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CZR IPO INVESTOR CALL

Second time's a charm?

 

 

CZR's IPO INVESTOR CALL 

 

DEAL HIGHLIGHTS

  • Ticker: CZR
  • Range: $8-$10
  • Offering: 1.8M Shares (100% primary)
  • Deal Size: $16MM
  • Over-allotment: 15% all primary
  • Pro-forma Market Cap: $1.125BN
  • Pricing: February 6th 
  • Apollo/TPG not selling any shares in IPO/ subject to a 270-day lockup
  • Selling primary shares equal to 1.4% of the total will facilitate the listing of 29% of the shares
    • The 1.4% of the shares issued in the IPO and 18.8% of the shares will be immediately tradeable post IPO
    • 8.9% of the share will be subject to a 180-day lockup (Company & 50% of Co-investor shares)
    • All of Paulson's shares (9.9%) will be listed concurrently with the IPO and not subject to lock up


INVESTOR CALL NOTES

  • Going public will allow them to deliver
  • Investment in CZR's will give investors exposure to:
    • Recovery of CZR's existing facilities
    • New CZR's development
    • Expect to get Baltimore license and a casino there in 2013/2014
    • Option on online poker
    • Option on Asia development (If and when new markets get approved and if CZR wins a license in those markets)
  • Launched an amend and extend proposition yesterday, which will extend maturities from 2015 from 2018. Listing of equity itself would help them deliver as well.
  • Core business recovery:
    • What has changed since 2007? 
      • Total of $2BN of investments
        • Added CZR's Palace expansion
        • New Horsheshoe Hammond
        • Planet Hollywood
      • Competitive changes (increases)
      • New projects/ developments
    • Bottom line they think that they can get to $3BN
  • Las Vegas recovery is well underway with positive momentum across all the key metrics
    • CZR's cash room rates troughed at $85/night and was $92 in 2011 and still improving
    • Occupancy troughed at 90% and improved to 96% in 2011
  • Atlantic City has been a very tough market and just reversed 39 months of declines in December.  They are continuing to work on efficiencies there.  Believe that they can get their $1.5BN business to a 20% margin
  • Regional market results have been generally stable to slightly improving.  
  • The Back To Peak slide...yes if you only they had a 40% increase in ADR they could get $200MM of EBITDA in Vegas... IF.... 
  • Anticipate adding $250MM of EBITDA from their pipeline efforts opening from 2012-2014 with little balance sheet impact
  • WSOP & US Online Poker opportunity
    • Have taken advantage of markets where gaming is legal in UK and France. When Poker Stars and Full Tilt were shut down, it benefited them
    • They also acquired a social gaming platform to distribute their brands - Playtika, developer of social gaming applications on Facebook 
    • Slotomania is on Facebook, 4 Russian social networks, iphone and ipad. IGT payed $500MM for Double Down. They have 2x as many users and monitize their users just as well as Double Down. They are launching their platforms on ipad and iphone. Slotomania is one of the top grossing apps across all mobile platforms and Facebook.
    • Launching CZR's casino application within a week (currently in beta testing) and it will linked to CZR's rewards
    • Party.BWIN's stock pop based on the their MGM/BYD announcement boosted their market cap by $600MM and they think that they deserve a similar option value that Party is getting. 
    • While they are confident of the prospect of federally legalized online poker, it is already happening at the state level
  • Real difference between this IPO and last one is that there are two real comps for the value of their options
    • IGT/Double Down for their mobile gaming business
    • Party.BWIN stock move based on their option to enter US
  • Amend and extend underway
    • Did an amend and extend for $1,2BN last year on their term loan
    • This current deal is seeking to extend at least [$2.4BN] of their term loans through 2018 from current 2015 maturities

THE HBM: JOBS, MCD, PEET, SBUX

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Unemployment

 

We will have a more detailed post up on employment data pertaining to the restaurant group later this morning.  Nonfarm payrolls came in at 243k versus 140k consensus.  The unemployment rate came in at 8.3%, below consensus 8.5%.  This is a positive for consumer confidence, since the unemployment rate is the most often cited labor statistic in mainstream media, but there are a lot of moving parts behind the final print. One worth monitoring is the Labor Force Participation Rate.  In January, it fell to 63.7% from 64%.  This may not seem material but, as the second chart below shows, adjusting the LFPR to the ten year average (January ’02 through January ’12) implies a much higher unemployment rate for January.

 

THE HBM: JOBS, MCD, PEET, SBUX - lfpr

 

THE HBM: JOBS, MCD, PEET, SBUX - Urate LFPR adj

 

 

Commodities

 

Coffee prices in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, declined this week as growers sold after holding onto beans in a bid to boost prices, according to sources quoted by Bloomberg.  Prices are declining on speculation that global supplies will improve with large crops in Brazil and Vietnam.

