THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR
MACRO NOTES
Comments from CEO Keith McCullough
Consensus continues to clamor for Greek headlines – meanwhile the rest of the world’s globally interconnected risk continues to manifest:
- JAPAN – top 3 economy in the world drops to a -2.3% y/y GDP print in Q411 (brutal); now its full throttle game on for the Japanese as we head toward a massive sov debt maturity in March ($745B!). When we were getting hawked up about Italian debt in Feb of 2011, consensus didn’t have it in the area code of its map either. Stay tuned…
- FRANCE – alongside covering our SPY short, we covered our French Equity short position on Friday as well. Typically, short-and-hold isn’t what I do. That said, I’m watching the long-term TAIL line of resistance for the CAC of 3556 very closely as I think that’s going to be a good proxy for non-German European growth/inflation for the next few quarters.
- OIL – hooo-wah! Big breakout for Brent Oil to $118.28/barrel this morning w/ no immediate-term TRADE resistance to $120ish. If you’re looking for the #1 factor that will slow global consumption growth sequentially here in February (vs what was a big growth ramp in DEC/JAN), the black stuff in the barrel is it.
Immediate-term TRADE range for SP500 is now 1338 (where I covered Friday) to 1360. Keep moving out there.
KM
SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE
QUICK SERVICE
SBUX: A Starbucks in Athens burned last night as rioters set fire to buildings during unrest following the Greek parliament’s passing of another austerity bill.
NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:
CBOU, WEN and COSI all led the QSR space on accelerating volume
DNKN declined on accelerating volume Friday.
CASUAL DINING
CAKE: Cheesecake Factory is to change its menus at its seven Massachusetts locations to include prices by March 16th, according to the Boston Herald. A Massachusetts based attorney, Ross Mitchell, threatened to sue the chain for deceptive business practices after receiving a check that exceeded expectations.
CAKE: In more bad news for Cheesecake Factory, one of its restaurants in Boise is at the center of a possible Hepatitis A scare, according to local media.
NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:
RUTH: Gained 2.7% on accelerating volume following earnings.
BWLD: Continues higher, up 1.3% on accelerating volume.
PFCB: Down -1.2% on accelerating volume.
KONA: Declined -3.7% on accelerating volume.
Howard Penney
Managing Director
Rory Green
Analyst
