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Self-Control

This note was originally published at 8am on January 30, 2012. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“The conclusion is straightforward: self-control requires attention and effort.”

-Daniel Kahneman

 

That’s a very simple quote from a very important chapter in “Thinking, Fast and Slow” titled The Lazy Controller. I personally have a lot of work to do on this front. As an athlete, I was much better at this than I am as an investor – control what you can control.

 

It required some attention and effort to sell into the stock and commodity market inflations inspired by The Bernank Tax last week. With the S&P futures trading at 1305 this morning, US stocks are down over -2% from Thursday morning’s intraday 2012 high of 1333.

 

With China coming back from the holiday closing down -1.5% overnight, it looks like I should have sold that too (I sold everything else). The Chinese do not appreciate US policies to inflate because food and energy inflation slows Chinese growth.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I make a lot of mistakes. The biggest ones tend to occur when I either get influenced by someone else’s process and/or when I don’t let the market stop me out of my own.

 

Thinking fast about the immediate-term while thinking slow about the long-term is the holy grail of being at what Kahneman calls “cognitive ease.” I can’t work any harder – so for me, at this stage of my career, my goal is to work smarter.

 

I think Kahneman nails my own issues to the boards in saying that, sometimes, “too much concern about how well one is doing in a task sometimes disrupts performance by loading short-term memory with pointless anxious thoughts.” (page 41)

 

But, most of the time, that’s our over-supplied profession’s short-term cross to bear more than it is my own – and we can turn that regressive energy into positive P&L by coming to the most straightforward conclusion, fast.

 

As a reminder, our primary conclusions about Big Government Interventions in markets for the last 4 years has been:

 

1.       They Shorten Economic Cycles

2.       They Amplify Market Volatility

 

This is the #1 reason why I am such a bull on stabilizing/strengthening the #1 factor in my Global Macro Model that drives short-termism in global market prices/volatilities – the US Dollar Index.

 

Last week’s price action doesn’t lie, Keynesian policy makers do. With the US Dollar down -1.6% week-over-week, here’s what the big stuff did:

  1. CRB Index (18 commodities) Inflation = straight up +1.6%
  2. US Stocks = flat (Dow down -0.5%; SP500 up +0.1%)
  3. US Treasuries = 10-year yields dropped -6.4% to 1.89%

Why?

 

1.       Inflation Expectations were rising

2.       Growth Expectations were falling

 

And, again, that’s how my risk management model rolls:

  1. Policy drives currency
  2. Currency debauchery drives inflation expectations
  3. Inflation expectations drive growth (and margin) expectations

If you go back and analyze every single big investment mistake I have made in the last 13 years (I have), unless there’s something like a take-out in one of my short positions (I was short Reebok when Adidas bought them), almost all of the time I was long something where Growth Slowed and Margins Compressed.

 

That’s why I think, fast and slow, about Countries/Economies this way. Ultimately, on the margins of Growth and Inflation, they act like companies.

 

I know there’s a lot of controversy around my macro views. I know there’s a lot of emotion in what we do. I know I should have been long Gold last week. I know what I know.

 

What I don’t know is what really matters to me. That’s why I need the Self-Control to Embrace Uncertainty and let the market tell me what to do next.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), EUR/USD, Shanghai Composite, German DAX, and the SP500 are now $1682-1739, $110.12-112.06, $1.29-1.31, 2221-2351, 6440-6503, and 1297-1326, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Self-Control - Chart of the Day

 

Self-Control - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 2, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.54% downside to 1317 and 0.14% upside to 1326. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1973 (1456) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 892.64 (-13.69%)
  • VIX:  18.55 -4.58% YTD PERFORMANCE: -20.73%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.68 from 1.56 (7.69%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

TREASURIES – if you only bet with the bond market for the last year on its implied growth slowing/accelerating signals, you’d have not been sucked into any of the lower-highs in US Equities (FEB 2011, APR 2011, JAN 2012). We bought the long-bond back yesterday as the 10yr yield looks like it wants to make lower-lows for the YTD.