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: JOBS, MCD, PEET, SBUX - subsector

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

PEET: Peet’s coffee was upgraded to Outperform by Baird.

 

MCD: McDonald’s paid a record low on 30-year bonds – just 3.7% - as it tapped the debt market for $750 million in a two part offering.

 

SBUX:  “Starbucks can follow Satan if they want to”, says USA Christian Ministries head Steven Andrew in a statement addressing the company’s support of gay marriage in Washington State.  If Christians unite behind his cause, he predicted, Starbucks would lose 80% of its clientele.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

GMCR: Earnings short squeeze.  High level of short interest in this stock and yesterday was a painful day for the shorts.

 

COSI: The CEO bought stock a couple of days ago.   This stock is up over 27% over the past week.

 

WEN: Gained yesterday after a strong sell off after the Analyst Day. 

 

YUM:  Besides news in the media about the salmonella incident in Oklahoma that media reports are attributing to Taco Bell, there was no news on YUM.

 

CMG: EPS just was not good enough for this priced-for-perfection stock.

 

BAGL: The Chief Marketing Officer left the company.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

 

BWLD: This stock is trading well into earnings next week.  4Q results are likely to come in strong but, in our view, the forward looking commentary needs to bring FY12 expectations lower.

 

KONA:  Management changes are disruptive to operations.

 

THE HBM: JOBS, MCD, PEET, SBUX - stocks

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


WYNN: THE INTERNET? IS THAT THING STILL AROUND?

Sorry to quote Homer Simpson but you know Wynn’s stock is in trouble when Steve starts the call raving about their new website.


 

WYNN is clearly not a hedge fund favorite right now and normally, we’d love to take the other side of that.  But really, what is the positive catalyst?  High short interest and low expectations may limit the downside to pretty much where the stock traded up from yesterday or maybe a little worse.  Q4 was not great but where we go from here is the real question.

 

Last night, WYNN held an uncharacteristically boring conference call.  Where was the political rant?  Where was the unbridled optimism?  Where were the dumb analyst questions?  Oh wait, there were plenty of those.  Anyway, the uninteresting nature of call was probably a preview into the next few years at Wynn.  Without any new projects underway, WYNN will be an operations and cash flow harvesting story.  The stock is probably priced that way too which makes it uninteresting to us, long or short. 

 

Wynn is a terrific operator and a value creator, no question.  Right now, he is a little bit of a victim of his own success in Macau until Wynn Cotai opens.  Wynn Macau/Encore is running close to full capacity now and is likely to continue to lose share and generate subpar and subdued growth in the coming years.  Vegas should have some nice growth, but it’s just not that material to the overall results of the company.  In the meantime, the catalysts are external:  Government approval of Wynn Cotai, potential legalization of gaming in Japan or Korea, and the RFP process in MA.

 

 

Q4 Details:


Wynn reported net revenue of $1.34BN and Adjusted EBITDA of $381MM (post corporate but before stock comp), missing consensus by 1% and 4%, respectively.  Macau missed by 2% despite holding well across both VIP and Mass, while Vegas EBITDA missed by 9%.  After the snoozer of a conference call, we’ll spare you the boring line by line and skip to the more interesting tidbits/non-obvious observations.

 

Macau

  • Hold boosted net revenue by $71-89MM and Adjusted EBITDA by $22-32MM
    • If you assume theoretical hold of 2.85%, the hold benefit to VIP was $69MM on net revenue and $20MM on EBITDA.  Using Wynn’s average hold since opening (ex 4Q11) of 2.94%, this gets you to a hold benefit of $50MM on net revenue and $10MM on EBITDA.
    • Mass also held well at 30.4% vs. the 27.4% TTM average.  We estimate that the incremental 3% of luck helped net revenue and EBITDA to the tune of $21MM and $12MM, respectively.
    • Direct play was 11% and rebates were 95bps or 30% of win
    • Single-digit midget growth as the property hits up against capacity constraints
      • VIP RC: 7%
      • Mass drop: 4%
      • Slot handle: 8%
      • Estimated 14% increase in fixed operating expense

Vegas

  • This is only time, aside from 2008, since opening where 4Q table drop decreased QoQ
  • Slot handle was disappointing which is surprising given the strong reported Strip results
    • Wynn could be losing share to MGM
    • Lower occupancy likely hurt the slot performance
    • Rebates/Casino discounts were 19.7% of gross casino win, compared to 17.3% in 4Q10 and 17.4% in 3Q11
    • Occupancy actually decreased YoY and RevPAR only increased 2.7% and was the lowest since the property opened.  On the positive side, it looks like promotional allowances/ comps decreased $44MM or 30% of net casino win from 32% last year.

