prev

Self-Control

“The conclusion is straightforward: self-control requires attention and effort.”

-Daniel Kahneman

 

That’s a very simple quote from a very important chapter in “Thinking, Fast and Slow” titled The Lazy Controller. I personally have a lot of work to do on this front. As an athlete, I was much better at this than I am as an investor – control what you can control.

 

It required some attention and effort to sell into the stock and commodity market inflations inspired by The Bernank Tax last week. With the S&P futures trading at 1305 this morning, US stocks are down over -2% from Thursday morning’s intraday 2012 high of 1333.

 

With China coming back from the holiday closing down -1.5% overnight, it looks like I should have sold that too (I sold everything else). The Chinese do not appreciate US policies to inflate because food and energy inflation slows Chinese growth.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I make a lot of mistakes. The biggest ones tend to occur when I either get influenced by someone else’s process and/or when I don’t let the market stop me out of my own.

 

Thinking fast about the immediate-term while thinking slow about the long-term is the holy grail of being at what Kahneman calls “cognitive ease.” I can’t work any harder – so for me, at this stage of my career, my goal is to work smarter.

 

I think Kahneman nails my own issues to the boards in saying that, sometimes, “too much concern about how well one is doing in a task sometimes disrupts performance by loading short-term memory with pointless anxious thoughts.” (page 41)

 

But, most of the time, that’s our over-supplied profession’s short-term cross to bear more than it is my own – and we can turn that regressive energy into positive P&L by coming to the most straightforward conclusion, fast.

 

As a reminder, our primary conclusions about Big Government Interventions in markets for the last 4 years has been:

 

1.       They Shorten Economic Cycles

2.       They Amplify Market Volatility

 

This is the #1 reason why I am such a bull on stabilizing/strengthening the #1 factor in my Global Macro Model that drives short-termism in global market prices/volatilities – the US Dollar Index.

 

Last week’s price action doesn’t lie, Keynesian policy makers do. With the US Dollar down -1.6% week-over-week, here’s what the big stuff did:

  1. CRB Index (18 commodities) Inflation = straight up +1.6%
  2. US Stocks = flat (Dow down -0.5%; SP500 up +0.1%)
  3. US Treasuries = 10-year yields dropped -6.4% to 1.89%

Why?

 

1.       Inflation Expectations were rising

2.       Growth Expectations were falling

 

And, again, that’s how my risk management model rolls:

  1. Policy drives currency
  2. Currency debauchery drives inflation expectations
  3. Inflation expectations drive growth (and margin) expectations

If you go back and analyze every single big investment mistake I have made in the last 13 years (I have), unless there’s something like a take-out in one of my short positions (I was short Reebok when Adidas bought them), almost all of the time I was long something where Growth Slowed and Margins Compressed.

 

That’s why I think, fast and slow, about Countries/Economies this way. Ultimately, on the margins of Growth and Inflation, they act like companies.

 

I know there’s a lot of controversy around my macro views. I know there’s a lot of emotion in what we do. I know I should have been long Gold last week. I know what I know.

 

What I don’t know is what really matters to me. That’s why I need the Self-Control to Embrace Uncertainty and let the market tell me what to do next.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), EUR/USD, Shanghai Composite, German DAX, and the SP500 are now $1, $110.12-112.06, $1.29-1.31, 2, 6, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Self-Control - Chart of the Day

 

Self-Control - Virtual Portfolio


Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan

Conclusion: As predicted, the silence of Lunar New Year brought forth a largely uneventful week in Asia. Ahead of next week’s headlines, which will hit fast and furious amid a bevy of economic data releases, we take a moment to briefly focus on Japan from a fiscal policy perspective – especially in light of the negative long-term fundamentals that were reported this week.

 

Virtual Portfolio Positions in Asia: Long Chinese equities (CAF); Short Indian equities (INP); Short Japanese equities (EWJ).

 

PRICE SIGNALS

All % moves week-over-week unless otherwise specified.

