THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – February 2, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.54% downside to 1317 and 0.14% upside to 1326. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 


EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1973 (1456) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 892.64 (-13.69%)
  • VIX:  18.55 -4.58% YTD PERFORMANCE: -20.73%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.68 from 1.56 (7.69%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

TREASURIES – if you only bet with the bond market for the last year on its implied growth slowing/accelerating signals, you’d have not been sucked into any of the lower-highs in US Equities (FEB 2011, APR 2011, JAN 2012). We bought the long-bond back yesterday as the 10yr yield looks like it wants to make lower-lows for the YTD.

  • TED SPREAD: 48.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
  • 10-Year: 1.83 from 1.83
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.61 from 1.60

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts (Y/y), Jan.
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity (4Q P), est. 0.8% (prior 2.3%)
  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, wk of Jan. 28, est. 370k (prior 377k)
  • 9am: Fed’s Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week of Jan. 29
  • 10am: Fed’s Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee
  • 7:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas

GOVERNMENT:

  • President Obama attends 60th National Prayer Breakfast, 7:30am
  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on U.S. economy before House Budget Cmte., 10am
  • Fannie Mae Chief Economist Douglas Duncan gives outlook for housing market to National Economists Club, noon
  • House transportation committee considers 5-yr, $260b highway construction bill
  • House, Senate in session:
    • House Energy and Commerce subcommittee receives report of blue-ribbon commission on America’s nuclear future, 9:30am (Will hear from FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg on reauthorization of the prescription drug user fee act) 10am
    • House-Senate payroll tax cut conference committee meets, 10am
    • House Budget Committee hears from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf on the economic outlook, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • ECB is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until investors and the govt. have agreed to a deal, economists said
  • U.S. retailers inc. Macy’s, Gap report Jan. comp sales; Retail Metrics est. 2% gain, would be weakest monthly sales growth since Oct. 2010
  • Glencore offered to buy outstanding $35b stake Xstrata that it doesn’t already own
  • Facebook filed to raise $5b in largest Internet IPO on record
  • IPO may value Mark Zuckerberg’s stake at $28.4b
  • MF Global risk chief switch stalled euro debt cut by 6 mos.
  • Ex-Credit Suisse CDO chief charged in scheme to boost bonuses
  • Deutsche Bank reported 76% drop in 4Q profit as sovereign debt crisis curbed trading
  • Sony Corp. more than doubled its annual loss forecast to $2.9b
  • AstraZeneca to cut 7,300 jobs
  • Deadline for states whether to join a proposed nationwide foreclosure settlement with banks to Feb. 6 from Feb. 3, Iowa’s Attorney General said

EARNINGS:

    • Cigna (CI) 6 a.m., $1.19
    • Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) 6 a.m., $0.99
    • Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT) 6 a.m., $0.57
    • Dow Chemical Co/The (DOW) 6:30 a.m., $0.31
    • PulteGroup (PHM) 6:30 a.m., $0.07
    • Roper Industries (ROP) 6:30 a.m., $1.21
    • Spectra Energy (SE) 6:30 a.m., $0.49
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) 7 a.m., $0.08
    • Cardinal Health (CAH) 7 a.m., $0.76
    • CME Group (CME) 7 a.m., $3.64
    • International Paper Co (IP) 7 a.m., $0.61
    • Merck & Co (MRK) 7 a.m., $0.95
    • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 7 a.m., $1.30
    • Snap-on (SNA) 7 a.m., $1.18
    • Viacom (VIAB) 7 a.m., $1.05
    • Wisconsin Energy (WEC) 7 a.m., $0.47
    • Xcel Energy (XEL) 7 a.m., $0.30
    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7 a.m., $1.49
    • Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) 7:04 a.m., $1.39
    • Goodrich (GR) 7:25 a.m., $1.57
    • Cummins (CMI) 7:30 a.m., $2.24
    • Sara Lee (SLE) 7:30 a.m., $0.25
    • TECO Energy (TE) 7:30 a.m., $0.28
    • Ryder System (R) 7:55 a.m., $0.97
    • Kellogg Co (K) 8 a.m., $0.62
    • Mastercard (MA) 8 a.m., $3.91
    • Cameron International (CAM) 8:15 a.m., $0.76
    • Blackstone Group (BX) 8:30 a.m., $0.40
    • New York Times (NYT) 8:30 a.m., $0.42
    • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) 8:32 a.m., $0.16
    • Allergan (AGN) 9 a.m., $1.00
    • CareFusion (CFN) 4 p.m., $0.44
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) 4 p.m., $0.59
    • Principal Financial Group (PFG) 4 p.m., $0.75
    • Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) 4 p.m., $1.29
    • Trimble Navigation Ltd (TRMB) 4 p.m., $0.48
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) 4 p.m., $0.72
    • Fiserv (FISV) 4:01 p.m., $1.27
    • Sunoco (SUN) 4:01 p.m., $(0.29)
    • Stericycle (SRCL) 4:02 p.m., $0.74
    • Novellus Systems (NVLS) 4:04 p.m., $0.45
    • Con-way (CNW) 4:05 p.m., $0.36
    • Gilead Sciences (GILD) 4:05 p.m., $1.05
    • PerkinElmer (PKI) 4:05 p.m., $0.51
    • Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) 4:05 p.m., $0.23
    • Genworth MI Canada (MIC CN) 4:07 p.m., $0.78
    • Genworth Financial (GNW) 4:10 p.m., $0.19
    • Validus Holdings Ltd (VR) 4:15 p.m., $0.78

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – the Doctor finally breaking its most immediate-term price momentum level of support of $3.83/lb this morning at the same time that Singaporean Stocks back off and moved red into the close. Stealth signals, but they’re leading ones that matter in our model. Copper’s long-term TAIL of 3.98/lb resistance intact – lower-highs.

  • Copper Falls on Signals Demand May Be Poised to Slow in China
  • Oil Falls to Six-Week Low as Stockpiles Rise, Fuel Demand Slips
  • Gold May Advance as European Debt Crisis Concerns Spur Demand
  • Glencore Makes Approach for Remaining $35 Billion Xstrata Stake
  • Colombia Drug Lords’ Cattle Theft Rob Rally Benefit: Commodities
  • Wheat Falls as Rain in U.S. Boosts Crop Prospects; Corn Drops
  • Coffee Falls for Sixth Session on Ample Supplies; Sugar Retreats
  • North Sea Oil Exports to Asia at 8-Year High: Energy Markets
  • Impala Fires 17,200 Workers at World’s Biggest Platinum Mine
  • Kinder Morgan Lapping Enbridge in Canadian Pipeline Race: Energy
  • Rail Bottlenecks Thwart India Efforts to End Blackouts: Freight
  • YPF Nationalization Concern Spurs Bond Plunge: Argentina Credit
  • Emerging Nations’ Buying to Drive Gold to Record, JPMorgan Says
  • Gold at Eight-Week High on Output, Dollar
  • Shell to Boost Dividend for First Time Since 2009 on Projects
  • EU Biofuels Targets to Cost Consumers $166 Billion, Study Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


CHINA – all of the high-frequency economic data (inflation accel, growth decel) looks primed to slow in FEB as both the Shanghai Comp (+2% last night) and the Hang Seng (+12.5% YTD!) move to immediate-term TRADE overbought signals. Plenty of Johnny come lately pundits, who we didn’t hear a peep from when we bought China in DEC, going bullish.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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