  • TED SPREAD: 48.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
  • 10-Year: 1.83 from 1.83
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.61 from 1.60

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), Jan.
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity (4Q P), est. 0.8% (prior 2.3%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Jan. 28, est. 370k (prior 377k)
  • 9am: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Jan. 29
  • 10am: Fed’s Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee
  • 7:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama attends 60th National Prayer Breakfast, 7:30am
  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on U.S. economy before House Budget Cmte., 10am
  • Fannie Mae Chief Economist Douglas Duncan gives outlook for housing market to National Economists Club, noon
  • House transportation committee considers 5-yr, $260b highway construction bill
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Energy and Commerce subcommittee receives report of blue-ribbon commission on America’s nuclear future, 9:30am (Will hear from FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg on reauthorization of the prescription drug user fee act) 10am
    • House-Senate payroll tax cut conference committee meets, 10am
    • House Budget Committee hears from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf on the economic outlook, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • ECB is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until investors and the govt. have agreed to a deal, economists said
  • U.S. retailers inc. Macy’s, Gap report Jan. comp sales; Retail Metrics est. 2% gain, would be weakest monthly sales growth since Oct. 2010
  • Glencore offered to buy outstanding $35b stake Xstrata that it doesn’t already own
  • Facebook filed to raise $5b in largest Internet IPO on record
  • IPO may value Mark Zuckerberg’s stake at $28.4b
  • MF Global risk chief switch stalled euro debt cut by 6 mos.
  • Ex-Credit Suisse CDO chief charged in scheme to boost bonuses
  • Deutsche Bank reported 76% drop in 4Q profit as sovereign debt crisis curbed trading
  • Sony Corp. more than doubled its annual loss forecast to $2.9b
  • AstraZeneca to cut 7,300 jobs
  • Deadline for states whether to join a proposed nationwide foreclosure settlement with banks to Feb. 6 from Feb. 3, Iowa’s Attorney General said

EARNINGS:

    • Cigna (CI) 6 a.m., $1.19
    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6 a.m., $0.99
    • Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) 6 a.m., $0.57
    • Dow Chemical Co/The (DOW) 6:30 a.m., $0.31
    • PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30 a.m., $0.07
    • Roper Industries (ROP) 6:30 a.m., $1.21
    • Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30 a.m., $0.49
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) 7 a.m., $0.08
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) 7 a.m., $0.76
    • CME Group (CME) 7 a.m., $3.64
    • International Paper Co (IP) 7 a.m., $0.61
    • Merck & Co (MRK) 7 a.m., $0.95
    • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7 a.m., $1.30
    • Snap-on (SNA) 7 a.m., $1.18
    • Viacom (VIAB) 7 a.m., $1.05
    • Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7 a.m., $0.47
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 7 a.m., $0.30
    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7 a.m., $1.49
    • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7:04 a.m., $1.39
    • Goodrich (GR) 7:25 a.m., $1.57
    • Cummins (CMI) 7:30 a.m., $2.24
    • Sara Lee (SLE) 7:30 a.m., $0.25
    • TECO Energy (TE) 7:30 a.m., $0.28
    • Ryder System (R) 7:55 a.m., $0.97
    • Kellogg Co (K) 8 a.m., $0.62
    • Mastercard (MA) 8 a.m., $3.91
    • Cameron International (CAM) 8:15 a.m., $0.76
    • Blackstone Group (BX) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
    • New York Times (NYT) 8:30 a.m., $0.42
    • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) 8:32 a.m., $0.16
    • Allergan (AGN) 9 a.m., $1.00
    • CareFusion (CFN) 4 p.m., $0.44
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4 p.m., $0.59
    • Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4 p.m., $0.75
    • Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) 4 p.m., $1.29
    • Trimble Navigation Ltd (TRMB) 4 p.m., $0.48
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4 p.m., $0.72
    • Fiserv (FISV) 4:01 p.m., $1.27
    • Sunoco (SUN) 4:01 p.m., $(0.29)
    • Stericycle (SRCL) 4:02 p.m., $0.74
    • Novellus Systems (NVLS) 4:04 p.m., $0.45
    • Con-way (CNW) 4:05 p.m., $0.36
    • Gilead Sciences (GILD) 4:05 p.m., $1.05
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
    • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) 4:05 p.m., $0.23
    • Genworth MI Canada (MIC CN) 4:07 p.m., $0.78
    • Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:10 p.m., $0.19
    • Validus Holdings Ltd (VR) 4:15 p.m., $0.78

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – the Doctor finally breaking its most immediate-term price momentum level of support of $3.83/lb this morning at the same time that Singaporean Stocks back off and moved red into the close. Stealth signals, but they’re leading ones that matter in our model. Copper’s long-term TAIL of 3.98/lb resistance intact – lower-highs.