  • EQUITIES
    • Median: +0.8%; High: India +3%
    • Low: Philippines -1.4%
    • Callout: Thailand +12.1% over the last three months vs. a regional median of +0.1%
  • FX (vs. USD)
    • Median: +1.3%
    • High: Malaysian ringgit and New Zealand dollar +2.2%
    • Low: Indonesian rupiah -0.2%
    • Callout: New Zealand dollar +11.3% over the last two months vs. a regional median of -0.1%
  • S/T SOVEREIGN DEBT (2YR)
    • High: Philippines +51bps
    • Low: Indonesia -10bps
    • Callout: India -92bps over the last six months
  • L/T SOVEREIGN DEBT (10YR)
    • High: India +19bps
    • Low: Indonesia -9bps
    • Callout: Australia +15bps YTD
  • SOVEREIGN YIELD SPREADS (10s-2s)
    • High: India +19bps
    • Low: Philippines -51bps
    • Callout: Australia +15bps YTD
  • 5YR CDS
    • Median: -3.9%
    • High: China, Thailand, S. Korea, and Thailand all flat wk/wk
    • Low: Indonesia -9.9%
    • Callout: Japan +23.6% over the last three months vs. a regional median of +3.2%
  • 1YR O/S INTEREST RATE SWAPS
    • Median: flat wk/wk
    • High: India +12bps
    • Low: Singapore 4bps
    • Callout: China -61bps/-28.3% over the last three months vs. a regional median of -1.3%
  • O/N INTERBANK RATES
    • Median: flat wk/wk
    • High: India +40bps
    • Low: Thailand -25bps
    • Callout: India +137bps/+17% over the last six months vs. a regional median of -1%
  • CORRELATION RISK
    • The gradual receding of European sovereign debt risk since NOV has been supportive of foreign inflows into Asian capital markets, with the JPM Asian Dollar Index garnering a +97% correlation to the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Equity Index on a six-week basis.

Full price and performance tables can be found at the conclusion of this note.

 

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

 On Monday, we’ll be releasing the second installment of our Japan’s Jugular thesis, which details our long-term research and risk management views on the country.  The following charts are a sneak peak at what we promise will be a thought-provoking slide deck:

 

The year 2012 has the potential to be a rather volatile year for the JGB market, with a few key months worth monitoring from a bond auction perspective:

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 1

 

Relative widening in the CDS markets suggests that this incremental credit risk is being priced in, on the margin:

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 3

 

If Japan does face an environment of sovereign debt challenges this year, the Bank of Japan has limited resources to step in and calm the market under current statutes (which, as we’ve learned, can always be changed mid-game):

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 2

 

KEY CALLOUTS

Growth Slowing’s Bottom:

  • Japan: Export growth slowed in DEC to -8% YoY vs. -4.5% prior. The country posted its first annual trade deficit since 1980, driven by the strong yen and weak external demand on the export front and a surge in post-tsunami energy imports. Japanese nuclear power generation remains -85.3% below pre-crisis levels and will face structural political headwinds going forward.
  • Japan: Retail Sales growth accelerated in DEC +2.5 YoY vs. -2.2% prior, as Japanese consumers (some flush w/ insurance payouts) took advantage of the first post-crisis Holiday Season to treat themselves.
  • Japan: The Bank of Japan lowered its economic growth outlook for FY12 to +2% from +2.2% prior while maintaining is +0.1% CPI target.
  • Hong Kong: Export growth slowed in DEC to +7.4% YoY vs. +2% prior.
  • South Korea: Real GDP came in essentially flat on a YoY basis in 4Q: +3.4% vs. +3.5%. On a QoQ basis, growth slowed to +0.4% vs. +0.8%.
  • South Korea: Korea’s JAN Business Survey came in slightly better than the DEC version, with the Manufacturing Index ticking up to 81 (from 79) and Non-Manufacturing Index holding flat at 79.
  • Thailand: Rebounding from generational flooding, Thailand’s Manufacturing Production growth accelerated in DEC to -25.8% YoY vs. -47.5% prior. Capacity Utilization ticked up as well: 52.3% vs. 40.5% prior.