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Not Now

This note was originally published at 8am on January 31, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“How soon ‘not now’ becomes never.”

-Martin Luther

 

Don’t worry, I’m not going to go off on the Protestant Reformation of 16thcentury Europe this morning. I’m going to give some much simpler advice re: chasing any asset price higher today – Not Now. Most things will get marked-up into month-end.

 

That’s not to say I didn’t think yesterday at 9:51 AM wasn’t a good time to buy. With the SP500 testing 1301 (down 32 points, or -2.4% from last Thursday morning’s 1333 high), that’s where I bought Energy (XLE), taking my Cash position down from 91% to 85% and taking up my US Equity position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model from 0% to 6%.

 

Some people get all fired-up about this whole TimeStamping thing we do. It’s really nothing to get emotional about. It’s just what we do. We like to make calls and be held accountable to the timing of those calls. We call it the score.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

These German dudes and dudettes have to be right fired-up this morning. In the face of the entire world begging them to bail out the dysfunctional; and after watching the American media chastise them for not being able to do the “right thing” – they just kept saying Not Now to just about everyone who no longer needs Luther’s Latin translation for the word never.

 

How is the economic model of German fiscal conservatism scoring? Here it is, head-to-head, versus Italy:

  1. Germany Unemployment = 6.7% JAN vs 6.8% DEC = 20-year low
  2. Italy Unemployment = 8.9% JAN vs 8.8% DEC = 8-year high

What’s in your wallet?

 

Again and again and again, we’ve tried to remind our audience that the strength of a country is not explicitly reflected by the daily moves of her stock market. Ask the Germans who lived through a 1920s stock market hyper-inflation about that.

 

If you don’t have a policy to fear-monger your citizenry into believing that saving is evil, you might just build a national confidence and pride that reflexively equates to more stable employment and consumption.

 

In the US, we’re getting closer to figuring this out. Or are we? Romney’s monetarily conservative message seems to be picking up some momentum in Florida and, at the same time, it still looks like President Obama can change fiscally.

 

Yes We Can. But will he?

 

Instead of being politically polarized by the debate, I think the world’s vote on this will continue to be on the tape each and every day, ticking, via the sequential momentum in the US Dollar Index.

 

If you haven’t noticed, in the last few weeks, the US Dollar has lost a statistically significant amount of momentum:

  1. US Dollar Index = down -3.1% since its intermediate-term top of $81.53 in mid-January 2012
  2. US Dollar Index = up +8.2% since testing a 40-year low during the thralls of Qe2’s policy to inflate (April 2011)

To be crystal clear on this, the correlation to asset prices between the US Dollar Index and everything else in Global Macro right now is unclear.

 

In sharp contrast to April 2011, when the inverse correlation between US stocks and the USD was tracking in the -0.8-0.9 range, today’s 120-day correlation is actually a positive +0.44 and US Equity Volatility (VIX) has an inverse correlation to USD of -0.59.

 

In other words, before The Bernank Tax last week, the Fed was out of the way and we saw a stabilization/strengthening of the US Dollar over the course of the last 3-6 months that:

 

      A) firmed up US Confidence, Employment, and Consumption (71% of GDP)

      B) started to tone down one of the biggest risks to returns in any business – expected price volatility

 

American Progress by simply having Bernanke and Geithner out of the way – fancy that. Americans were/are getting it done without the heavy hand of government help. No matter what your politics, that’s just good.

 

What would not be good for the US economy or stock market (again, two very different things) would be a breakdown in the US Dollar Index of $78.03 intermediate-term TREND support and a breakout in US Equity Volatility (VIX) above TRADE line resistance of 20.86. That would really fire up the price of oil. Copper is already up +12.5% YTD!

 

Not Good. Not Now.

 

As you can see in the long-term chart of US Stocks (SPX) vs Equity Volatility (VIX):

  1. The SP500 is making a series of lower long-term highs
  2. The VIX is making a series of higher long-term lows

The charts look Japanese because the long-term Bush/Obama Keynesian Policies have been. That chart also summarizes the societal American Zeitgeist about markets and the central planners infecting them.

 

Is President Obama prepared to tell Ben Bernanke to get out of the way and let American Savers earn a rate of return on their fixed incomes? Not Now. While hope is not a risk management process, I can only pray that doesn’t mean never.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), EUR/USD, US Dollar Index, German DAX, and the SP500 are now $1691-1751, $110.61-111.89, $1.30-1.32, $78.70-79.75, 6456-6503, and 1306-1324, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Not Now - Chart of the Day

 

Not Now - Virtual Portfolio


THE M3: MBS REFI; HK-MACAU-ZHUHAI BRIDGE

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 3, 2012

 

 

MARINA BAY SANDS SEEKS S$4.5BN REFI IFR Asia

Marina Bay Sands is in discussions with existing lenders and relationship banks for a S$4.5bn (US$3.6bn) five- to six-year loan.  Proceeds will be used to refinance a facility signed in February 2008.

