• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Here

    MARKET EDGES

    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 15, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.41% downside to 1345 and 0.70% upside to 1360. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -815 (-2422) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 743.55 (8.92%)
  • VIX:  19.54 2.63% YTD PERFORMANCE: -16.50%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.53 from 2.38 (-35.71%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

10yr – the bond market says Growth Slowing is a bigger problem than inflation rising. UST 10yr is now breaking our only line of remaining support (1.96%) into a Bearish Formation (bearish yields on all 3 risk mgt durations – TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), so this will be a very interesting day. Bond yields breaking down have front run US Growth expectations for a long time now. 

  • TED SPREAD: 39.08
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%
  • 10-Year: 1.94 from 1.94
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.67 from 1.65 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 5:30am: Bank of England releases growth, inflation forecasts
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior up 7.5%
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Feb., est. 15 (prior 13.48)
  • 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec., est. $45b (prior $59.8b)
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production, Jan, est up 0.7% (prior up 0.4%)
  • 9:15am: Fed’s Fisher speaks in San Marcos, Texas
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market index, Feb., est. 26 (prior 25)
  • 10:30am: DoE crude inventories,e st. build 1600k (prior build 304k)
  • 2pm: FOMC minutes from Jan. 24-25 meeting 

GOVERNMENT:

    • Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, other Cabinet officials testify before Congress on Obama budget, 10am
    • Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping delivers address at U.S.- China Business Council luncheon, noon
    • Senate, House in session 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. industrial production may have accelerated 0.7% in Jan., economists est., would be biggest gain in six months
  • German, Franch 4Q GDP beats ests., Italy slips into recession; euro-area economy shrinks 0.3%
  • Obama tells Xi China’s rise comes with duty on trade, rights
  • Yahoo-Alibaba talks falter as investor steps up pressure
  • U.S. investigating Goldman analyst on insider tips, WSJ says
  • Berkshire takes Liberty Media, DaVita stakes as Weschler joins
  • LightSquared to be blocked by FCC after U.S. interference report
  • Citigroup, others release monthly credit-card delinquencies, charge-offs
  • Nasdaq, Bats websites attacked; trading systems unaffected
  • China pledges to invest in Europe’s bailout funds, hold euros
  • Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference includes presentations from Microsoft, Cisco, eBay 

EARNINGS: 