  • Copper Falls on Signals Demand May Be Poised to Slow in China
  • Oil Falls to Six-Week Low as Stockpiles Rise, Fuel Demand Slips
  • Gold May Advance as European Debt Crisis Concerns Spur Demand
  • Glencore Makes Approach for Remaining $35 Billion Xstrata Stake
  • Colombia Drug Lords’ Cattle Theft Rob Rally Benefit: Commodities
  • Wheat Falls as Rain in U.S. Boosts Crop Prospects; Corn Drops
  • Coffee Falls for Sixth Session on Ample Supplies; Sugar Retreats
  • North Sea Oil Exports to Asia at 8-Year High: Energy Markets
  • Impala Fires 17,200 Workers at World’s Biggest Platinum Mine
  • Kinder Morgan Lapping Enbridge in Canadian Pipeline Race: Energy
  • Rail Bottlenecks Thwart India Efforts to End Blackouts: Freight
  • YPF Nationalization Concern Spurs Bond Plunge: Argentina Credit
  • Emerging Nations’ Buying to Drive Gold to Record, JPMorgan Says
  • Gold at Eight-Week High on Output, Dollar
  • Shell to Boost Dividend for First Time Since 2009 on Projects
  • EU Biofuels Targets to Cost Consumers $166 Billion, Study Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – all of the high-frequency economic data (inflation accel, growth decel) looks primed to slow in FEB as both the Shanghai Comp (+2% last night) and the Hang Seng (+12.5% YTD!) move to immediate-term TRADE overbought signals. Plenty of Johnny come lately pundits, who we didn’t hear a peep from when we bought China in DEC, going bullish.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 



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Feeling Certain

“You know far less about yourself than you feel you do.”

-Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow)

 

Since last Thursday, when I made the call to go to 91% Cash (selling my US Dollar and US Equity positions down to 0%), I’ve re-invested 12% of that Cash (on red) in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model, dropping my Cash position back down to 79%.

 

After I write something like that, you should feel something. ‘Who is this guy? That’s not what I do? I love this guy. He can’t do that. I think he played hockey, etc.’

 

I don’t know what you are feeling right now. All I know is that the more I think I know about risk management, the less I know. As a result, the best path forward is to Embrace Uncertainty, keep moving, and banging out the early morning reps.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

People on Old Wall Street are funny. Yesterday, at Bloomberg’s China Conference, our rising star Asia analyst, Darius Dale, commented “this is really weird – I just spent the whole day listening to American investors tell me everything that they know about China.”

 

Where were the people from China?

 

I don’t know. What I do know is that there are highly intelligent people in this business that tend to think they know a lot more about what they don’t know than they actually do.

 

This, of course, isn’t new. In Chapter 4 of “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, The Associative Machine, Kahneman takes a step back to remind us that David Hume boiled this down to 3 principles of associative thinking in 1748: “resemblance, contiguity in time and place, and causality.” (page 52)

 

In other words, since most Perma-Bulls have been blown up by bubbles in the last 4 years, China must be a bubble. It resembles a bubble, right? We’re all here at the China Conference telling one another it’s a bubble, right? And notwithstanding any correlation math, we can all agree that credit bubbles cause bubbles, right?

 

Right, right.

 

So, after Gary Shilling’s consensus headline coming out of the Bloomberg Conference was “China Headed for Hard Landing”, Chinese stocks closed up another +2% last night (we’re up +16% on our CAF position since buying it on December 29th, 2011) and the Hang Seng moved to +12.5% YTD!

 

I’m Feeling Certain now that something hard landed somewhere last night, on a Chinese short sellers head.

 

Does that mean we run out and buy more China this morning? Of course not. It’s just a simple reminder that if some US centric investors don’t know what they don’t know about their own Macro market moves, how on God’s good earth do investors trust that they can pin the tail on the donkey on a 12 hour plane ride from Newark?

 

Back to our positioning in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model – here it is as of last night’s US market close:

  1. Cash = 79%
  2. International Equities = 9% (China – CAF)
  3. Fixed Income = 6% (Long-term Treasuries – TLT)
  4. US Equities = 6% (Energy – XLE)
  5. Commodities = 0%
  6. International FX = 0%

Feeling Certain about any of these asset allocations or Hedgeye Porfolio  LONG/SHORT positions we take is very hard to do. Feeling Certain that you can flip a switch from expecting Global Growth Acceleration to Deceleration in February is even harder to do.

