THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 30, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or -1.47% downside to 1297 and 0.73% upside to 1326. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - ONE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - TWO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - THREE

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

TREASURIES – rising inflation expectations slow growth expectations – the 10yr yield is getting smoked this morning down to 1.86% and is right back into what we call a Bearish Formation. The Yield Spread has compressed 13bps in a week with Bernanke leaning on the long-end. Jaime Dimon won’t be pleased; neither will US Equity investors looking for rotation out of bonds.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 857 (918) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 850.21(-1.89%)
  • VIX:  18.53 -0.22% YTD PERFORMANCE: -20.81%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.94 from 2.03 (-4.43)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 50.03
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.05%
  • 10-Year: 1.85 from 1.89
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.65 from 1.68

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Dec., est. 0.4% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, Dec., est. 0.1% (prior 0.1%)
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed., Jan., est. 0.5 (prior -3.0)
  • 11am: Export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30am, U.S. to sell $31b 3-month, $29b 6-month bills
  • U.S. Treasury Releases Quarterly Borrowing Estimates

GOVERNMENT:

    • Quinnipiac University releases latest Fla. poll, a day before Republican primary, 8am
    • House not in session; Senate in session
    • House subcommittee field hearing on drilling in Cuba, Bahamas 10am

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • EU leaders gather for their first summit of 2012 as a deteriorating economy, struggle to complete Greek debt writeoff risk sidetracking efforts to stamp out financial crisis
  • ABB to buy Thomas & Betts for $72/shr, or $3.9b, to expand its North American distribution network, boost low-voltage equipment
  • Facebook said to plan IPO filing as early as coming week
  • U.S. consumer purchases in Dec. may have risen 0.1% for a third consecutive month, economists est.
  • Euro-area confidence in the economic outlook improved less than forecast in January
  • Ex-UBS trader Kweku Adoboli pleads not guilty over $2.3b loss
  • El Paso is in advanced talks to sell its oil-exploration unit to a group led by Apollo Global for ~$7b: WSJ
  • Citigroup Chairman Richard Parsons considers stepping down: WSJ
  • Bank of America named Christian Meissner sole leader of global investment banking
  • Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Citigroup made some of the yr’s biggest pay cuts in compensation, avg. as much as 30%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
  • TonenGeneral agreed to buy partner Exxon’s Japanese business for $3.9b
  • Delta Air Lines is studying a bid for US Airways Group
  • "The Grey,’’ an action film starring Liam Neeson, opened in first place in U.S., Canadian cinemas with $20m
  • Fed’s pledge to keep interest rates low, possibly boost asset purchases will release cash into system, helping equities, Templeton’s Mark Mobius tells Bloomberg
  • No IPOs scheduled: Bloomberg data

EARNINGS:

    • Wolverine World Wide (WWW) 6:30am, $0.45
    • Wendy’s (WEN) 8am, $0.04
    • Gannett (GCI) 8:15am, $0.68
    • Hologic (HOLX) 4:01pm, $0.32
    • Plum Creek Timber (PCL) 4:04pm, $0.39
    • McKesson (MCK) 4:10pm, $1.38
    • Graco (GGG) 4:30pm, $0.51
    • Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) 5pm, $1.84
    • SL Green Realty (SLG) Aft-mkt, $1.00

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hedge-Fund Bulls Add to Bets as Rally Accelerates: Commodities
  • Gasoline Shutdowns Spur Record Bullish Futures: Energy Markets
  • Gold Drops From Seven-Week High as Euro Declines, Demand Weakens
  • Natural Gas Rises for Second Day on Forecast for Colder Weather
  • Copper Falls for Second Day on Speculation Prices Rose Too High
  • Soybeans, Corn Drop as Rains Ease South American Crop Concern
  • Cocoa Falls on Ivorian Forward Sales Speculation, Sugar Advances
  • Vietnam May Export up to 3.5 Million Tons of Rice in First Half
  • EU to Decide in July on Free Post-2012 CO2 Permits for Power
  • Africa Seen Mirroring Brazil in Atlantic Coast Drilling:Energy
  • Rubber May Gain to Highest Since September: Technical Analysis
  • JFE Forecasts First Annual Loss as Slowing Economies Hurt Demand
  • Barclays Says Sell Usiminas on Steel Imports: Brazil Credit
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Hedge-Fund Bulls Add to Bets as Rally Gains
  • Oil Falls a Second Day on Speculation EU Debt Talks May Fail
  • Gold January Rally Pointing to Record $2,300: Technical Analysis
  • Kloeckner Drops as CEO Sees Lower Steel Demand: Frankfurt Mover

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - FOUR

 

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - FIVE

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

GERMANY – if the Greeks think they’re going to play a game of chicken with the Germans, we’ll take the Germans. Critically, the DAX backs off its long-term TAIL line of 6503 hard this morning as European stocks and bonds finally have a down day of consequence.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - SIX

 


ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – the Chinese came back from holidays and just sold (we’re long Chinese Equities). They should have because Bernanke just jammed them with a commodity inflation tax and that’s the #1 thing, on the margin, that slows Chinese, Indian, etc growth. India’s Sensex(we’re short) failed at its TAIL line of 17,643 resistance and the Nikkei (we’re short) closed down for 3rd consecutive day.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - SEVEN

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - EIGHT

 

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

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REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

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Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

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Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

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We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

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Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

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