 

MORE DELAYS? The Standard

The much-delayed HK-Macau-Zhuhai bridge may be further delayed as tenders for some sections of the bridge have come in too high, forcing the government to retender the work.  Construction was initially set to begin early this year.  The retender procedure could start as early as today and is expected to be completed by the end of next month.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 3, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 10 points or -0.57% downside to 1318 and 0.19% upside to 1328. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 410 (-1563) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 810.39 (-9.21%)
  • VIX:  17.98 -3.07% YTD PERFORMANCE: -23.16%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.99 from 1.68 (18.45%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 45.43
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.08%
  • 10-Year: 1.82 from 1.82
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.60 from 1.60

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan., est. 140k (prior 200k)
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, Jan., est. 8.5% (prior 8.5%)
  • 8:30am: Establishment Employment Survey Annual Revisions
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Comp, Jan., est. 53.2 (prior revised 53.0)
  • 10am: Factory Orders, Dec., est. 1.5% (prior 1.8%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama delivers remarks on economy in Arlington, Va.
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Ways and Means Cmte. marks up H.R.3865, the American Energy and Infrastructure Jobs Financing Act of 2012, 9am
    • Joint Economic Committee holds hearing on unemployment report, with John Galvin of Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9:30am
    • House Rules Committee meets to formulate rule on H.R.1734, the Civilian Property Realignment Act, 9:30am
    • House Science, Space and Technology subcommittee holds hearing on science quality at EPA, 10am
    • House Energy and Commerce panel holds hearing on Keystone XL Pipeline project, with testimony from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Land Management officials, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Employers probably added 140k jobs in Jan. after a 200k-plus gain in Dec., economists est.; jobless rate may have held at almost 3-yr low of 8.5%
  • Blackstone Group said to be studying leveraged buyout of Brocade Communications
  • Panasonic widened annual loss forecast to record $10.2b
  • Wall Street’s biggest lobbying group is split over a proposed settlement of state and federal foreclosure probes
  • Greece’s rescue plan includes a loss of more than 70% for bondholders in voluntary exchange and loans likely to exceed EU130b now on the table
  • European retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, led by Germany and France
  • Hutchison Whampoa agreed to buy Orange Austria from France Telecom and Mid Europa Partners; deal valued at EU1.3b
  • Nevada holds Republican presidential caucuses tomorrow
  • No IPOs expected to price today

EARNINGS:

    • Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB) 6 a.m., $0.67
    • Macerich (MAC) 6 a.m., $0.87
    • Aon (AON) 6:30 a.m., $0.96
    • Simon Property Group (SPG) 7 a.m., $1.90
    • Beam (BEAM) 7:06 a.m., $0.67
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) 7:30 a.m., $0.34
    • Health Net (HNT) 7:30 a.m., $0.89
    • Domtar (UFS) 7:30 a.m., $2.24
    • Estee Lauder Cos (EL) 7:30 a.m., $1.01
    • Spectra Energy (SEP) 8 a.m., $0.38
    • Clorox (CLX) 8:30 a.m., $0.69
    • Brown & Brown (BRO) Post-Mkt, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Bets on Raw Materials Expanding Fastest Since 2006: Commodities         
  • Gold May Extend Gains From Two-Month High on Europe Debt Concern              
  • Brazil Sugar Crop Seen Failing to Compensate for Indian Drop
  • Coffee Exports From Vietnam May Climb in February on Weather
  • India May Make Enough Sugar to Meet Demand, Averting Imports         
  • Oil Near Six-Week Low Before Jobs Report; Brent Premium Widens       
  • Copper May Gain Before Figures Showing U.S. Employment Advanced 
  • Wheat Gains as Lack of Snow Cover Puts European Plants at Risk
  • Rubber Gains, Paring First Loss in Five Weeks, as Oil Recovers
  • Contango Widest Since October in Cushing Deluge: Energy Markets       
  • Glencore-Xstrata Bankers May Reap Up to $140 Million for Advice           
  • Saudis Set to Price Arab Heavy to Tap Fuel Oil Boom, Survey Says             
  • Ship Rates’ 63% Collapse Will Snap Share Rally: Chart of the Day
  • Gold May Extend Gains From Two-Month High 
  • Copper Stockpiles in Shanghai Surge to 21-Month High
  • Soybean Traders Most Bullish This Year on South American Weather      
  • Coffee Rebounds as Vietnam Sales May Slow in March; Cocoa Gains

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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