THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 23, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.34% downside to 1353 and 0.39% upside to 1363. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -652 (-660) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 729.05 (-8.64%)
  • VIX:  18.19 0.00% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.26%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.15 from 1.42 (51.41%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 41.03
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.02 from 2.00
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.72 from 1.71

 MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Feb. 18, est. 355k (prior 348k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, wk of Feb. 19 (prior -39.8)
  • 10am: House Price Index (M/m), Dec., est. 0.1% (prior 1.0%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas storage
  • 11am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manu., Feb., est. 9 (prior 7)
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes

  GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama speaks on economy, rising oil prices at University of Miami, 2:30pm
    • Quinnipiac Univ. releases poll of American voters on economy, women’s health and military service, healthcare reform, 6am
    • National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling, FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz speak at White House event on privacy, noon
    • House, Senate not in session
    • EU Commissioner Michel Barnier speaks at U.S. Chamber of
    • Commerce on financial services sector risks, 1pm
    • U.S., North Korean officials meet in Beijing

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • First USDA forecast of 2012-2013 crop season may predict largest corn crop since World War II
  • German business confidence rose more than economists forecast to a seven-month high in Feb.
  • New York Fed said to seek bids for more of the mortgage bonds assumed in rescue of AIG
  • Silver Lake sees buyout firms focusing in on makers of telecommunications and mobile-phone gear this year
  • Deutsche Telekom posts U.S. contract subscriber losses, forecasts lower 2012 profit
  • FDA panels vote on Chelsea Therapeutics’ Northera in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, Forest Labs/Almirall’s aclidinium bromide in COPD
  • Google said it would support industry agreement to introduce a “do-not-track” button that will be embedded in Web browsers
  • Warner Music owner Len Blavatnik said to still pursue EMI recorded music unit
  • Apple holds first annual meeting since death of Steve Jobs

EARNINGS:

    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6 a.m., $0.78
    • EchoStar (SATS) 6 a.m., $(0.19)
    • MetroPCS Communications (PCS) 6 a.m., $0.16
    • Iron Mountain (IRM) 6 a.m., $0.29
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6 a.m., $0.61
    • Trina Solar (TSL) 6:15 a.m., $(0.43)
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) 6:30 a.m., $0.48
    • Loblaw (L CN) 7 a.m., C$0.66
    • Patterson Cos (PDCO) 7 a.m., $0.50
    • Kohl’s (KSS) 7 a.m., $1.80
    • American Tower (AMT) 7 a.m., $0.29
    • Plains Exploration & Production Co (PXP) 7:25 a.m., $0.36
    • Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) 7:25 a.m., $0.48
    • Tim Hortons (THI CN) 7:30 a.m., C$0.62
    • Target (TGT) 7:30 a.m., $1.39
    • Omnicare (OCR) 7:30 a.m., $0.56
    • CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30 a.m., $0.15
    • Ameren (AEE) 7:42 a.m., $0.15
    • Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30 a.m., $0.38
    • Denbury Resources (DNR) 8:30 a.m., $0.34
    • Safeway (SWY) 9 a.m., $0.64
    • WPX Energy (WPX) Pre-mkt
    • WebMD Health (WBMD) 4 p.m., $0.29
    • TiVo (TIVO) 4 p.m., $(0.19)
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4 p.m., $(0.23)
    • Gap (GPS) 4 p.m., $0.42
    • American International Group (AIG) 4 p.m., $0.56
    • Crocs (CROX) 4 p.m., $0.04
    • Molycorp (MCP) 4:01 p.m., $0.40
    • Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) 4:02 p.m., $0.17
    • Autodesk (ADSK) 4:02 p.m., $0.45
    • Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:05 p.m., $(0.31)
    • Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05 p.m., $0.40
    • SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05 p.m., $(0.02)
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10 p.m., $0.37
    • KBR (KBR) 4:14 p.m., $0.64
    • Northeast Utilities (NU) 4:26 p.m., $0.69
    • HealthSouth (HLS) 4:30 p.m., $0.31
    • Westar Energy (WR) 5 p.m., $0.15
    • Public Storage (PSA) 5 p.m., $1.58
    • Magna International (MG CN) 5 p.m., $1.02
    • Ansys (ANSS) 5:03 p.m., $0.70
    • Iamgold (IMG CN) 5:15 p.m., $0.34

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

We were looking for a way to bridge the gap between what Inflation Expectations are doing (last price) and what partisan politicians are saying about oil prices this morning. In a globally interconnected marketplace of colliding factors, to call this rip to $124/barrel in oil prices simply a function of “Iran” is as simple does – un-American and uninspiring.

Multi-factor, Multi-Duration.

    1. Oil is up +13.3% in the last month
    2. Oil is up +160% in the last 3 years
    3. Oil is up +480% in the last 10 years 
  • Barrick’s Regent Sees Gold-Stock ‘Inflection Point’: Commodities
  • Gas Swings at 2-Year High as U.K. Flaws Exposed: Energy Markets
  • Brent Oil Rises to Nine-Month High on German Business Confidence
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Oil Prices, Confidence
  • Wheat Declines as Global Stockpiles May Increase to a Record
  • Robusta Coffee Rises as Bets on Higher Prices Surge; Sugar Gains
  • Gold May Gain in London as Dollar’s Drop, Low Rates Spur Demand
  • Armajaro Cuts Cocoa Shortage Forecast by 50% on Port Deliveries
  • U.S. Eyes Record Corn Crop as Farmers Boost Acreage to 1944 High
  • Transocean Bonds Gain on Move to Avoid Junk: Corporate Finance
  • Aluminum Premiums Poised to Climb on Supply Outlook, CRU Says
  • Corn Imports by China Seen Increasing Sevenfold on Demand
  • Palm Oil Set to Rally Above $1,300 by Midyear, Coleman Says
  • Shell’s Cove Bid Starts Race for East African Gas Fields: Energy
  • BHP Record Bond Offering Taps Commodity Hunger: Australia Credit
  • Tin Exports From Indonesia in Quarter Seen Lowest Since 2010
  • Corn Futures in Dalian to Extend Decline: Technical Analysis 

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team