King Dollar:

  • Japan: CPI accelerated in DEC to -0.2% YoY vs. -0.5%. Any erosion of Japan’s real interest rate advantage applies pressure, on the margin, upon JPY/JGB assets relative to the USD/USTs.
  • India: Amid receding inflation, the Reserve Bank of India lowered the country’s Cash Reserve Ratio -50bps to 5.5%, which should add around 320B rupees ($6.4B) in liquidity for Indian banks. Ironically, Indian O/N Interbank Rate closed up +40bps wk/wk, indicating that at least some lenders were anticipating perhaps a greater degree of easing (rate cuts). Refer to our Thursday note titled “Re-Shorting India: INP Trade Update” for more details regarding the scope for monetary easing in India.
  • Singapore: CPI slowed in DEC to +5.5% YoY vs. +5.7% prior. More importantly, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said that it expects inflation to average +2.5-3.5% in 2012 – a slowdown that would give it room to ease by revaluating the Singapore dollar’s USD-peg lower.
  • Thailand: The Bank of Thailand cut the country’s Benchmark Interest Rate -25bps to 3%.
  • Australia: Australia came in with some mixed-to-slightly dovish 4Q inflation data: CPI slowed to +3.1% YoY from +3.5% prior; Core CPI accelerated to +2.6% YoY vs. +2.4% prior; and PPI accelerated to +2.9% YoY vs. +2.7% prior. From a monetary policy perspective, this data doesn’t force the RBA to react dramatically in either direction.

Other:

  • China: Xi Jinping, the likely candidate to replace Hu Jintao as China’s next president in MAR '13, will likely be a catalyst for China to take additional steps toward free-market capitalism, based upon his economically liberal reforms as party chief of the Zhejiang province.
  • China: Chinese property prices need to decline an additional -30% in various areas to reach a “reasonable” level, according to He Keng, who serves as deputy director of the National People’s Congress. This is in-line with our view that China will keep its “foot on the brake” with regards to its property market for the foreseeable future.
  • Japan: Per the Japanese Cabinet Office, the country will likely miss its goal of balancing the budget by at least fiscal 2020 – even if it doubles the consumption tax to 10%! Slow projected growth (+1% per annum) and an unavoidable surge in entitlement spending will continue to grow Japan’s sovereign debt load well beyond the ¥1,086,000,000,000,000 (QUADRILLION) its projected to rise to in FY13.
  • Japan: Understanding the growing urgency to tackle the challenges above, the Diet is debating a DPJ-backed bill that would increase the consumption tax +300bps to 8% in 2014 (followed by another +200bps hike in 2015). The bill, which is opposed by 60% of Japanese voters, is unlikely to pass, as LDP appears to not want Noda’s administration to take credit for attempting to finally tackle the nation’s fiscal imbalances despite having similar goals in mind. Amid the political squabbling, which Standard & Poor’s cited as a reason for another [potential] downgrade, the Japanese public assigns a 17 and 16% approval rating for the DPJ and LDP, respectively.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Key economic data releases and policy announcements:

  • THIS WEEKEND
    • Philippines: 4Q Real GDP
    • New Zealand: DEC Services PMI
  • MONDAY
    • Japan: JAN Manufacturing PMI ; DEC: Unemployment Rate; DEC: Industrial Production
    • South Korea: DEC Industrial Production; DEC Service Industry Output
    • Singapore: 4Q Unemployment Rate
    • Taiwan: DEC Unemployment Rate
    • Australia: DEC NAB Business Sentiment; DEC Private Sector Credit
  • TUESDAY
    • China: JAN Manufacturing PMI (2x)
    • Japan: DEC: Construction Orders; DEC Housing Starts; JAN Small Business Confidence
    • India: JAN Manufacturing PMI
    • South Korea: JAN CPI; JAN Manufacturing PMI; JAN Trade Data
    • Indonesia: JAN CPI; DEC Trade Data; JAN Consumer Confidence (2x)
    • Thailand: DEC: Business Sentiment Index; DEC Trade Data; JAN CPI
    • Taiwan: 4Q Real GDP; JAN Manufacturing PMI
    • Australia: JAN Manufacturing PMI; DEC New Home Sales; 4Q House Price Index
    • Malaysia: Monetary Policy Decision
  • WEDNESDAY
    • Japan: JAN Vehicle Sales; JAN Monetary Base
    • India: DEC Trade Data
    • Singapore: JAN Manufacturing PMI
    • Australia: DEC Trade Balance
  • THURSDAY
    • China: JAN Services PMI (2x)
    • Hong Kong: DEC Retail Sales; JAN Manufacturing PMI
    • India: JAN Services PMI
    • Australia: JAN Services PMI
  • FRIDAY
    • None

