TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 16, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.31% downside to 1339 and 0.80% upside to 1354.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -468 (347)
- VOLUME: NYSE 806.39 (8.45%)
- VIX: 21.14 8.19% YTD PERFORMANCE: -9.66%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.40 from 1.53 (56.86%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 38.83
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%
- 10-Year: 1.91 from 1.93
- YIELD CURVE: 1.65 from 1.67
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: PPI, M/m, Jan., est. 0.4% (from -0.1%)
- 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Feb. 11, est. 365k (prior 358k)
- 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 675k (prior 657k)
- 8:30am, Building Permits, Jan., est. 680k, (prior 671k revised)
- 9:00am: Bernanke speaks on community banking in Arlington, Va.
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Feb. 12, est. -42.0 (prior -41.7)
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Feb., est. 9.0 (prior 7.3)
- 10am: 30-yr mortgage rates, Freddie Mac
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $9b 30-yr TIPS
- U.S. Treasury to announce 2-, 5-, 7-yr auction sizes
GOVERNMENT:
- President Obama attends campaign events in California
- Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visits Iowa
- House, Senate in session:
- House Energy and Commerce Committee hears from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski on its budget. 9am
- Senate Energy Committee hears from Energy Secretary Steven Chu on the Energy Department’s 2013 budget request. 9:30am
- Senate Budget Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the president’s 2013 budget request. 10am
- House Homeland Security Committee holds hearing on monitoring of social networking and media. 10am
- House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey on the 2013 defense budget request. 10am
- House Appropriations Committee hears from Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on his department’s budget request. 1:30pm
- House Budget Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the president’s budget request. 2pm
- Senate Homeland Security Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on Cybersecurity Act. 2:30pm
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Europe is set to make “all the necessary decisions” on Greece rescue on Feb. 20: Luxembourg prime minister
- Morgan Stanley, UBS may be cut up to three levels by Moody’s
- U.S. officials said to have intensified their focus on banks, Taiwan in insider-trading probe
- Summers, Clinton said to be lead contenders for World Bank president
- IAG says taking AMR stake in bankruptcy is “not on table”
- Florida foreclosures climb 14% as lenders resume home seizures: RealtyTrac
- House-Senate negotiators announce payroll deal completed
- ABB falls as 4Q results show margin pressure
- Cap Gemini reaches 6-month high on higher margin forecast
EARNINGS:
- Huntsman (HUN) 6am, $0.28
- Nexen (NXY CN) 6am, C$0.44
- SPX (SPW) 6am, $1.75
- DENTSPLY International (XRAY) 6am, $0.52
- Penn West Petroleum Ltd (PWT CN) 6:30am, C$0.15
- Barrick Gold (ABX CN) 7am, $1.26
- Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.69
- DTE Energy (DTE) 7am, $0.80
- Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.22
- Frontier Communications (FTR) 7am, $0.05
- OGE Energy (OGE) 7am, $0.35
- JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.41
- TRW Automotive Holdings (TRW) 7am, $1.55
- VF (VFC) 7am, $2.31
- DirecTV (DTV) 7:30am, $0.92
- General Motors (GM) 7:30am, $0.41
- Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.13
- Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.90
- Progress Energy (PGN) 7:30am, $0.53
- Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) 7:30am, $0.70
- Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.60
- Apache (APA) 8am, $2.87
- Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 8:50am, C$0.78
- Finning International (FTT CN) 8:56am, $0.34
- PG&E (PCG) 9:04am, $0.85
- CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, C$0.31
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Pre-Mkt, $0.75
- Nordstrom (JWN) 4pm, $1.10
- Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX) 4pm, $0.25
- DaVita (DVA) 4:01pm, $1.49
- Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.15
- Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:04pm, $0.12
- SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $(0.06)
- Baidu (BIDU) 4:30pm, $5.69
- EOG Resources (EOG) 4:35pm, $0.87
- Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (FFH CN) 5:01pm, $(2.60)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – breaking our mo mo line of 3.88/lb support was one of the many Growth Slowing signals that had us short SPY at 1355 yesterday. This morning, copper = down -1.1% and 10yr UST yields are straight down to 1.91% as well.
- Biggest Mining Deals No Promise of Xstrata Bonanza: Commodities
- Oil Declines From Five-Week High After Greek Bailout Delayed
- China May Become World’s Biggest Gold User, Beating India
- Commodities Drop From Six-Month High on Greek Default Concern
- Gold Drops as Greece Bailout Concerns Boost Demand for Dollar
- Soybeans Drop as Debt-Crisis Concerns Eclipse China’s Purchases
- Robusta Coffee Swings Between Gains, Losses; Cocoa Retreats
- U.K. Natural Gas Contracts Decline on Lower Demand; Power Falls
- U.S. Says Iran’s Nuclear Breakthrough Is ‘Hype;’ Oil Pares Gain
- Spain’s Cepsa Secures Crude From U.A.E. in Case of Iran Loss
- Barrick Gold Earnings Trail Estimates as Mining Costs Increase
- Rising Pump Prices in China to Cut Refining Loss: Energy Markets
- Impala Calls for Help to Restart World-Biggest Platinum Mine
- China Seen Topping India This Year on Gold
- Gold Demand Fell 2.1% in Fourth Quarter on Jewelry, WGC Says
- NYSE Liffe Wants to Start Delivery Limits on London Commodities
- Malaysian Palm-Oil Exports Seen Rising 10%, Paring Reserves
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
SPAIN – the Spaniards are selling as much pig paper as they can (34% of their YTD needs) before someone figures out that Growth Slowing is what is going to crush their citizenry next. This morning’s debt auction finally came in at a higher yield (2015 bonds at 3.33% vs 2.86% last) and the IBEX is the 1st major European market to snap my immediate-term TRADE line of 8653 (down -2.1% leading decliners in Europe).
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – after seeing its 1st y/y decline in Export growth in 2yrs (JAN -0.5%), this morning the Chinese reported a y/y decline in Foreign Direct Investment of -0.3% y/y. Chinese government guys called it “grim” (see Bloomberg article) – volumes on the NYSE aren’t the only thing in the world that have slowed to a halt.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