 

With hindsight being crystal clear, the only thing I am certain about is how my model has worked over the last 4 years:

  1. When Inflation Expectations start to rise, people confuse commodity and stock market inflations with real-growth
  2. As real Growth Expectations start to fall, Gold, Treasuries, and Volatility start to rise
  3. As inflation expectations rise and growth expectations fall, confusion in markets starts to breed contempt

Confusion is as confusion does. The US stock market went down for 4 straight days after we made the move to 91% Cash last Thursday. After 1 up day in the last 5, the Perma-Bulls are back. But are they? How can you be perma bullish or bearish about anything after the last decade of getting paid to feel certain about everything?

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), Copper, EUR/USD, Shanghai Composite, and the SP500 are now $1, $110.68-111.89, $3.75-3.83, $1.30-1.32, 2, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Feeling Certain - Chart of the Day

 

Feeling Certain - Virtual Portfolio


CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH

Chipotle put up an impressive top line but missed 4Q11 EPS.  As we wrote last night, the stock needed perfection to keep the upward momentum going. 

 

Chipotle posted comparable restaurant sales of +11.1% for the fourth quarter along with EPS of $1.81 or 23.1% above 4Q10.  The Street was looking for $1.89 and the stock traded down immediately after the numbers hit the tape.

Below we go through some of our thoughts on the quarter.

 

Revenue

 

Chipotle’s top-line remains impressive although it is worth noting that January comps were approximated to be running at 10.1% by management.  A 10.1% 1Q comparable restaurant sales number would represent the first slow down, on a two-year average basis, in comps since 4Q09. 

 

What impressed us about the 11.1% number, albeit helped by 1% from favorable weather versus 4Q10, was that price accounted for 4.9% and traffic made up the remainder.  Despite taking price well in excess of Food Away from Home CPI, traffic still contributed more than price to the comp.

 

CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH - cmg pod1

 

CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH - cmg comp detail

 

CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH - cmg cpi

 

 

Margins

 

Restaurant operating margins grew year-over-year in the fourth quarter as a result of positive sales leverage.  This was offset primarily by food inflation of 9% for the quarter.  As a percentage of sales, food costs did improve sequentially from the third quarter by 90 basis points to 32%.  This was aided by the company shifting from expensive California avocados to avocados harvested from Chile and Mexico.  Food inflation in 2012 is expected to be in the mid-single digit range thanks to some more reasonable avocado, dairy and produce costs.  Beef, chicken, and beans will offset that impact, however, with beef prices in particular expected to gain significantly. 

 

CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH - cmg pod2

 

 

Store Growth, Outlook, and Returns

 

With profit margins still strong and the company generating plenty of cash, we are not sounding any alarms for CMG here.  The market is a discounting mechanism and, if results continue to disappoint it would mean continued price losses, we are going to remain neutral on this name until we gain conviction around a catalyst.  The company grew its unit base 13% year-over-year in 2011.

 

Some comments on outlook:

  • Unit openings in 2012 are expected to be between 155-165, which would imply 13% total unit base growth
  • This growth is being sustained by strong real estate pipeline and increase mix of A-model locations (roughly 30% ’12 openings to be A-model format)
  • Planning on opening a second ShopHouse restaurant in Washington D.C. later in ’12
  • In London, two restaurants (in addition to the two currently open there) are under construction.  The first Paris restaurant is opening in the spring
  • The company is raising price roughly 1% in the Pacific region
  • The board authorized $100m additional share repurchase program

 

As long as the company is growing successfully, and it has earned the right to grow, we do not expect an abrupt downturn in the stock price.  The chart below, illustrating the Return On Incremental Invested Capital, shows how the CMG growth engine has driven the stock higher over the last few years.   While less-than-perfect results will lead to declines of the order we saw in after-hours trading following earnings, the rich multiple is likely safe as long as the company can continue to drive strong margins and returns.

 

CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH - cmg pod3

 

CMG: GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH - CMG ROIIC

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


LVS 4Q CONF CALL NOTES

In-line quarter with a big boost from luck in Singapore

 

 

CONF NOTES

  • LVS's January Macau total market share: 19.7%
  • 3 growth segments in Macau:
    • Transportation/infrastructure
    • Hotel rooms, through Sands Cotai Central 
    • Chinese urban population
  • Asia opportunities: Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam
  • 10th straight sequential gain in EBITDA
  • Selling of LVS's mall operations would erase all debt 
  • Sands Bethlehem:
    • Retail mall grand opening will be Feb 15
    • New meeting rooms will be completed by March 1