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 4

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 5

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 6

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 7

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 8

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 9

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 10

 

Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Silent, but Japan - 11


GET THE HEDGEYE MARKET BRIEF FREE

Enter your email address to receive our newsletter of 5 trending market topics. VIEW SAMPLE

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

THE WEEK AHEAD

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 30th of January through the 3rd of February is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD - week11

THE WEEK AHEAD - week22

 


WMS: NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET

We’re bullish on slots for CY2012 but the big short squeeze and WMS’s pulling forward of shipments has us cautious about the near-term outlook.

 

 

WMS reported an interesting quarter, one that the investors loved or at least liked enough to scare the shorts off the shorts.  To be clear – all of the red flags that we raised before are still there.  Those 957 new units that were deferred are a perfect example of trying to pull revenue forward.  However, we actually raised our back half F12’ estimates – granted we were 20 cents below consensus to start with.  We’re currently at $1.47 for FY2012 EPS.

 

 

Here are some quick takeaways from the quarter:

 

Product Sales

  • If you include the deferred units, their ship share should be about 23% - otherwise, we think it was closer to 17%
  • While the company didn’t say so, it’s pretty obvious that the 957 deferred units (which were all new and expansion shipments) were shipped to the Ohio casinos
    • Again, not confirmed, but we’re fairly certain that Scioto Downs is in there
    • We know that there was more than one casino shipment there and it was not Revel or Maryland Live so that makes Cleveland Horseshoe a pretty good guess
    • Out of the revenue recognition reasons that were not fulfilled and hence, led to the deferral,  we’re pretty sure WMS still had some contractual obligations to be met
    • As a reminder, the racinos in Ohio are governed by the Ohio Lottery Commission and the manufacturers have been licensed by that entity
  • If we had to guess, the 1,500 unit deal is with Caesars, and our understanding is that the shipment of those units will be heavily weighted towards the first half of calendar ‘12
  • ASP’s will likely be a tad higher in WMS's 2H12
  • WMS is back to shipping to Mexico – contrary to prior guidance, there were some Mexico shipments in international.  Last year, there were about 1k units sold into that market. 

Gaming Operations

  • Participation revenues were clearly disappointing.  The company claims it was 1 for 1 replacement but the numbers tell you that it wasn’t that good. 
  • The only good news is that most of the units that came out were weighted to the beginning of the quarter.  We don’t know if they will get back to flat by year end; we’re not giving them the benefit of the doubt in our model just yet.
  • There were no new leased units – still only the 600 units placed with the Seminoles at $15/day
  • Portal applications are earning between $10-15/day and have very high margins
  • The online UK casino is growing fast on the top line but is still not break even and likely contributed a bit of a drag on game operations margins
  • The other bucket in games operations will become material next year when Italy comes online

Weekly European Monitor: A Short Squeeze Higher

Positions in Europe: Short EUR/USD (FXE)

 

Asset Class Performance:

  • Equities:  European indices were up across the board for a second straight week, in a range of +100 to 350bps week-over-week. Top performers:  Cyprus 20.9%; Romania 7.0%; Greece 5.3%; Austria 5.3%. Bottom performers:  Switzerland -1.5%; Portugal -90bps.
  • FX:  The EUR/USD +2.2% week-over-week. Divergences: HUF/EUR +3.4%, PLN/EUR +2.1%, RUB/EUR +1.8%, CZK/EUR +1.2%; Iceland Krona/EUR -1.1%.
  • Fixed Income:  10YR sovereign yields broadly decreased w/w, with Portugal the exception gaining 25bps [vs +216bps last week] to 14.87%. Greece led the declines at -65bps to 33.52%, followed by Spain -53bps to 4.96% and Belgium -40bps to 3.70%.

Weekly European Monitor: A Short Squeeze Higher - 1. Yields

 

 

In Review:


***When the equity markets of Cyprus, Romania, and Greece are leading performance year-to-date, the world’s markets are in a very perverse state. Our main question in the second half of this week was: is Greece’s equity performance attributable to inside information on the PSI deal getting done? We remain cautiously short the EUR-USD (more below) and extremely cautious on taking an investment position in Europe given the political risk of Eurocrats and various agencies (ISDA, IMF, and the big three Credit Ratings Agencies, to name a few). Another peculiarity of the week remains that sovereign CDS continues to trend higher as sovereign yields and the Euribor-OIS continue to come in. Portugal, however, bucked this trend with yields and CDS rising (more below). Advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs looked better in January across the major economies and the major bond auctions across the region proved successful in meeting demand and issuance at lower yields. This coming Monday’s report of the ECB’s SMP bond buying last week may be telling (high). 



Call Outs:

  • Greece’s PSI debt-swap talks remain unresolved for another week:
    •  IIF’s Charles Dallard says creditors have now made their “maximum'” offer and any further demands are likely to jeopardize a “voluntary” deal and trigger a default along with CDS contracts. The decision now falls to the EU/IMF on whether to accept the terms. Last week the IMF was pushing for the coupon on the new bonds in the 3.0%-3.5% range which would take the NPV of losses for the bondholders above 70% versus the 68% they had reportedly been willing to accept with a 4.0%-4.5% coupon. 
    • European Union foreign ministers agreed to ban oil imports from Iran.
    • EU data predicts for the 17 nations in the euro, only Estonia, Finland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Slovenia will be below public debt levels of 60% of GDP in 2012.
    • BOE minutes: voted 9-0 to keep asset purchases unchanged at 275 billion pounds
      • BOE Governor King said, “With inflation falling back and wage growth subdued, there is scope for interest rates to remain low, and, if necessary, for further asset purchases, to prevent inflation falling below the 2% target.”


Portugal On Uncertain Footing, Continued:

 

***This week saw a huge expansion of risk in Portugal in the form of rising CDS and sovereign yields. Growth, projected at -2.2% this year, will be a great challenge for the country as it runs the course of fiscal consolidation. We think there’s an outsized probability that Portugal misses its deficit target for a second straight year and its banks struggle to refinance and raise debt given its credit junk status.

 

Here are some contributing factors weighing on investors:

    • Portugal may be forced to impose a 50% haircut on its private creditors as well.
    • A report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Portugal would have to run a primary budget surplus of over 11% of GDP a year to prevent debt dynamics spiraling out of control, even in a benign scenario of 2% annual growth. David Bencek, the co-author, warned that no country can achieve a primary budget surplus above 5% for long.  The Institute said the haircut for Portugal would need to be 56% to put the country back on a sustainable path if long-term growth was 2%, or 46% if growth rose to 4%.  The IMF expects Portugal's public debt to peak at 118% of GDP in 2013. (1/25/12)
    • Speculation that Portugal may need another 30 Billion in EU/IMF rescue funds. According to Antonio Saraiva, the leader of the country’s industry confederation lobby, and because of the debt crisis, foreign banks have stopped refinancing Portuguese debt, which forced Portuguese banks to step in and deprived the rest of the economy of loans needed for it to pull itself out of the worst recession in decades. (1/25/12)
    • Standard and Poor’s downgraded Portuguese credit rating to Junk. (1/12/12)
    • Portugal’s central bank forecast the economy to contract -3.1% in 2012 in its Winter report, versus a Fall forecast of -2.2%. (1/10/12)
    • Outsized shadow economy that doesn’t pay tax, which has been reported by the OBEGEF Economy and Fraud Monitoring Observatory to have grown 2.5% in 2010 to 24.8% of GDP, or €8B in lost revenue. 

Carlos Moedas, Secretary of State to the Prime Minister of Portugal, presents an entirely different tone (one we find overly optimistic) on his outlook on Portugal in an article titled: Portugal Is Beating the Headwinds that was published in the WSJ on 1/26. See his comments here:

 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204661604577184761723189098.html

 


Pain in Spain, Continued:


This week two key Spanish Finance Ministers disagreed on the country’s deficit target. Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said Spain is sticking to its deficit goal even as the economy shrinks, whereas Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro’s called for the EU to ease Spain’s 4.4% of GDP deficit goal for 2012, as the figure was based on the previous government’s 2012 growth assumptions of +2.3% versus the Bank of Spain’s recent 2012 GDP estimate of -1.5%. 

 

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy affirmed this week that the target will be met. [Last year, the Spanish deficit amounting to 8% of GDP versus its target of 6%]. And EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn rejected Montoro, said it’s “essential” that Spain meets the target.

 

Since Rajoy was elected on November 20th, the rate on 10-year Spanish debt has declined 159bps to 4.965%, however fundamentals don’t look rosy.

 

The unemployment rate stands at 22.9% in November and a housing overhang persists, preventing the market from clearing as banks remain reluctant to liquidate “troubled” assets that the Bank of Spain has estimated at €176B.

 

Last year house prices fell -8.2%, versus -17% since prices peaked in 1Q 2008. An issue that stands unanswered is if Rajoy will commit public funds to banks to bleed their “troubled” assets, a position he’s avoided as he focuses on bringing down the government’s deficit.  According to an interview by de Guindos he’s “absolutely” ruled out setting up a so-called bad bank to acquire damaged assets from lenders, saying the cleanup process won’t “cost a penny more” to the taxpayer.

 

 

Merkel at the Pulpit and ESM vs EFSF:

***There’s been much talk this week about the permanent European Bailout Fund, named the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) that is effective July 2012 and currently stands at €500B. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said the ESM needs to be increased, whereas Merkel takes a more cautious tone on setting expectations and managing the “crisis”.


On calls to increase the size of the ESM, German Chancellor Merkel said, “Some say that it has to be double the size, then if that’s not big enough, others will say it has to be three times as big. What we don’t want is a situation in which we promise something that we can’t back up.”    -Opening speech of Davos, 1/25/12.

 

On the direction to bind the Union, she said: "We will only be able to strengthen our common currency if we co-ordinate our policies more closely and are prepared to gradually give up more powers to the EU. If we make loads of promises about debt reduction and sound budgeting, those need to be things that can be enforced or brought to court in the future. The point of the fiscal compact, after all, is to make it possible to check on those commitments. That means giving our [European] institutions more monitoring rights – and more bite."   

 

On Greece:  “Of course, there's Greece, a special case where, despite all the efforts that have been made, neither the Greeks themselves nor the international community have yet managed to stabilize the situation."

 

On Eurobonds:  Merkel again ruled out pooling Eurozone debt – Eurobonds – as a quick fix to the crisis, but left the option open should the new euro regime produce results.   -Interview with The Guardian 1/25/12

 

 

Key Sovereign Bond Auction Prove Successful This Week:

  • Spain sold €2.51 billion in 3-6M bills on 1/24 with an average yield on 6M 1.847% vs 2.435% on Dec 20.
  • Germany sold €2.46 billion in 30YR bonds on 1/25 with an average yield of 2.62% versus 2.82% prior.
  • Italy sold €5 billion of zero coupon bonds on 1/26 maturing in Jan. 2014 with a yield of 3.763% vs 4.853% on Dec 28.
  • Italy successfully sold its target of €11 billion in bonds on 1/27 with an average yield on 6M bills at 1.969% vs 3.251% on Dec 28. 


