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Aggregate Macau revenues in November were probably better than expectations, up 3%. However, growth has slowed considerably and will turn negative over the next few months. The flood of credit that permeated the market earlier this year has receded. Beijing’s tightening of the visa spigot prevents the mass market from filling the gap. It’s all about market share for awhile.

The most important take away from November is the continued market share loss in both Rolling Chip (RC) and Mass Market (MM) by Wynn Macau. Wynn lost almost 3% of MM share in the last 2 months, including 1.2% in November alone. On the RC side, Wynn’s share dropped 4.5% and 1.7%, respectively. At least as it relates to RC, the lost share is not related to luck. Wynn’s share of RC turnover fell 2.4% in November.

After 2 months of the quarter, Wynn Macau appears to be tracking below Street consensus for revenue. Unfortunately, Las Vegas will likely fall short as well. October Strip revenues just came out and they were horrendous, down 26%.

WYNN remains a great company with a terrific balance sheet and liquidity. While they are the best positioned in each of their markets, estimates need to come down, potentially materially. An early January pre-announcement is increasingly likely.