What’s Next in Europe?

---There are a lot of moving parts in the coming days and weeks in Europe.  Below we show a calendar of the more notable events.  As we’ve stated on numerous occasions, there will be no Bazooka to magically cure the sovereign and banking imbalances across Europe.  Managing risk will include factoring in the uncertainty around decisions Eurocrats agree upon as they direct the Eurozone project forward.

15 February: European Finance Ministers will meet again and potentially sign off on the Greek bailout deal, although Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker says there are no guarantees a final decision will be made then. 

27 February:  The German Bundestag plans to vote on the issue of Greece’s second bailout, including the embedded terms of the PSI.

25-26 February:  G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Mexico City. Decision on IMF loan of €500B is expected.

29 February:  2nd 36-Month LTRO Allotment.

29 February:  Eurogroup Meeting to sign the previously endorsed agreement between the 17 members on the Treaty for the European Stability Mechanism.

 

1-2 March:  Signing of the Fiscal Compact by 17 Eurozone leaders together with the non-euro area leaders of countries willing to join. Further, the group will reassess the adequacy of resources under the EFSF and ESM rescue funds.

20 March: Greece’s €14.5 billion Bond Redemption due.

April:  French Elections (Round 1) begins to conclude in May.

 

30 June:  Deadline for EU Banks to meet €106 billion capital target/the 9% Tier 1 capital ratio.

1 July:  ESM to come into force.

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst