Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Stress-Testing Asian Risk

Conclusion: Both Chinese and Indian equities look to test critical levels of resistance (TREND) in the coming trading days. India, in particular, will be in the spotlight next week amid various regional equity market closures. While we are long one and short the other, the data is starting to suggest both markets are potentially due for a breakout.


Virtual Portfolio Positions in Asia: Long Chinese equities (CAF); Short Indian equities (INP).



All % moves week-over-week unless otherwise specified.

  • EQUITIES Median: +2.1%; High: Vietnam +5.3%; Low: Malaysia flat; Callout: India +10.3% over the past month
  • FX (vs. USD) Median: +1.1%; High: Indonesian rupiah +2.6%; Low: Chinese yuan -0.2%; Indian rupee +5.6% YTD
  • S/T SOVEREIGN DEBT (2YR) High: Malaysia +2bps; Low: Indonesia -47bps; Callout: Indonesia -42bps YTD
  • L/T SOVEREIGN DEBT (10YR) High: Japan +4bps; Low: Indonesia -57bps; Callout: Hong Kong +19bps over the past two months
  • SOVEREIGN YIELD SPREADS High: Philippines +27bps; Low: Indonesia -10bps; Callout: Hong Kong +17bps wider over the past two months vs. a regional median of -6bps
  • 5YR CDS High: New Zealand -3.3%/-3bps; Low: Indonesia -6%/-13bps; Callout: Japan +17%/+20bps over the past two months vs. a regional median of -7.1%
  • 1YR O/S INTEREST RATE SWAPS High: India +17bps; Low: Indonesia -25bps; Callout: China -25.2% narrower over the past six months to a price of -45bps below the PBOC’s 1yr Household Deposit Rate
  • O/N INTERBANK RATES High: Australia +7bps; Low: China -116bps; Callout: China -39.1% tighter over the LTM, which is bullish, on the margin for YoY credit growth in the face of the PBOC’s continued “selective easing” measures
  • CORRELATION RISK Growth expectations are a key driver of recent strength in Asian equities; the MSCI All-Country Asia Index is +92% correlated to the CRB Raw Industrials Index on a six-week basis

Full price and performance tables can be found at the conclusion of this note.



Inflation in India slowed well-beyond our most aggressive estimates, which forced us to reevaluate and re-weight the probabilities in our scenario analysis. The RBI’s +6-7% MAR ’11 target is definitely now in-play, which now takes them out of the “box” and gives them headroom to ease monetary policy.


Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Stress-Testing Asian Risk - 1


A breakout in the SENSEX above its TREND line would be an explicit signal that our bearish bias on Indian equities was too long in the tooth (initiated 11/9/10).


Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Stress-Testing Asian Risk - 2


While China’s stock market is closed all of next week, we look to the following week as an important week for economic data (PMIs released), which may bring forth a test of China’s TREND line of resistance. A breakout above would only increase our conviction in being long of Chinese equities.


Weekly Asia Risk Monitor: Stress-Testing Asian Risk - 3



On Tuesday, we published an in-depth update on China’s growth/inflation/policy outlook. The comments below pick up where that analysis left off. As always, we aim to be concise with our remarks; please email us if you’d like to follow up in more detail.


Growth Slowing’s Bottom:

  • China: According to insiders, the PBOC will allow the 5 largest banks to increase lending by about +5% YoY in 1Q12 (which would be up from -13.2% YoY in 1Q11). Additionally, the regulator will delay the implementation of tighter capital standards and may also lower the risk-weighting of SME loans. That latter maneuver could potentially alleviate the SME credit crunch on the margin as banks become incentivized to hold more of those assets. Additional signs of such “policy fine-tuning” were demonstrated this week when the PBOC lowered RRR in the Guizhou province.
  • China: HSBC Flash PMI accelerated slightly in DEC to 48.8 vs. 48.7 prior… slowing at a slower rate.
  • Japan: Consumer Confidence ticked up marginally in DEC to 38.9 vs. 38.1 prior.
  • Singapore: Non-Oil Domestic Exports growth accelerated in DEC to +9% YoY vs. +1.4% prior. Alongside Hong Kong, the manufacturing and trade data out of Singapore remains a key leading indicator for global growth.
  • Thailand: Exports accelerated in DEC to -2% YoY vs. -12.4% prior.
  • Australia: Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up in JAN to 97.1 vs. 94.7 prior.
  • New Zealand: ANZ’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up in JAN to 116.1 vs. 108.4 prior.

Deflating the Inflation:

  • India: In a shock to our bearish intermediate-term thesis on India, WPI slowed dramatically in DEC to +7.5% YoY vs. +9.1% prior. This reading is 80bps below the most aggressive scenario in our models and forced to reevaluate and re-weight the probabilities in our scenario analysis. The RBI’s +6-7% MAR ’11 target is definitely now in-play, which now takes them out of the “box” and gives them headroom to ease monetary policy. Expect the RBI to communicate such in next Tuesday’s monetary policy announcement. Should the RBI pander to dovish policy speculation, we would expect to see the SENSEX break out above its TREND line – an explicit signal that our bearish bias on Indian equities was too long in the tooth (initiated 11/9/10). We maintain our bearish bias on the rupee and view the recent trend of appreciation on the strength of record-setting international fixed-income flows as an eventual short-selling opportunity.
  • Japan: PPI slowed in DEC to +1.3% YoY vs. +1.6% prior.
  • New Zealand: CPI slowed in 4Q to +1.8% QoQ vs. +4.6% prior.
  • Malaysia: CPI slowed in DEC to +3% YoY vs. +3.3% prior.

King Dollar:

  • China: We continue to see signs of capital creeping out of China on a diminished outlook for yuan appreciation, as Foreign Direct Investment growth slowed in DEC to -12.7% YoY vs. -9.8% prior. Interestingly, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has pledged to prevent capital from leaving the country due to speculative activity. One of the ways we believe his regime will attempt to achieve this goal is by funneling foreign investors into China’s equity market. In DEC, the China Securities Regulatory Commission granted 14 new QFII licenses – dramatically higher than the typical 1-4 per month pace we’ve seen since the start of the program.
  • