporate Finance
- Aluminum Premiums Poised to Climb on Supply Outlook, CRU Says
- Corn Imports by China Seen Increasing Sevenfold on Demand
- Palm Oil Set to Rally Above $1,300 by Midyear, Coleman Says
- Shell’s Cove Bid Starts Race for East African Gas Fields: Energy
- BHP Record Bond Offering Taps Commodity Hunger: Australia Credit
- Tin Exports From Indonesia in Quarter Seen Lowest Since 2010
- Corn Futures in Dalian to Extend Decline: Technical Analysis
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team