THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 22, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.75% downside to 1352 and 0.20% upside to 1365. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 8 (-424) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 797.99 (-11.07%)
  • VIX:  18.19 2.31% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.26%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.42 from 2.31 (-38.53%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


GROWTH – pick your overnight economic data point, from German PMI slowing sequentially in FEB to 50.1 vs 51 JAN to Taiwan Exports dropping -8.6% y/y in JAN, we think we’re just getting started here. What happens on the margin m/m matters most. Inflation, from these levels, slows growth.

 

INFLATION – Italian CPI +3.2% y/y JAN (stagflation), India CPI pops to +7.7% JAN vs 6.6% DEC, and Hong Kong CPI up to 6.1% JAN vs 5.7% DEC –these are all JAN numbers that don’t include this rip in the CRB Index, Oil, etc in FEB.

  • TED SPREAD: 42.65
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.05 from 2.06
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.76

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage, week of Feb. 17, (prior -1.0%)
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 10am: Revisions: Existing Home Sales
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Jan., est. 4.66m (prior 4.61m)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $40b 4-week bills
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5-yr notes
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • Quinnipiac University holds news conference on national poll on 2012 GOP contenders, presidential matchups, 10am
    • Republican presidential candidates face off in Mesa, Ariz. in debate sponsored by CNN, 8pm
    • House, Senate not in session

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Obama administration said to propose today to cut U.S. corporate tax rate to 28% from 35%
  • Sales of previously owned U.S. houses may have climbed 1.1% in Jan. to highest level since May 2010, economists est.
  • J&J picked Alex Gorsky to be new CEO
  • SAP said to partner with Samsung to push corporate use of Google’s Android
  • U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau starting inquiry into bank checking account overdraft policies
  • Peugeot says in alliance talks after report of GM discussions
  • European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February
  • France Telecom cut its dividend forecast
  • Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month forecast for commodity returns to 12% from 15%
  • Shell bids $1.6b for African oil explorer Cove Energy
  • Pimco said to be quitting American Securitization Forum over silence on foreclosure settlement
  • Solyndra begins piecemeal auction after failing to attract bids for whole company

 EARNINGS:

    • Donaldson (DCI) 6am, $0.71
    • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) 6am, $0.00
    • Quanta Services (PWR) 6am, $0.36
    • RR Donnelley (RRD) 6:30am, $0.43
    • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 6:45am, C$0.65
    • Chico’s FAS (CHS) 6:55am, $0.11
    • El Paso Electric (EE) 7am, $0.19
    • AGL Resources (GAS) 7am, $0.93
    • Windstream (WIN) 7am, $0.20
    • Dollar Tree (DLTR) 7:31am, $1.58
    • Canadian Utilities (CU CN) 8:07am, C$0.95
    • TJX Cos (TJX) 8:22am, $0.63
    • MGM Resorts International (MGM) 8:30am, $(0.20)
    • Washington Post (WPO) 8:30am, N/A
    • Eaton Vance (EV) 9am, $0.43
    • Analog Devices (ADI) 4pm, $0.48
    • Equity One (EQY) 4pm, $0.28
    • Whiting Petroleum (WLL) 4:00pm, $0.97
    • Express Scripts (ESRX) 4:01pm, $0.85
    • Jack in the Box (JACK) 4:01pm, $0.25
    • Williams Cos (WMB) 4:01pm, $0.41
    • Williams Partners LP (WPZ) 4:01pm, $0.98
    • Fluor (FLR) 4:05pm, $0.82
    • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) 4:05pm, $0.87
    • QEP Resources (QEP) 4:05pm, $0.45
    • Flowserve (FLS) 4:09pm, $2.29
    • Boston Beer (SAM) 4:15pm, $1.10
    • Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) 4:18pm, $0.20
    • Yamana Gold (YRI CN) 4:28pm, $0.24
    • Concho Resources (CXO) 4:30pm, $1.18
    • Ltd Brands (LTD) 4:30pm, $1.46
    • Continental Resources (CLR) 4:34pm, $0.78
    • Liberty Global (LBTYA) 5:00pm, $0.16

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Record Nickel Supply Expanding Glut Thwarts Rally: Commodities
  • Goldman Lowers Commodity Return Forecast, Stays Overweight
  • Copper Falls as Chinese, European Manufacturing Keeps Shrinking
  • Crude Oil Falls From Nine-Month High on Signs of Europe Slowdown
  • Russia Seeks ‘Foothold’ in Asian Wheat Market to Rival U.S.
  • Cocoa Climbs in London After Gains in New York; Sugar Advances
  • Soybeans Decline as Rainfall in Argentina May Improve Crops
  • Gold May Decline as Rally to Two-Week High Spurs Investor Sales
  • BHP Billiton’s $5.25 Billion Bond Offer Leads New-Issue Revival
  • Rubber Climbs to 5-Month High on Declining Supply, Greek Bailout
  • Investor Rogers Compares Myanmar Reforms to China’s Opening
  • Seaway Seen Sending Oil Supply to 5-Month High: Energy Markets
  • Obama, Bush and Reagan Show Threat to Gold Run: Chart of the Day
  • Spring Lambing in U.K. Turns Deadly as Schmallenberg Kills Young
  • Russia to Keep Exporting Grain to Iran Unless UN Imposes Ban
  • Shell Bids $1.6 Billion for African Oil Explorer Cove Energy
  • Risk of Oil-Price Surge Rising on Supply, Goldman Sachs Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


YEN – complete meltdown on our immediate-term TRADE duration with the Japanese Yen in free-fall, accelerating to the downside this morning to 80.16 vs USD. At the same time, short-term UST’s are spiking above our TREND line of 0.26% and 10s are above the critical 2.03% line this morning. Big sovereign debt maturity spike in Japan in March.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

  


Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more