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Feeling Certain

This note was originally published at 8am on February 02, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“You know far less about yourself than you feel you do.”

-Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow)

 

Since last Thursday, when I made the call to go to 91% Cash (selling my US Dollar and US Equity positions down to 0%), I’ve re-invested 12% of that Cash (on red) in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model, dropping my Cash position back down to 79%.

 

After I write something like that, you should feel something. ‘Who is this guy? That’s not what I do? I love this guy. He can’t do that. I think he played hockey, etc.’

 

I don’t know what you are feeling right now. All I know is that the more I think I know about risk management, the less I know. As a result, the best path forward is to Embrace Uncertainty, keep moving, and banging out the early morning reps.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

People on Old Wall Street are funny. Yesterday, at Bloomberg’s China Conference, our rising star Asia analyst, Darius Dale, commented “this is really weird – I just spent the whole day listening to American investors tell me everything that they know about China.”

 

Where were the people from China?

 

I don’t know. What I do know is that there are highly intelligent people in this business that tend to think they know a lot more about what they don’t know than they actually do.

 

This, of course, isn’t new. In Chapter 4 of “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, The Associative Machine, Kahneman takes a step back to remind us that David Hume boiled this down to 3 principles of associative thinking in 1748: “resemblance, contiguity in time and place, and causality.” (page 52)

 

In other words, since most Perma-Bulls have been blown up by bubbles in the last 4 years, China must be a bubble. It resembles a bubble, right? We’re all here at the China Conference telling one another it’s a bubble, right? And notwithstanding any correlation math, we can all agree that credit bubbles cause bubbles, right?

 

Right, right.

 

So, after Gary Shilling’s consensus headline coming out of the Bloomberg Conference was “China Headed for Hard Landing”, Chinese stocks closed up another +2% last night (we’re up +16% on our CAF position since buying it on December 29th, 2011) and the Hang Seng moved to +12.5% YTD!

 

I’m Feeling Certain now that something hard landed somewhere last night, on a Chinese short sellers head.

 

Does that mean we run out and buy more China this morning? Of course not. It’s just a simple reminder that if some US centric investors don’t know what they don’t know about their own Macro market moves, how on God’s good earth do investors trust that they can pin the tail on the donkey on a 12 hour plane ride from Newark?

 

Back to our positioning in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model – here it is as of last night’s US market close:

  1. Cash = 79%
  2. International Equities = 9% (China – CAF)
  3. Fixed Income = 6% (Long-term Treasuries – TLT)
  4. US Equities = 6% (Energy – XLE)
  5. Commodities = 0%
  6. International FX = 0%

Feeling Certain about any of these asset allocations or Hedgeye Porfolio  LONG/SHORT positions we take is very hard to do. Feeling Certain that you can flip a switch from expecting Global Growth Acceleration to Deceleration in February is even harder to do.

 

With hindsight being crystal clear, the only thing I am certain about is how my model has worked over the last 4 years:

  1. When Inflation Expectations start to rise, people confuse commodity and stock market inflations with real-growth
  2. As real Growth Expectations start to fall, Gold, Treasuries, and Volatility start to rise
  3. As inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall, confusion in markets starts to breed contempt

Confusion is as confusion does. The US stock market went down for 4 straight days after we made the move to 91% Cash last Thursday. After 1 up day in the last 5, the Perma-Bulls are back. But are they? How can you be perma bullish or bearish about anything after the last decade of getting paid to feel certain about everything?

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), Copper, EUR/USD, Shanghai Composite, and the SP500 are now $1709-1771, $110.68-111.89, $3.75-3.83, $1.30-1.32, 2278-2334, and 1317-1326, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Feeling Certain - Chart of the Day

 

Feeling Certain - Virtual Portfolio


MAR: DELIVERS A SOLID Q AND GUIDANCE

This quarter wasn’t expected to be a huge catalyst but after the HST disappointment, MAR looks relatively good.

 

 

As many of you know, MAR has been our favorite stock for the last few months and we see nothing in last night’s release to change our positive view.  The quarter was messy and confusing – as we expected – and not necessarily comparable to estimates.  However, guidance was solid which may move the stock in a positive direction today.  Following the HST disappointment, expectations were ratcheted down.  Going forward, we expect solid RevPAR growth for the industry and MAR.  While we are not totally sold on this recovery from a Macro perspective, MAR’s almost pure fee business provides a level of protection from economic volatility.  While the valuation has improved, we don’t believe the multiple yet reflects the strength of MAR’s cash rich, fee-based business model.

