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THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

MACRO NOTES

Consumer

For the week ended 2/11, initial jobless claims came in at 348k versus expectations of 365k and 361k the week prior (revised from 358k).

THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT - initial claims

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

Consensus still focused on Greece and Rating Agency noise as Global Growth Slows – amazing:

  1. CHINA – after seeing its 1st y/y decline in Export growth in 2yrs (JAN -0.5%), this morning the Chinese reported a y/y decline in Foreign Direct Investment of -0.3% y/y. Chinese govt guys called it “grim” (see Bloomberg article) – volumes on the NYSE aren’t the only thing in the world that have slowed to a halt
  2. SPAIN – the Spaniards are selling as much pig paper as they can (34% of their YTD needs) before someone figures out that Growth Slowing is what is going to crush their citizenry next. This morning’s debt auction finally came in at a higher yield (2015 bonds at 3.33% vs 2.86% last) and the IBEX is the 1st major European mkt to snap my immediate-term TRADE line of 8653 (down -2.1% leading decliners in Europe).
  3. COPPER – breaking my mo mo line of 3.88/lb support was one of the many Growth Slowing signals that had me short SPY at 1355 yesterday. This morning, copper = down -1.1% and 10yr UST yields are straight down to 1.91% as well.

Japanese Yen down hard too. We’ll likely buy/cover on red today, but not because Global Growth isn’t slowing as inflation expectations accelerate.

KM

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT - subsector

 

QUICK SERVICE

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

PEET: Peet’s Coffee traded down on accelerating volume on disappointing earnings yesterday. 

 

CASUAL DINING

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s 4Q11 earnings hit the tape this morning. EPS came in at $0.30 ex-items versus $0.45 consensus. Comps at the Bistro came in at -2.4% versus -2.8% consensus.  Pei Wei comps came in at -1.9% versus -2.7% consensus.  The stock traded down on the print but is now up 4% in premarket trading.  On the call, management is providing some positive commentary on the company’s outlook.  We will have a more detailed post up later today.

THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT - bistro pod1

 

THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT - peiwei pod1

 

THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT - pfcb pod2

BOBE: Bob Evans reported strong EPS of $0.69 versus $0.60 expectations on Tuesday and followed it up with a positive conference call yesterday, sending the stock higher.  The company improved food and labor costs at both Bob Evans and Mimi’s Café. 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

BOBE: Bob Evans Farms’ stock increased by 6.2% on accelerating volume.

EAT: Brinker management was in NYC yesterday and must have had some positive things to say.

PFCB: P.F. Chang’s eked out a small gain yesterday ahead of the print this morning.  As we wrote above, initial reaction to the print was negative but the bid is above $36 as we approach the opening bell.

THE HBM: PEET, PFCB, BOBE, EAT - stocks

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst