THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 16, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.31% downside to 1339 and 0.80% upside to 1354. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -468 (347) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 806.39 (8.45%)
  • VIX:  21.14 8.19% YTD PERFORMANCE: -9.66%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.40 from 1.53 (56.86%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 38.83
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%
  • 10-Year: 1.91 from 1.93
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.65 from 1.67 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: PPI, M/m, Jan., est. 0.4% (from -0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Feb. 11, est. 365k (prior 358k)
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 675k (prior 657k)
  • 8:30am, Building Permits, Jan., est. 680k, (prior 671k revised)
  • 9:00am: Bernanke speaks on community banking in Arlington, Va.
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week Feb. 12, est. -42.0 (prior -41.7)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed., Feb., est. 9.0 (prior 7.3)
  • 10am: 30-yr mortgage rates, Freddie Mac
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $9b 30-yr TIPS
  • U.S. Treasury to announce 2-, 5-, 7-yr auction sizes 

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama attends campaign events in California
  • Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping visits Iowa
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Energy and Commerce Committee hears from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski on its budget. 9am
    • Senate Energy Committee hears from Energy Secretary Steven Chu on the Energy Department’s 2013 budget request. 9:30am
    • Senate Budget Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the president’s 2013 budget request. 10am
    • House Homeland Security Committee holds hearing on monitoring of social networking and media. 10am
    • House Appropriations subcommittee hears from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey on the 2013 defense budget request. 10am
    • House Appropriations Committee hears from Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on his department’s budget request. 1:30pm
    • House Budget Committee hears from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the president’s budget request. 2pm
    • Senate Homeland Security Committee hears from Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on Cybersecurity Act. 2:30pm  

WHAT TO WATCH:   

  • Europe is set to make “all the necessary decisions” on Greece rescue on Feb. 20: Luxembourg prime minister
  • Morgan Stanley, UBS may be cut up to three levels by Moody’s
  • U.S. officials said to have intensified their focus on banks, Taiwan in insider-trading probe
  • Summers, Clinton said to be lead contenders for World Bank president
  • IAG says taking AMR stake in bankruptcy is “not on table”
  • Florida foreclosures climb 14% as lenders resume home seizures: RealtyTrac
  • House-Senate negotiators announce payroll deal completed
  • ABB falls as 4Q results show margin pressure
  • Cap Gemini reaches 6-month high on higher margin forecast 

EARNINGS:

  • Huntsman (HUN) 6am, $0.28
  • Nexen (NXY CN) 6am, C$0.44
  • SPX (SPW) 6am, $1.75
  • DENTSPLY International (XRAY) 6am, $0.52
  • Penn West Petroleum Ltd (PWT CN) 6:30am, C$0.15
  • Barrick Gold (ABX CN) 7am, $1.26
  • Discovery Communications (DISCA) 7am, $0.69
  • DTE Energy (DTE) 7am, $0.80
  • Duke Energy (DUK) 7am, $0.22
  • Frontier Communications (FTR) 7am, $0.05
  • OGE Energy (OGE) 7am, $0.35
  • JM Smucker  (SJM) 7am, $1.41
  • TRW Automotive Holdings (TRW) 7am, $1.55
  • VF (VFC) 7am, $2.31
  • DirecTV (DTV) 7:30am, $0.92
  • General Motors (GM) 7:30am, $0.41
  • Hyatt Hotels (H) 7:30am, $0.13
  • Health Care REIT (HCN) 7:30am, $0.90
  • Progress Energy (PGN) 7:30am, $0.53
  • Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) 7:30am, $0.70
  • Waste Management (WM) 7:30am, $0.60
  • Apache (APA) 8am, $2.87
  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 8:50am, C$0.78
  • Finning International (FTT CN) 8:56am, $0.34
  • PG&E (PCG) 9:04am, $0.85
  • CI Financial (CIX CN) 11:17am, C$0.31
  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Pre-Mkt, $0.75
  • Nordstrom (JWN) 4pm, $1.10
  • Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX) 4pm, $0.25
  • DaVita (DVA) 4:01pm, $1.49
  • Aruba Networks (ARUN) 4:03pm, $0.15
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:04pm, $0.12
  • SunPower (SPWR) 4:05pm, $(0.06)
  • Baidu (BIDU) 4:30pm, $5.69
  • EOG Resources (EOG) 4:35pm, $0.87
  • Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (FFH CN) 5:01pm, $(2.60) 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – breaking our mo mo line of 3.88/lb support was one of the many Growth Slowing signals that had us short SPY at 1355 yesterday. This morning, copper = down -1.1% and 10yr UST yields are straight down to 1.91% as well. 

  • Biggest Mining Deals No Promise of Xstrata Bonanza: Commodities
  • Oil Declines From Five-Week High After Greek Bailout Delayed
  • China May Become World’s Biggest Gold User, Beating India
  • Commodities Drop From Six-Month High on Greek Default Concern
  • Gold Drops as Greece Bailout Concerns Boost Demand for Dollar
  • Soybeans Drop as Debt-Crisis Concerns Eclipse China’s Purchases
  • Robusta Coffee Swings Between Gains, Losses; Cocoa Retreats
  • U.K. Natural Gas Contracts Decline on Lower Demand; Power Falls
  • U.S. Says Iran’s Nuclear Breakthrough Is ‘Hype;’ Oil Pares Gain
  • Spain’s Cepsa Secures Crude From U.A.E. in Case of Iran Loss
  • Barrick Gold Earnings Trail Estimates as Mining Costs Increase
  • Rising Pump Prices in China to Cut Refining Loss: Energy Markets
  • Impala Calls for Help to Restart World-Biggest Platinum Mine
  • China Seen Topping India This Year on Gold
  • Gold Demand Fell 2.1% in Fourth Quarter on Jewelry, WGC Says
  • NYSE Liffe Wants to Start Delivery Limits on London Commodities
  • Malaysian Palm-Oil Exports Seen Rising 10%, Paring Reserves 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

SPAIN – the Spaniards are selling as much pig paper as they can (34% of their YTD needs) before someone figures out that Growth Slowing is what is going to crush their citizenry next. This morning’s debt auction finally came in at a higher yield (2015 bonds at 3.33% vs 2.86% last) and the IBEX is the 1st major European market to snap my immediate-term TRADE line of 8653 (down -2.1% leading decliners in Europe).


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

CHINA – after seeing its 1st y/y decline in Export growth in 2yrs (JAN -0.5%), this morning the Chinese reported a y/y decline in Foreign Direct Investment of -0.3% y/y. Chinese government guys called it “grim” (see Bloomberg article) – volumes on the NYSE aren’t the only thing in the world that have slowed to a halt.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 


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