 

The conference call starts at 10am EST but here are some takeaways in the meantime:

  • Managed and franchised room growth was a little better than we expected
    • Managed rooms were 1,185 higher than we estimated (0.4%)
    • Franchised rooms were 839 (0.3%) higher than we estimated
  • Absolute RevPAR was about 1% higher than we estimated but the numbers aren’t exactly comparable
  • Reported WW System wide RevPAR was at the midpoint of company guidance (5-7%)
  • Fee revenue of $416MM missed – mostly on the incentive fee line
    • Guidance: $420-$430MM
    • Consensus: $426MM
    • HE estimate: $429MM
    • $9MM of the shortfall in fee revenue (vs. HE & Street) was from incentive fees
    • The street wasn’t adjusting for the shift in timeshare fee accounting from Management to Franchise fees so their numbers aren’t really comparable.  Versus our numbers, the rest of the shortfall came from lower base management fees ($4MM)
  • Results from owned, leased, corporate housing and other were better than expected due to a combination of stronger owned/leased results and higher branding fees
    • MAR reported $56MM of segment results vs.
      • Guidance: $50MM
      • Consensus: $59MM
      • HE estimate: $52MM
    • They did not provide a breakout of branding fees so it’s hard to comment on margins on the own/leased portfolio
  • Not much to say on Timeshare other than:
    • Street numbers aren’t comparable since MAR reported a partial quarter and didn’t provide the typical historical disclosure
    • The partial revenues that they did report were lower than our numbers as were the partial segment results.  $17MM of the miss vs. our EBITDA estimate for the quarter was attributed to timeshare segment results
  • SG&A was $25MM higher than we estimated.  We thought that the SG&A attributed to timeshare was $25MM (based on prior disclosure) and that the clean 4Q10 number, including timeshare, was $240MM (excluding charges).  We assumed only a partial removal of SG&A for the quarter.  The clean number of $219MM looks lower than what we would have projected.  This obviously accounted for a large part of the discrepancy in numbers for us and probably consensus too.
  • Guidance thoughts
    • 1Q12 and full year RevPAR outlook looks fine – in-line
    • Fee guidance is in the range of consensus ($1,438MM) and in-line with our $1,428MM estimate
    • Owned, leased, corporate housing and other guidance is below consensus of $158MM and below our estimate of $154MM
    • EPS guidance is better than our estimate of $1.49 and in-line with street estimates of $1.59


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Trailer Homes

“We don’t want a society where when you lose your job you live in a trailer home, like in the U.S.”

-Nicholas Sarkozy

 

Over the course of my 13 years in this business, I’ve seen bubbles in Tech, Housing, and Keynesian Economics. Now the bubble in dumb politicians has gone global.

 

I know some people don’t like being called names. That’s why I call those ones in particular names. Sometimes, if you want to creatively destruct dogmas, you just have to pick a fight. That’s pretty easy to do with the left leaning leader of France.

 

Ironically enough, American politicians are now competing with the Japanese and Europeans on who can lean the most left in market interventions. When I left Canada in 1994, I never would have thunk I would see the day. It’s sad to watch.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I didn’t short the SP500 yesterday at 11:58AM (1355) because I wanted to pick a fight – it’s because my process had it immediate-term TRADE overbought. The process obviously isn’t perfect, but it is repeatable – and when I get something right, I know why.

 

Yesterday I wrote about being wrong and how I deal with my own issues. If you couldn’t tell, I have a lot of issues. My goal in life is to improve upon them. In addition to President Sarkozy, politicians who understand Keynesian Policies To Inflate are having some issues of their own this morning:

  1. JAPAN – the Yen continues to go down in a straight line this week, down another -0.54% this morning to $78.80 vs USD
  2. SPAIN – the Spaniards are having a tough time selling pig paper at lower yields (2.3B EUR in 2015 bonds priced at higher yields)
  3. VENEZUELA –the Latin American FX debaucherer, Hugo Chavez, has fallen behind his Presidential challenger, big time

Venezuela?

 

Yeah, I know you probably wanted someone to write to you about Greece or whatever a 12-month late Ratings Agency is thinking about what they should have warned you about 12 months ago…

 

Instead, consider the following about the Hugo Trailer Homes model (see chart):

  1. Collapse the currency
  2. Inflate the stock market
  3. Lose the Election

Last year, when almost 90% of country stock markets closed down for the YTD (sorry to remind everyone), Venezuela was up +79.1%. That was the best performing stock market in the world by a Madoff mile.

 

Instead of made for TV “rallies” on no volume (or inflows from The People), what does a Policy To Inflate get you in Venezuela, Wisconsin, or Milan?

 

Angry (and hungry) people.

 

We’ve never seen a $100 handle on the price of oil (pick your vintage – Brent, WTI, etc.) not Slow Global Growth. Now maybe the Sell-Side Strategists who told you to buy everything Global Equities on green last February are telling you it’s “Different This Time”, but I’m on the other side of that trade.

 

I can see exactly where perma-bulls are coming from – their risk management models have not changed. And that’s actually sad too. One of the many globally interconnected reasons I shorted SPY at 1355 instead of chasing it yesterday was that US Industrial Production Growth for January was reported at 0.00%.

 

Nice round number – and while The Bernank might like the ring of the zero percent thing, stock and commodity markets did not:

  1. US Industrials (XLI) were the worst performing S&P Sector of the day at -1.3%
  2. Dr Copper snapped its immediate-term TRADE line of $3.88/lb and is down another -1.1% this morning
  3. SP500 closed down for the 3rdday in the last 4

These are simply the facts. And I get paid to report them to you in the order that they are received.

 

Last week, I wrote a note telling you what I thought you should focus on instead of Greece:

  1. Japan’s Sovereign Debt Maturity Spike in March
  2. China’s Growth Slowing Sequentially (China’s Foreign Direct Investment reported overnight was down y/y!)
  3. The almost hyper global inflation/deflation relationship driven by policies driving the US Dollar

The bad news is that most of this is becoming new news to consensus. The Good news is where this all started is beginning to end – the US Dollar stabilizing in the last 48 hours is the most bullish fundamental factor I have in my notebook this morning.

 

While that may not be good for the guy who bought the Basic Materials ETF (XLB) or Freeport McMoran (FCX) at last week’s top, Deflating The Inflation is great for all my friends who grew up in Trailer Homes.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), EUR/USD, US Dollar Index, Spain’s IBEX, Shanghai Composite, and the SP500 are now $1, $116.79-119.79, $1.30-1.31, $79.01-79.73, 8, 2, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Trailer Homes - Chart of the Day

 

Trailer Homes - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 16, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.31% downside to 1339 and 0.80% upside to 1354. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -468 (347) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 806.39 (8.45%)
  • VIX:  21.14 8.19% YTD PERFORMANCE: -9.66%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.40 from 1.53 (56.86%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 38.83
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%
  • 10-Year: 1.91 from 1.93
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.65 from 1.67 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: PPI, M/m, Jan., est. 0.4% (from -0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Feb. 11, est. 365k (prior 358k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 675k (prior 657k)
  • 8:30am, Building Permits, Jan., est. 680k, (prior 671k revised)
  • 9:00am: Bernanke speaks on community banking in Arlington, Va.
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Feb. 12, est. -42.0 (prior -41.7)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Feb., est. 9.0 (prior 7.3)
  • 10am: 30-yr mortgage rates, Freddie Mac
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $9b 30-yr TIPS
  • U.S. Treasury to announce 2-, 5-, 7-yr auction sizes 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama attends campaign events in California
  • Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visits Iowa
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Energy and Commerce Committee hears from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski on its budget. 9am
    • Senate Energy Committee hears from Energy Secretary Steven Chu on the Energy Department’s 2013 budget request. 9:30am
    • Senate Budget Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the president’s 2013 budget request. 10am
    • House Homeland Security Committee holds hearing on monitoring of social networking and media. 10am
    • House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey on the 2013 defense budget request. 10am
    • House Appropriations Committee hears from Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on his department’s budget request. 1:30pm
    • House Budget Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the president’s budget request. 2pm
    • Senate Homeland Security Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on Cybersecurity Act. 2:30pm  

WHAT TO WATCH:   

  • Europe is set to make “all the necessary decisions” on Greece rescue on Feb. 20: Luxembourg prime minister
  • Morgan Stanley, UBS may be cut up to three levels by Moody’s
  • U.S. officials said to have intensified their focus on banks, Taiwan in insider-trading probe
  • Summers, Clinton said to be lead contenders for World Bank president
  • IAG says taking AMR stake in bankruptcy is “not on table”
  • Florida foreclosures climb 14% as lenders resume home seizures: RealtyTrac
  • House-Senate negotiators announce payroll deal completed
  • ABB falls as 4Q results show margin pressure
  • Cap Gemini reaches 6-month high on higher margin forecast 

EARNINGS:

  • Huntsman (HUN) 6am, $0.28
  • Nexen (NXY CN) 6am, C$0.44
  • SPX (SPW) 6am, $1.75
  • DENTSPLY International (XRAY) 6am, $0.52
  • Penn West Petroleum Ltd (PWT CN) 6:30am, C$0.15
  • Barrick Gold (ABX CN) 7am, $1.26
  • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.69
  • DTE Energy (DTE) 7am, $0.80
  • Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.22
  • Frontier Communications (FTR) 7am, $0.05
  • OGE Energy (OGE) 7am, $0.35
  • JM Smucker  (SJM) 7am, $1.41
  • TRW Automotive Holdings (TRW) 7am, $1.55
  • VF (VFC) 7am, $2.31
  • DirecTV (DTV) 7:30am, $0.92
  • General Motors (GM) 7:30am, $0.41
  • Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.13
  • Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.90
  • Progress Energy (PGN) 7:30am, $0.53
  • Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) 7:30am, $0.70
  • Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.60
  • Apache (APA) 8am, $2.87
  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 8:50am, C$0.78
  • Finning International (FTT CN) 8:56am, $0.34
  • PG&E (PCG) 9:04am, $0.85
  • CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, C$0.31
  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Pre-Mkt, $0.75
  • Nordstrom (JWN) 4pm, $1.10
  • Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX) 4pm, $0.25
  • DaVita (DVA) 4:01pm, $1.49
  • Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.15
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:04pm, $0.12
  • SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $(0.06)
  • Baidu (BIDU) 4:30pm, $5.69
  • EOG Resources (EOG) 4:35pm, $0.87
  • Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (FFH CN) 5:01pm, $(2.60) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – breaking our mo mo line of 3.88/lb support was one of the many Growth Slowing signals that had us short SPY at 1355 yesterday. This morning, copper = down -1.1% and 10yr UST yields are straight down to 1.91% as well. 

  • Biggest Mining Deals No Promise of Xstrata Bonanza: Commodities
  • Oil Declines From Five-Week High After Greek Bailout Delayed
  • China May Become World’s Biggest Gold User, Beating India
  • Commodities Drop From Six-Month High on Greek Default Concern
  • Gold Drops as Greece Bailout Concerns Boost Demand for Dollar
  • Soybeans Drop as Debt-Crisis Concerns Eclipse China’s Purchases
  • Robusta Coffee Swings Between Gains, Losses; Cocoa Retreats
  • U.K. Natural Gas Contracts Decline on Lower Demand; Power Falls
  • U.S. Says Iran’s Nuclear Breakthrough Is ‘Hype;’ Oil Pares Gain
  • Spain’s Cepsa Secures Crude From U.A.E. in Case of Iran Loss
  • Barrick Gold Earnings Trail Estimates as Mining Costs Increase
  • Rising Pump Prices in China to Cut Refining Loss: Energy Markets
  • Impala Calls for Help to Restart World-Biggest Platinum Mine
  • China Seen Topping India This Year on Gold
  • Gold Demand Fell 2.1% in Fourth Quarter on Jewelry, WGC Says
  • NYSE Liffe Wants to Start Delivery Limits on London Commodities
  • Malaysian Palm-Oil Exports Seen Rising 10%, Paring Reserves 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

SPAIN – the Spaniards are selling as much pig paper as they can (34% of their YTD needs) before someone figures out that Growth Slowing is what is going to crush their citizenry next. This morning’s debt auction finally came in at a higher yield (2015 bonds at 3.33% vs 2.86% last) and the IBEX is the 1st major European market to snap my immediate-term TRADE line of 8653 (down -2.1% leading decliners in Europe).


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

CHINA – after seeing its 1st y/y decline in Export growth in 2yrs (JAN -0.5%), this morning the Chinese reported a y/y decline in Foreign Direct Investment of -0.3% y/y. Chinese government guys called it “grim” (see Bloomberg article) – volumes on the NYSE aren’t the only thing in the world that have slowed to a halt.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


THE M3: S'PORE Q4 GDP

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 16, 2012

 

 

SINGAPORE 4Q GDP CONTRACTION REVISED DOWN BUT GLOBAL RISKS REMAIN Channel News Asia
The Ministry of Trade and Industry said S'pore GDP in Q4 2011 contracted 2.5% QoQ in seasonally adjusted, annualized terms, smaller than the 4.9% contraction estimated last month.  The government maintained its previous forecast that the economy will grow 1%-3% in 2012, and highlighted uncertainty surrounding the global economy, namely political and economic problems in the euro zone and geopolitical risks arising from the Middle East.

 


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