Trend vs. Trade – A look at CAKE, STZ, DF, WEN, SBUX and MCD

The multi-factor approach:

CAKE - CAKE, finally looks like it's a long, for a "Trade"…….

STZ - wine worked again today; STZ continues to flash + divergence on my screens as of late...

DF - DF looks ok still here; holding 15.07 is bullish, closing below that line puts 12.87 in play...

WEN - WEN, we sold well, but looks like a repo as long as it can hold 3.65….

SBUX - SBUX ran into the goal post (Canadian Football) and failed to hold on in the end zone at 9.44 today…

MCD - Big line in the sand here is 58.38… Ackman’s McDonald’s is not Kroc’s… inasmuch as Blankfein’s GS not being Marcus’

The Fundamentals:

CAKE – 60% of CAKE’s store base is located in the states that are exposed to the worst part of the economic down turn. As a result, the fundamentals are very ugly, but at some point that is baked in.

STZ – Working on a fundamental thesis

DF – If we can get past the Organic issues, the balance of the business is rock solid, but with leverage.

WEN – WEN is in a strong position to right size the ship.

SBUX – I just got an email from SBUX – Christmas is 20% merrier this year! December 9-15th As a SBUX Gold member, I now get 30% off my purchase…… Last week at the analyst meeting they were talking about not discounting in the store, but using discounts at other retailers like Costco and/or using a “card.” Did things change so quickly? However, not only can you get 20% off on all merchandise in

SBUX’s stores, you can also buy SBUX’s stock for 60% off from last year.

MCD – I’m concerned about where MCD is headed. I don’t like the premium coffee strategy in 2009. At the same time the $ is will significantly cut in the perception of how strong MCD growth is ….