TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 15, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.41% downside to 1345 and 0.70% upside to 1360.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -815 (-2422)
- VOLUME: NYSE 743.55 (8.92%)
- VIX: 19.54 2.63% YTD PERFORMANCE: -16.50%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.53 from 2.38 (-35.71%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
10yr – the bond market says Growth Slowing is a bigger problem than inflation rising. UST 10yr is now breaking our only line of remaining support (1.96%) into a Bearish Formation (bearish yields on all 3 risk mgt durations – TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), so this will be a very interesting day. Bond yields breaking down have front run US Growth expectations for a long time now.
- TED SPREAD: 39.08
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%
- 10-Year: 1.94 from 1.94
- YIELD CURVE: 1.67 from 1.65
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 5:30am: Bank of England releases growth, inflation forecasts
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior up 7.5%
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Feb., est. 15 (prior 13.48)
- 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec., est. $45b (prior $59.8b)
- 9:15am: Industrial Production, Jan, est up 0.7% (prior up 0.4%)
- 9:15am: Fed’s Fisher speaks in San Marcos, Texas
- 10am: NAHB Housing Market index, Feb., est. 26 (prior 25)
- 10:30am: DoE crude inventories,e st. build 1600k (prior build 304k)
- 2pm: FOMC minutes from Jan. 24-25 meeting
GOVERNMENT:
- Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, other Cabinet officials testify before Congress on Obama budget, 10am
- Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping delivers address at U.S.- China Business Council luncheon, noon
- Senate, House in session
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. industrial production may have accelerated 0.7% in Jan., economists est., would be biggest gain in six months
- German, Franch 4Q GDP beats ests., Italy slips into recession; euro-area economy shrinks 0.3%
- Obama tells Xi China’s rise comes with duty on trade, rights
- Yahoo-Alibaba talks falter as investor steps up pressure
- U.S. investigating Goldman analyst on insider tips, WSJ says
- Berkshire takes Liberty Media, DaVita stakes as Weschler joins
- LightSquared to be blocked by FCC after U.S. interference report
- Citigroup, others release monthly credit-card delinquencies, charge-offs
- Nasdaq, Bats websites attacked; trading systems unaffected
- China pledges to invest in Europe’s bailout funds, hold euros
- Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference includes presentations from Microsoft, Cisco, eBay
EARNINGS:
- Cimarex Energy (XEC) 6 a.m., $1.31
- Cenovous (CVE CN) 6 a.m., $0.53
- Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) 6:30 a.m., $0.48
- WellCare (WCG) 6:30 a.m., $1.19
- Amtrust Financial Services Inv (AFSI), 7 a.m., $0.63
- Comcast (CMCSA) 7 a.m., $0.42
- Deere (DE) 7 a.m., $1.24
- Incyte (INCY) 7 a.m., ($0.41)
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 7 a.m., $1.12
- Henry Schein (HSIC) 7 a.m., $1.12
- Avista (AVA), 7:05 a.m., $0.45
- Penske Automotive (PAG) 7:25 a.m., $0.41
- Owens Corning (OC) 7:30 a.m., $0.48
- Watsco (WSO), 7:30 a.m., $0.34
- Scana (SCG) 7:30 a.m., $0.78
- Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW) 7:37 a.m., $1.91
- Devon Energy (DVN) 7:55 a.m., $1.49
- Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) 8 a.m., ($0.86)
- Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) 8 a.m., $0.74
- Dean Foods (DF) 8 a.m., $0.23
- Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) 8:30 a.m., $0.59
- Allete (ALE) 8:30 a.m., $0.57
- Clearwire (CLWR) 4 p.m., ($0.37)
- Itron (ITRI) 4 p.m., $1.00
- Stifel Financial (SF) 4 p.m., $0.43
- NetApp (NTAP) 4 p.m., $0.58
- Trinity Industries (TRN) 4:01 p.m., $0.44
- CBS Corp (CBS) 4:01 p.m., $0.53
- Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI) 4:01 p.m., $0.51
- Ancestry.com Inc (ACOM) 4:01 p.m. $0.34
- Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01 p.m., $0.24
- Equinix (EQIX) 4:01 p.m., $0.46
- Netlogic Microsystems (NETL) 4:02 p.m., $0.37
- Glimcher Realty Trust (GRT) 4:02 p.m., $0.21
- Jarden Corp. (JAH) 4:05 p.m., $0.91
- Morningstar Inc. (MORN), 4:05 p.m., $0.56
- Russel Metals (RUS CN) 4:05 p.m., $0.40
- Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05 p.m., $0.69
- National Health Investors (NHI) 4:07 p.m., $0.76
- Marriott Internationa (MAR) 4:10 p.m., $0.47
- Tesla Motors (TSLA) 4:10 p.m., ($0.62)
- Intrepid Potash (IPI), 4:15 p.m., $0.30
- C&J Energy Services (CJES) 4:15 p.m., $0.91
- Avis Budget Group (CAR) 4:15 p.m., $0.06
- Regency Energy Partners (RGP) 4:15 p.m., $0.13
- Kinross Gold (K CN) 4:15 p.m., $0.21
- CF Industries Holdings (CF) 4:18 p.m., $6.82
- Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) 4:19 p.m. $0.24
- Delphi Financial Group (DFG) 4:20 p.m. $0.88
- Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) 4:30 p.m., $0.47
- ION Geophysical (IO) 4:30 p.m., $0.16
- CenturyLink (CTL) 4:48 p.m., $0.61
- Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) 5 p.m., $0.98
- Oceaneering International Inc (OII) 5 p.m., $0.52
- MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 5:03 p.m., ($0.08)
- Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC) 5:09 p.m., $0.12
- Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 5:09 p.m., $0.66
- Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10 p.m., (C$0.60)
- Goldcorp (G CN) 5:15 p.m. $0.60
- Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 5:15 p.m., $0.42
- Terex Corp. (TEX) 5:27 p.m., ($0.25)
- Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) 5:42 p.m., $1.43
- Vectren Corp (VVC) 6:01 p.m., $0.57
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) 6:12 p.m., ($0.37)
- Manning & Napier (MN), postmkt, $0.25
- Westport Innovations (WPRT), postmkt, ($0.20)
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
OIL – Brent or WTI, take your pick – both are in what we call a Bullish Formation (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) – and both have a systematic ability to infect (slow) Consumption growth both in the US and around the world. Feels like Q1/Q2 of 2011 all over again where consensus is still anchoring on the last 2 quarters of US GDP growth being good (it was).
- Coal Miner Turns Dealmaker at London Metal Exchange: Commodities
- Paulson Joins Tudor Selling SPDR Gold Shares as Soros Buys
- Crude Oil Advances as China Pledges Help on European Debt Crisis
- Commodities Climb to Six-Month High as Growth May Revive Demand
- Wheat Gains as Frost May Curb Ukrainian Production, Exports
- Cocoa Rises as Olam Says Beans Have ‘More Upside’; Coffee Gains
- Gold May Rise After China’s Pledge to Aid Europe Weakens Dollar
- Copper May Rise on Chinese Vow to Help Resolve Euro Debt Crisis
- China Steel Price Shows Asia Optimism Overdone: Chart of the Day
- Oil Refiners to Have Surplus Capacity in 2012, Barclays Says
- Brent Oil May Rise to $120 on Low Spare Supply, Goldman Says
- Asia Naphtha Refining Profits Reach Two-Week High: Oil Products
- Drillers Trailing High Yield Amid Fracking Boom: Canada Credit
- Chavez Misses $10 Billion a Month Curbing Oil Spending: Energy
- Nickel May Test Lower End of Range Trading: Technical Analysis
- Vancouver Could Handle More Kinder Morgan Oil, Port CEO Says
- Iran Oil Premium Defies Analysts Rejecting Risk: Energy Markets
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN – the Nikkei busted a surprisingly bullish move = +2.3% overnight as the Yen remained under central planning pressure (-0.2% at 78.15 USD/YEN); the Nikkei getting squeezed like France’s CAC did right up to its long-term TAIL of resistance (TAILS: Nikkei = 9397, CAC = 3556) is what it is – largely a Pain Trade that tends to capitulate as the end of the rally nears. We’re long China, short Japan.
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team