THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 23, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.34% downside to 1353 and 0.39% upside to 1363. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -652 (-660) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 729.05 (-8.64%)
  • VIX:  18.19 0.00% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.26%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.15 from 1.42 (51.41%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 41.03
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.02 from 2.00
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.72 from 1.71

 MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, week of Feb. 18, est. 355k (prior 348k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, wk of Feb. 19 (prior -39.8)
  • 10am: House Price Index (M/m), Dec., est. 0.1% (prior 1.0%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 10:30am: EIA Natural Gas storage
  • 11am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manu., Feb., est. 9 (prior 7)
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes

  GOVERNMENT:

    • Obama speaks on economy, rising oil prices at University of Miami, 2:30pm
    • Quinnipiac Univ. releases poll of American voters on economy, women’s health and military service, healthcare reform, 6am
    • National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling, FTC Chairman Jon Leibowitz speak at White House event on privacy, noon
    • House, Senate not in session
    • EU Commissioner Michel Barnier speaks at U.S. Chamber of
    • Commerce on financial services sector risks, 1pm
    • U.S., North Korean officials meet in Beijing

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • First USDA forecast of 2012-2013 crop season may predict largest corn crop since World War II
  • German business confidence rose more than economists forecast to a seven-month high in Feb.
  • New York Fed said to seek bids for more of the mortgage bonds assumed in rescue of AIG
  • Silver Lake sees buyout firms focusing in on makers of telecommunications and mobile-phone gear this year
  • Deutsche Telekom posts U.S. contract subscriber losses, forecasts lower 2012 profit
  • FDA panels vote on Chelsea Therapeutics’ Northera in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, Forest Labs/Almirall’s aclidinium bromide in COPD
  • Google said it would support industry agreement to introduce a “do-not-track” button that will be embedded in Web browsers
  • Warner Music owner Len Blavatnik said to still pursue EMI recorded music unit
  • Apple holds first annual meeting since death of Steve Jobs

EARNINGS:

    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) 6 a.m., $0.78
    • EchoStar (SATS) 6 a.m., $(0.19)
    • MetroPCS Communications (PCS) 6 a.m., $0.16
    • Iron Mountain (IRM) 6 a.m., $0.29
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6 a.m., $0.61
    • Trina Solar (TSL) 6:15 a.m., $(0.43)
    • Hormel Foods (HRL) 6:30 a.m., $0.48
    • Loblaw (L CN) 7 a.m., C$0.66
    • Patterson Cos (PDCO) 7 a.m., $0.50
    • Kohl’s (KSS) 7 a.m., $1.80
    • American Tower (AMT) 7 a.m., $0.29
    • Plains Exploration & Production Co (PXP) 7:25 a.m., $0.36
    • Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) 7:25 a.m., $0.48
    • Tim Hortons (THI CN) 7:30 a.m., C$0.62
    • Target (TGT) 7:30 a.m., $1.39
    • Omnicare (OCR) 7:30 a.m., $0.56
    • CMS Energy (CMS) 7:30 a.m., $0.15
    • Ameren (AEE) 7:42 a.m., $0.15
    • Liberty Media - Liberty Capital (LMCA) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
    • Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 8:30 a.m., $0.38
    • Denbury Resources (DNR) 8:30 a.m., $0.34
    • Safeway (SWY) 9 a.m., $0.64
    • WPX Energy (WPX) Pre-mkt
    • WebMD Health (WBMD) 4 p.m., $0.29
    • TiVo (TIVO) 4 p.m., $(0.19)
    • SBA Communications (SBAC) 4 p.m., $(0.23)
    • Gap (GPS) 4 p.m., $0.42
    • American International Group (AIG) 4 p.m., $0.56
    • Crocs (CROX) 4 p.m., $0.04
    • Molycorp (MCP) 4:01 p.m., $0.40
    • Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) 4:02 p.m., $0.17
    • Autodesk (ADSK) 4:02 p.m., $0.45
    • Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) 4:05 p.m., $(0.31)
    • Salesforce.com (CRM) 4:05 p.m., $0.40
    • SandRidge Energy (SD) 4:05 p.m., $(0.02)
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) 4:10 p.m., $0.37
    • KBR (KBR) 4:14 p.m., $0.64
    • Northeast Utilities (NU) 4:26 p.m., $0.69
    • HealthSouth (HLS) 4:30 p.m., $0.31
    • Westar Energy (WR) 5 p.m., $0.15
    • Public Storage (PSA) 5 p.m., $1.58
    • Magna International (MG CN) 5 p.m., $1.02
    • Ansys (ANSS) 5:03 p.m., $0.70
    • Iamgold (IMG CN) 5:15 p.m., $0.34

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

We were looking for a way to bridge the gap between what Inflation Expectations are doing (last price) and what partisan politicians are saying about oil prices this morning. In a globally interconnected marketplace of colliding factors, to call this rip to $124/barrel in oil prices simply a function of “Iran” is as simple does – un-American and uninspiring.

Multi-factor, Multi-Duration.

    1. Oil is up +13.3% in the last month
    2. Oil is up +160% in the last 3 years
    3. Oil is up +480% in the last 10 years 
  • Barrick’s Regent Sees Gold-Stock ‘Inflection Point’: Commodities
  • Gas Swings at 2-Year High as U.K. Flaws Exposed: Energy Markets
  • Brent Oil Rises to Nine-Month High on German Business Confidence
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Oil Prices, Confidence
  • Wheat Declines as Global Stockpiles May Increase to a Record
  • Robusta Coffee Rises as Bets on Higher Prices Surge; Sugar Gains
  • Gold May Gain in London as Dollar’s Drop, Low Rates Spur Demand
  • Armajaro Cuts Cocoa Shortage Forecast by 50% on Port Deliveries
  • U.S. Eyes Record Corn Crop as Farmers Boost Acreage to 1944 High
  • Transocean Bonds Gain on Move to Avoid Junk: Corporate Finance
  • Aluminum Premiums Poised to Climb on Supply Outlook, CRU Says
  • Corn Imports by China Seen Increasing Sevenfold on Demand
  • Palm Oil Set to Rally Above $1,300 by Midyear, Coleman Says
  • Shell’s Cove Bid Starts Race for East African Gas Fields: Energy
  • BHP Record Bond Offering Taps Commodity Hunger: Australia Credit
  • Tin Exports From Indonesia in Quarter Seen Lowest Since 2010
  • Corn Futures in Dalian to Extend Decline: Technical Analysis 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more