TJX Q4 Callouts

TJX reported Q4 results in-line with its recent preannouncement of $0.62 vs. $0.62E this morning. While there isn’t a whole lot in terms of surprises to report re the P&L, TJX’s SIGMA move is the clear highlight ahead of the call at 11am with sales outpacing inventories and margins expanding – a shift worth noting and bullish relative to the rest of the companies that have reported over the last two days (see our note "Retail:Tuesday's Foursome").   

Here are some callouts from the release regarding Q1-to-date trends and F13 expectations:

1)     Inventories:

  • Sales growth +11% outpaced inventory growth up +7% (down -5pts seq) for the first time in 5qtrs
  • On a per store basis inventories were up +3%, less than expected
  • The company’s purchase commitments are down yy putting TJX in the driver seat as it relates to excess inventory that will be coming into the discount channel from the mid-tier providing a tailwind to the discounters (e.g. TJX and ROST).
  • “Inventoriesare lean as we begin the year, which positions us very well to flow fresh spring merchandise to our stores.”

2)     Outlook:

  • Outlook in-line with expectations with upside likely in Q1 based on Feb-to-date trends.
  • “We enter a new fiscal year with considerable momentum in our business and are off to a very strong start in 2012. With favorable weather patterns in February, comp store sales are trending toward a 7% increase for the month.”
  • Q1 Outlook $0.45-$0.47 (vs $0.46E) predicated on comps +2%-4%. (up +7% so far in Feb.)
  • F13 Outlook $2.21-$2.31 (vs $2.27E) predicated on comps +1%-2%; including $0.07 from 53rd week

3)     Repo:

  • Company spent $400mm to repurchase shares in Q4;  expects to spend $1.2-$1.3mm in repo’s in F13 accounting for 5% of outstanding shares. New SRA up to $2Bn

4)     Home Category:

  • TJX’s HomeGoods posted a +10% comp matching TJX Europe as the strongest performers this quarter consistent with yesterday’s commentary re strong performance out of the Home category from WMT, M, and HD.

TJX Q4 Callouts - TJX


Casey Flavin




Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more