Keith back into WMT, one of the few retailers that will remain unscathed through the upcoming JCP-fueled apparel retail mele, to the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio.
We’re below the Street for Q4 but PNK has underperformed and light Louisiana numbers are well-known.
After making or beating expectations for two years, PNK could report 4Q11 results below expectations. We are projecting net revenue of $274MM and adjusted EBITDA of $58.7MM, which is 4% below the Street. PNK could underperform over the near-term as questionable ROI on new projects and soft revenues could continue to provide an overhang on the stock. However, the relative weakness of the company’s Q4 report is probably well-known at this point.
While the Q4 is always seasonally weaker than Q3, some properties underperformed this quarter. L’Auberge gaming revenues were only up 4% YoY after an 11% rise in 3Q. Margin estimates seem a bit aggressive to us. Margin improvement of 320bps are difficult to fathom. Last quarter, PNK’s margins only improved 1.4%. Adding back the $1.7MM of ‘unusual’ expenses from last quarter, PNK’s margins would have been only 50bps better. Going forward, margin comps are a lot more difficult than in the first half of 2011.
Positions in Europe: Short EUR/USD (FXE)
Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".
Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States. Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal. By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending. Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 5 bps from last Monday to 77 bps today.
ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB. Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system. An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB. In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.
European Financials CDS Monitor – Bank swaps were tighter in Europe last week for 34 of the 40 reference entities. The average tightening was 2.3% and the median tightening was 9.4%.
Security Market Program – The ECB has still yet to publish its secondary sovereign bond purchases for the week ended 1/27 (normally due out by 10am EST on Mondays). It bought €2.243 Billion in the week ended 1/20 to take the total program to €219.0 Billion. We’ll post on the 1/27 amount as soon as it’s released.
A note on our short EUR/USD position and Europe’s Fiscal Compact illusions:
We remain short the EUR/USD via the etf FXE in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio. This is a position that has worked against us since last week’s announcements from President Obama (State of the Union Address) and Federal Reserve Chief Bernanke (FOMC Press Conference), both of which fundamentally changed our previously bullish outlook on the USD.
However, there’s been no resolutions out of Greece on PSI and increasingly Portugal is looking like the next Greece, which suggests we may see a chess fight between the EUR/USD for the weaker link of the pair. Also to note is that Germany has called to establishing a budget overseer in Greece to have strict control and veto power over Greece’s fiscal policy decisions going forward in return for bailout funds. Greece’s Finance Minister Venizelos adamantly rejected this plan and warned that “anyone who puts a nation before the dilemma of economic assistance or national dignity ignores some key historical lessons,” which signals to us that the Fiscal Compact being pushed in Europe has little hope of success as countries refuse to give up their sovereignty to Brussels (or Berlin). In short, we expect cultural difference to trump, and the union of uneven countries to struggle to resolve deep seeded sovereign disparities. In this light, we see a higher probability of intermediate term weakness in the EUR/USD.
Below is a heat map we use, courtesy of The Economist, which clearly shows the great difference in sovereign debt (as a % of GDP) across southern versus northern Europe. We expect this unevenness to have a long tail, and ultimately, and even if levels can be reduced through fiscal consolidation, to come at the expense of growth.
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
POSITION: Long Energy (XLE)
I came into today with no US Equity exposure in terms of US Index or Sector ETFs. Coming out of The Bernank Tax last week, I sold everything US Equities in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model. Today, I’ll take that US Equity position back up from 0% to 6%, buying some inflation protection (Energy – XLE).
I know this isn’t (wasn’t) the way consensus Keynesians want you to think about it – but from a Growth and Inflation Expectations perspective, this is the way the market sees that it is. On the margin, inflation expectations just went up and growth expectations down. Thirty S&P handles matter.
In the chart below you can see this manifesting itself in terms of the always dreaded lower long-term highs. From 1363 in April of 2011 to the 1326 closing high last week (1333 intraday high on Thursday), this looks a lot like US policy – Japanese. As a result, the long-term SP500 chart looks like the Nikkei.
Across all 3 risk management durations in my model, here are the lines that matter to me most right now:
In other words, I buy/cover here – but I’m taking my time. Lower-highs toward 1363 look firmly in place provided that the Policy To Inflate (slow growth) does.
The long-term TAIL holding tells me this is going to be an epic debate about the US Dollar and the policies that attempt to support or debauch it.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
No change to HK$23-24BN projection for January
In what will likely be considered a disappointment, total Macau gross gaming revenues (GGR) should finish the month around HK$23.5 billion, up around 30% YoY. Recent expectations have been elevated, unfortunately. However, our original projection was HK$23-24 billion, so we wouldn’t exactly consider January a bad month. February does face a comp that included the Chinese New Year (CNY) celebration last year, although the VIP hold comparison is quite easy.
In terms of market share, LVS is the clear winner this month. As we expected, LVS’s big junket effort paid off handsomely during the CNY celebration with all the whales in town. Both MPEL and WYNN posted disappointing January market shares. Hold likely played a role, particularly for MPEL. We would expect the Macau stocks to be weak today with the possible exception of LVS.
With a lack of near-term positive catalysts in Macau – although analysts still need to raise Q4 estimates for MPEL – and the recent big move, Macau stocks could underperform.
THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR
Comments from CEO Keith McCullough
#TheBernank Tax = rising inflation expectations and slowing growth expectations – the market now agrees:
On a snap of 1313, I have no support in the SP500 to 1297.
WEN: Wendy’s reported preliminary 4Q results this morning. EPS came in at $0.04, in line with consensus. North America systemwide comparable restaurant sales came in at +4.4%. The Analyst Day taking place today in New York is an important event for Emil Brolick, the new CEO, and we will be waiting to hear if he is lowering expectations for the company.
SBUX: Starbucks and Tata Global Beverages have formed an equal Joint Venture which will operate Starbucks cafes in India. The first store in India will open by August.
NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:
COSI: Cosi put up some strong sales numbers last week
KKD: The breakfast daypart is performing well
GMCR: The bull/bear battle rages on
TAST: The split cometh
YUM: TACO Bell and PH in the USA had a better than bad quarter
WEN: Analyst day is today in NYC – this is Emil Brolick’s real coming out party. Will he lower the bar?
SBUX: Expectations were a little too high going into the quarter