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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 9, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -1.48% downside to 1330 and 0.74% upside to 1360. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 480 (91) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 765.35 (4.99%)
  • VIX:  18.16 2.89% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.39%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.40 from 3.12 (-55.13%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 43.69
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 2.00 from 1.98
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.73

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 6:30am: OPEC monthly crude output report
  • 7am: BoE announces interest rate decision; est. 0.50%, unchanged
  • 7:45am: ECB announces rate decision, est. 1%, unchanged
  • 8:30am: Initial jobless claims, week of Feb. 4, est. 370k (prior 367k)
  • 8:30am: WASDE
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Feb. 5 (prior -44.8)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Dec., est. 0.4% (prior 0.1%)
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 30-yr bonds

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

  • President Barack Obama meets with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in Oval Office, TBA
  • U.S. Postal Service, which may run out of money this year, reports quarterly results after 8:30am
  • Conservative Political Action Conference begins in D.C., with speakers including Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, House Speaker John Boehner, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House meets at 9am to consider amendments to bill on insider trading
    • Senate Judiciary marks up bill on televising Supreme Court proceedings, votes on federal judge nominations, 10am
    • House Energy and Commerce holds hearing on proposed generic, biosimilar user fees, drug shortages, 10am
    • Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, testifies before Senate Banking on housing market, 10am
    • Senate Budget hearing on inequality, mobility, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Greek finance minister heads to Brussels after politicians failed to finalize new austerity measures needed to secure $173b bailout package
  • Southern Co. gets regulator vote on bid for first permission in 30 years to build nuclear reactors in Ga., noon
  • Pepsi releases earnings; watch for commentary on restructuring, strategic shifts following business review
  • President Barack Obama’s advisers have grown more confident about U.S. economic growth this year
  • Bank of England, ECB issue rate decisions; both estimated to keep rates unchanged.
  • Diamond Foods ouster of CEO, CFO, restatement of financial data, imperil Pringles deal with P&G
  • USDA Wasde report, 8:30am
  • BP said to be negotiating with U.S. to settle pollution claims over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill
  • Credit Suisse posts unexpected 4Q loss, hurt by “adverse” markets and reorganization costs
  • California, New  York said to agree to join more than 40 other states in a nationwide settlement that seeks to end abusive bank foreclosure practices

EARNINGS:

    • Precision Drilling (PD CN) 6 a.m., C$0.34
    • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) 6:30 a.m., $0.34
    • Bunge Ltd (BG) 6:30 a.m., $1.53
    • Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 6:30 a.m., $0.36
    • Flowers Foods (FLO) 6:30 a.m., $0.21
    • Teradata (TDC) 6:55 a.m., $0.62
    • Philip Morris International (PM) 6:59 a.m., $1.09
    • BCE (BCE CN) 7 a.m., $0.66
    • CBOE Holdings (CBOE) 7 a.m., $0.35
    • Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN) 7 a.m., $0.28
    • Fortis (FTS CN) 7 a.m., C$0.47
    • International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7 a.m., $0.71
    • Lorillard (LO) 7 a.m., $1.96
    • PepsiCo (PEP) 7 a.m., $1.12
    • Sirius XM (SIRI) 7 a.m., $0.01
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7 a.m., $0.56
    • Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) 7:30 a.m., $0.36
    • Husky Energy (HSE CN) 7:30 a.m., C$0.55
    • Noble Energy (NBL) 7:30 a.m., $1.16
    • Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (OZM) 7:30 a.m., $0.02
    • Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30 a.m., $0.49
    • Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8 a.m., $0.89
    • Manulife Financial (MFC CN) 8:04 a.m., C$(0.10)
    • Canadian Tire Ltd (CTC/A CN) 8:05 a.m., C$1.85
    • Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 10:30 a.m., C$0.82
    • Great-West Lifeco (GWO CN) 12:05 p.m., C$0.50
    • Expedia (EXPE) 4 p.m., $0.52
    • Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01 p.m., $0.36
    • Pitney Bowes (PBI) 4:01 p.m., $0.60
    • XL Group (XL) 4:01 p.m., $0.15
    • Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) 4:02 p.m., $0.11
    • LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:02 p.m., $0.07
    • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:05 p.m., $0.56
    • Republic Services (RSG) 4:05 p.m., $0.45
    • Cameco (CCO CN) Post-Mkt, C$0.40

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hedge Fund Snaps Seven Annual Gains in ‘Ugly Year’: Commodities
  • Oil Rises an Eighth Day in London on Euro Optimism, Cold Snap
  • World Food Prices Rose Most in 11 Months on Oilseeds, Grains
  • Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on China Inflation, Stocks
  • Cocoa Falls After Exporters Agree on Ivorian Rules; Coffee Gains
  • Gold May Gain as Dollar’s Decline Spurs More Demand for Metal
  • Wheat May Fall as Australian Exports Increase; Corn Declines
  • India to Sustain Rice Sales to Iran, Seeking to Boost Trade
  • BP Said to Seek U.S. Settlement of Gulf Spill Pollution Claims
  • Rio Tinto Swings to Second-Half Loss on Aluminum Charge
  • Refinery Closing Threatens Virgin Islands’ Debt, Employment
  • Japan Offers $65 Million in Subsidies to Cut Rare Earth Reliance
  • Europe Coal Loses to South Africa on Renewables: Energy Markets
  • North Dakota Oil Boom Brings Bakken Price Bust: Chart of the Day
  • Gazprom Yields Soar as Tax Plan Spooks Investors: Russia Credit
  • Glencore Price for Xstrata Rises Amid No Vote Threat: Real M&A
  • Rabobank May Boost Global Farmer Funding 20% to Offset Europe

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS


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ASIAN MARKETS


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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team