    • Cimarex Energy (XEC) 6 a.m., $1.31
    • Cenovous (CVE CN) 6 a.m., $0.53
    • Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) 6:30 a.m., $0.48
    • WellCare (WCG) 6:30 a.m., $1.19
    • Amtrust Financial Services Inv (AFSI), 7 a.m., $0.63
    • Comcast  (CMCSA) 7 a.m., $0.42
    • Deere (DE) 7 a.m., $1.24
    • Incyte (INCY) 7 a.m., ($0.41)
    • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) 7 a.m., $1.12
    • Henry Schein (HSIC) 7 a.m., $1.12
    • Avista (AVA), 7:05 a.m., $0.45
    • Penske Automotive (PAG) 7:25 a.m., $0.41
    • Owens Corning (OC) 7:30 a.m., $0.48
    • Watsco (WSO), 7:30 a.m., $0.34
    • Scana (SCG) 7:30 a.m., $0.78
    • Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW) 7:37 a.m., $1.91
    • Devon Energy (DVN) 7:55 a.m., $1.49
    • Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) 8 a.m., ($0.86)
    • Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) 8 a.m., $0.74
    • Dean Foods (DF) 8 a.m., $0.23
    • Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) 8:30 a.m., $0.59
    • Allete (ALE) 8:30 a.m., $0.57
    • Clearwire (CLWR) 4 p.m., ($0.37)
    • Itron (ITRI) 4 p.m., $1.00
    • Stifel Financial (SF) 4 p.m., $0.43
    • NetApp (NTAP) 4 p.m., $0.58
    • Trinity Industries (TRN) 4:01 p.m., $0.44
    • CBS Corp (CBS) 4:01 p.m., $0.53
    • Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI) 4:01 p.m., $0.51
    • Ancestry.com Inc (ACOM) 4:01 p.m. $0.34
    • Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01 p.m., $0.24
    • Equinix (EQIX) 4:01 p.m., $0.46
    • Netlogic Microsystems (NETL) 4:02 p.m., $0.37
    • Glimcher Realty Trust (GRT) 4:02 p.m., $0.21
    • Jarden Corp. (JAH) 4:05 p.m., $0.91
    • Morningstar Inc. (MORN), 4:05 p.m., $0.56
    • Russel Metals (RUS CN) 4:05 p.m., $0.40
    • Agilent Technologies (A) 4:05 p.m., $0.69
    • National Health Investors (NHI) 4:07 p.m., $0.76
    • Marriott Internationa (MAR) 4:10 p.m., $0.47
    • Tesla Motors (TSLA) 4:10 p.m., ($0.62)
    • Intrepid Potash (IPI), 4:15 p.m., $0.30
    • C&J Energy Services (CJES) 4:15 p.m., $0.91
    • Avis Budget Group (CAR) 4:15 p.m., $0.06
    • Regency Energy Partners (RGP) 4:15 p.m., $0.13
    • Kinross Gold (K CN) 4:15 p.m., $0.21
    • CF Industries Holdings (CF) 4:18 p.m., $6.82
    • Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) 4:19 p.m. $0.24
    • Delphi Financial Group (DFG) 4:20 p.m. $0.88
    • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) 4:30 p.m., $0.47
    • ION Geophysical (IO) 4:30 p.m., $0.16
    • CenturyLink (CTL) 4:48 p.m., $0.61
    • Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) 5 p.m., $0.98
    • Oceaneering International Inc (OII) 5 p.m., $0.52
    • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 5:03 p.m., ($0.08)
    • Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC) 5:09 p.m., $0.12
    • Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) 5:09 p.m., $0.66
    • Sun Life Financial (SLF CN) 5:10 p.m., (C$0.60)
    • Goldcorp (G CN) 5:15 p.m. $0.60
    • Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) 5:15 p.m., $0.42
    • Terex Corp. (TEX) 5:27 p.m., ($0.25)
    • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) 5:42 p.m., $1.43
    • Vectren Corp (VVC) 6:01 p.m., $0.57
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) 6:12 p.m., ($0.37)
    • Manning & Napier (MN), postmkt, $0.25
    • Westport Innovations (WPRT), postmkt, ($0.20)  

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

OIL – Brent or WTI, take your pick – both are in what we call a Bullish Formation (bullish TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) – and both have a systematic ability to infect (slow) Consumption growth both in the US and around the world. Feels like Q1/Q2 of 2011 all over again where consensus is still anchoring on the last 2 quarters of US GDP growth being good (it was). 

  • Coal Miner Turns Dealmaker at London Metal Exchange: Commodities
  • Paulson Joins Tudor Selling SPDR Gold Shares as Soros Buys
  • Crude Oil Advances as China Pledges Help on European Debt Crisis
  • Commodities Climb to Six-Month High as Growth May Revive Demand
  • Wheat Gains as Frost May Curb Ukrainian Production, Exports
  • Cocoa Rises as Olam Says Beans Have ‘More Upside’; Coffee Gains
  • Gold May Rise After China’s Pledge to Aid Europe Weakens Dollar
  • Copper May Rise on Chinese Vow to Help Resolve Euro Debt Crisis
  • China Steel Price Shows Asia Optimism Overdone: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Refiners to Have Surplus Capacity in 2012, Barclays Says
  • Brent Oil May Rise to $120 on Low Spare Supply, Goldman Says
  • Asia Naphtha Refining Profits Reach Two-Week High: Oil Products
  • Drillers Trailing High Yield Amid Fracking Boom: Canada Credit
  • Chavez Misses $10 Billion a Month Curbing Oil Spending: Energy
  • Nickel May Test Lower End of Range Trading: Technical Analysis
  • Vancouver Could Handle More Kinder Morgan Oil, Port CEO Says
  • Iran Oil Premium Defies Analysts Rejecting Risk: Energy Markets 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

JAPAN – the Nikkei busted a surprisingly bullish move = +2.3% overnight as the Yen remained under central planning pressure (-0.2% at 78.15 USD/YEN); the Nikkei getting squeezed like France’s CAC did right up to its long-term TAIL of resistance (TAILS: Nikkei = 9397, CAC = 3556) is what it is – largely a Pain Trade that tends to capitulate as the end of the rally nears. We’re long China, short Japan.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

The Hedgeye Macro Team