PMI Manufacturing (Preliminary JAN):

France 48.5 JAN (exp. 48.6) vs 48.9 DEC

Germany 50.9 JAN (exp. 49) vs 48.4 DEC

Eurozone 48.7 JAN (exp. 47.3) vs 46.9 DEC


PMI Services

France 51.7 JAN (exp. 50) vs 50.3 DEC

Germany 54.5 JAN (exp 52.5) vs 52.4 DEC

Eurozone 50.5 JAN (exp. 49) vs 48.8 DEC

 

 

Key Regional Data This Week:


Positives (+)

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence 5.9 FEB vs 5.7 JAN

Germany IFO Business Confidence 108.3 JAN vs 107.3 DEC

Germany IFO Current Assessment 116.3 JAN vs 116.7 DEC

Germany IFO Expectations 100.9 JAN vs 98.6 DEC

Germany Import Price Index 1.0% Q4 Y/Y vs 2.7% in Q3

 

 

Negatives (-)

France Business Confidence Indicator 91 JAN vs 94 DEC

UK Q4 GDP -0.2% Q/Q (exp. -0.1%) vs 0.6% Q3

Spain Unemployment Rate 22.9% in Q4 vs 22.2% estimate (highest level in 15 years)

 


CDS Risk Monitor:

***On a w/w basis, CDS was largely down across European sovereigns, with Portugal the exception for a second straight week. Italy saw the biggest declines at -62bps to 409bps, followed by Ireland -30bps to 623bps, and Spain -19bps to 362bps. Portugal gained +163bps (versus +169bps last week) to 1420bps (see charts below).   

 

Weekly European Monitor: A Short Squeeze Higher - 1. CDS a

 

Weekly European Monitor: A Short Squeeze Higher - 1. CDS b

 

EUR-USD

***Keith shorted the EUR/USD via the eft FXE on 1/19 in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio with the price bumping up against our immediate term TRADE resistance level of $1.29. We’ll be watching this position closely as our bullish outlook on the US Dollar greatly changed this week given the debauchery messages from President Obama (State of the Union Address) and Federal Reserve Chief Bernanke (FOMC Press Conference).

 

Weekly European Monitor: A Short Squeeze Higher - 1. EUR

 

 

The European Week Ahead:


Monday:   EU Summit; Jan. Eurozone Consumer Confidence - Final; Jan. Eurozone Business Climate Indicator; Jan. Eurozone Consumer, Economic, Industrial, and Services Confidence; Jan. Germany Consumer Price Index – Preliminary; Jan. UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey; Jan. Italy Business Confidence; Q4 Spain, Ukraine, and Lithuania GDP – Preliminary

 

Tuesday:  Dec. Eurozone Unemployment Rate; Jan. Germany Unemployment Rate and Change; Dec. UK Money Supply; Dec. France Producer Prices and Consumer Spending; 2011 Russia Annual GDP; Dec. Italy Unemployment Rate – Preliminary and PPI

 

Wednesday:   Jan. Eurozone, Germany, and France PMI Manufacturing – Final; Eurozone Jan. CPI Estimate; Jan. UK House Prices and PMI Manufacturing

 

Thursday:  Dec. Eurozone PPI; Jan. UK Lloyds Business Barometer; Dec. UK PMI Construction; Jan. Spain Unemployment

 

Friday:  Jan. Eurozone PMI Composite and Services – Final; Dec. Eurozone Retail Sales; Jan. Germany and France PMI Services – Final; Jan. UK PMI Services and Official Reserves; Jan. Italy CPI – Preliminary and PMI Services

 


Extended Calendar Call-Outs:

16 February:  Allegedly the “new” PSI deadline, but more practically, 20 March.

29 February:  2nd 36-Month LTRO Allotment

25-26 February:  G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Mexico City. Decision on IMF loan of €500B expected

20 March:  Greece’s €14.5B Bond Redemption Due

30 June:  Deadline for EU Banks to meet €106B capital target/the 9% Tier 1 capital ratio

1 July:  ESM to come into force

 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

next