Q & A

  • MBS
    • 2011 rolling moving average hold was 2.85%
    • 4Q Normalized EBITDA: $45-50MM benefit
    • 4Q Normalized EBITDA margin: middle of 50-55%; mix was not as favorable as previous Qs and the property also had higher bad debt expense.
    • Premium direct is very concentrated which will create volatility but they are still growing
    • Mass: varies from $1.6MM per day to $4.6MM per day; can get to $5MM per day; 
    • FX was 'stable': $1.21-$1.30 Singapore $; doesn't have a significant impact
    • 80% foreigners
    • Talking to government about getting more hotel rooms due to high occupancy rate
    • Receivable: $650MM
      • Reserve: 18%
      • Normal reserve: Approximate 3-7% of win; for Q4, it was 10%. On an annual basis, it was 6%.
  • Macau
    • Venetian Macau high Q4 margin:
      • Margin was not 'out of the ordinary' and 'is sustainable'
      • Still haven't seen much junket movement there
      • Mass/ETGs will continue to dominate performance there
    • Four Seasons Q4 normalized EBITDA for low hold impact: +$7 or 8MM
  • Las Vegas had a "huge December"
  • Still see upward momentum in Macau and Singapore
  • Dividend will cost ~$800MM a year; stock buyback will cost 'many billions of $s'--that kind of money would be better suited for Asian development/investment
  • "We are in a class by ourselves" and therefore deserve a premium multiple
  • No timing for a potential sale of the Grand Canal Shoppes in Venetian Macau.  Many of their tenants are paying % rents. Temptation is not to sell.  If they are going to sell, it they won't do it for at least two years, when and if growth begins to level off.  Look at the opportunity as a "secret savings account."
  • They think that there is more opportunity to better yield manage their table real estate in Macau and so you may see further investment in that area in 2012
  • They have applied to the government for the development of Site 3 for a 4,000 room development with another mass market casino and separate tower for VIP play.
  • Industry underappreciates the growth potential of Sands Cotai Central - they have a Mountain and Polynesian themed casino
  • They believe that the junkets have an incredible opportunity at the Venetian.  Venetian Macau will continue to grow and grow.
  • How profitable is their non-gaming revenue at Singapore?
    • Margins on F&B - 30%
    • Margins on rooms - 83%
  • Costs continue to grow in Macau and Singapore because of inflation but revenues are also growing so they can maintain margins
  • Think that Sands China board would approve the same dividend that they gave last year in their next meeting. The dividend is intended to be a semi-annual steady dividend
  • High hold doesn't depress RC.  So that's not why their RC was low at MBS. 
  • Sites 5 & 6 - what's left under the table cap and where will the tables come from?
    • Will move tables between Mass and VIP and between properties based on demand
    • They can keep moving around their tables
    • Goal is to yield manage their tables between all their properties
  • If and when they do Site 3, they will get more tables
  • Are the junkets in Macau having any collection issues?
    • No issues on their junket or direct business
  • Why is their slot business outperforming?
    • Believe that they have the best people yield managing their floor
    • Having lots of rooms is an incredible advantage for them 
    • Lots of non-gaming amenities to drive traffic
  • Sands Cotai - which pieces are expected to come out of the box faster?
    • All of their VIP rooms are sold out in Sands Central  - so that will ramp up quickly
    • VIP should start faster, Mass will take a little time to ramp
  • How has the slot floor changed over the last 6 months?
    • Radical and consistent changes all the time
  • Singapore Grand Ballroom space is sold out for 2012

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM RELEASE

  • The strong cash flow, liquidity and financial position of the company have allowed us to declare a recurring annual dividend. The Las Vegas Sands board of directors declared yesterday an annual dividend of $1.00 per common share to be paid quarterly, with the initial payment to be made on March 30, 2012 to shareholders of record on March 20, 2012.
  • Sands Cotai Central, the first phase of which will open approximately eight weeks from today.
  • Marina Bay Sands produced a record $426.9 million of adjusted property EBITDA during the quarter and an EBITDA margin of 52.9%.
  • Vegas: 
    • Table game drop was up 14.9% 
    • 91% of our occupied rooms during the quarter were sold to cash-paying customers, compared to 82% in the fourth quarter of 2010.
    • REVPAR up 13%
  • Cash: $3.9BN ($7.1MM restricted cash)
  • Debt:$10.03BN
    • Total principal payments in 2012 and 2013, which principally relate to our Singapore Credit Facility, are approximately $455.8 million and $530.0 million, respectively.
  • Capex: $420.9MM, including construction and development activities of $308.0MM in Macao, $73.1MM at Marina Bay Sands, $30.1MM in Las Vegas and $9.7MM at Sands Bethlehem.

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