TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 9, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 30 points or -1.48% downside to 1330 and 0.74% upside to 1360.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 480 (91)
- VOLUME: NYSE 765.35 (4.99%)
- VIX: 18.16 2.89% YTD PERFORMANCE: -22.39%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.40 from 3.12 (-55.13%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 43.69
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
- 10-Year: 2.00 from 1.98
- YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.73
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 6:30am: OPEC monthly crude output report
- 7am: BoE announces interest rate decision; est. 0.50%, unchanged
- 7:45am: ECB announces rate decision, est. 1%, unchanged
- 8:30am: Initial jobless claims, week of Feb. 4, est. 370k (prior 367k)
- 8:30am: WASDE
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Feb. 5 (prior -44.8)
- 10am: Freddie Mac 30-yr mortgage
- 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Dec., est. 0.4% (prior 0.1%)
- 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage
- 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 30-yr bonds
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- President Barack Obama meets with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in Oval Office, TBA
- U.S. Postal Service, which may run out of money this year, reports quarterly results after 8:30am
- Conservative Political Action Conference begins in D.C., with speakers including Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, House Speaker John Boehner, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin
- House, Senate in session:
- House meets at 9am to consider amendments to bill on insider trading
- Senate Judiciary marks up bill on televising Supreme Court proceedings, votes on federal judge nominations, 10am
- House Energy and Commerce holds hearing on proposed generic, biosimilar user fees, drug shortages, 10am
- Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, testifies before Senate Banking on housing market, 10am
- Senate Budget hearing on inequality, mobility, 10am
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Greek finance minister heads to Brussels after politicians failed to finalize new austerity measures needed to secure $173b bailout package
- Southern Co. gets regulator vote on bid for first permission in 30 years to build nuclear reactors in Ga., noon
- Pepsi releases earnings; watch for commentary on restructuring, strategic shifts following business review
- President Barack Obama’s advisers have grown more confident about U.S. economic growth this year
- Bank of England, ECB issue rate decisions; both estimated to keep rates unchanged.
- Diamond Foods ouster of CEO, CFO, restatement of financial data, imperil Pringles deal with P&G
- USDA Wasde report, 8:30am
- BP said to be negotiating with U.S. to settle pollution claims over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill
- Credit Suisse posts unexpected 4Q loss, hurt by “adverse” markets and reorganization costs
- California, New York said to agree to join more than 40 other states in a nationwide settlement that seeks to end abusive bank foreclosure practices
EARNINGS:
- Precision Drilling (PD CN) 6 a.m., C$0.34
- Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) 6:30 a.m., $0.34
- Bunge Ltd (BG) 6:30 a.m., $1.53
- Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) 6:30 a.m., $0.36
- Flowers Foods (FLO) 6:30 a.m., $0.21
- Teradata (TDC) 6:55 a.m., $0.62
- Philip Morris International (PM) 6:59 a.m., $1.09
- BCE (BCE CN) 7 a.m., $0.66
- CBOE Holdings (CBOE) 7 a.m., $0.35
- Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN) 7 a.m., $0.28
- Fortis (FTS CN) 7 a.m., C$0.47
- International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) 7 a.m., $0.71
- Lorillard (LO) 7 a.m., $1.96
- PepsiCo (PEP) 7 a.m., $1.12
- Sirius XM (SIRI) 7 a.m., $0.01
- Thomson Reuters (TRI CN) 7 a.m., $0.56
- Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) 7:30 a.m., $0.36
- Husky Energy (HSE CN) 7:30 a.m., C$0.55
- Noble Energy (NBL) 7:30 a.m., $1.16
- Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (OZM) 7:30 a.m., $0.02
- Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30 a.m., $0.49
- Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) 8 a.m., $0.89
- Manulife Financial (MFC CN) 8:04 a.m., C$(0.10)
- Canadian Tire Ltd (CTC/A CN) 8:05 a.m., C$1.85
- Shoppers Drug Mart (SC CN) 10:30 a.m., C$0.82
- Great-West Lifeco (GWO CN) 12:05 p.m., C$0.50
- Expedia (EXPE) 4 p.m., $0.52
- Nuance Communications (NUAN) 4:01 p.m., $0.36
- Pitney Bowes (PBI) 4:01 p.m., $0.60
- XL Group (XL) 4:01 p.m., $0.15
- Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) 4:02 p.m., $0.11
- LinkedIn (LNKD) 4:02 p.m., $0.07
- Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 4:05 p.m., $0.56
- Republic Services (RSG) 4:05 p.m., $0.45
- Cameco (CCO CN) Post-Mkt, C$0.40
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge Fund Snaps Seven Annual Gains in ‘Ugly Year’: Commodities
- Oil Rises an Eighth Day in London on Euro Optimism, Cold Snap
- World Food Prices Rose Most in 11 Months on Oilseeds, Grains
- Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on China Inflation, Stocks
- Cocoa Falls After Exporters Agree on Ivorian Rules; Coffee Gains
- Gold May Gain as Dollar’s Decline Spurs More Demand for Metal
- Wheat May Fall as Australian Exports Increase; Corn Declines
- India to Sustain Rice Sales to Iran, Seeking to Boost Trade
- BP Said to Seek U.S. Settlement of Gulf Spill Pollution Claims
- Rio Tinto Swings to Second-Half Loss on Aluminum Charge
- Refinery Closing Threatens Virgin Islands’ Debt, Employment
- Japan Offers $65 Million in Subsidies to Cut Rare Earth Reliance
- Europe Coal Loses to South Africa on Renewables: Energy Markets
- North Dakota Oil Boom Brings Bakken Price Bust: Chart of the Day
- Gazprom Yields Soar as Tax Plan Spooks Investors: Russia Credit
- Glencore Price for Xstrata Rises Amid No Vote Threat: Real M&A
- Rabobank May Boost Global Farmer Funding 20% to Offset Europe
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team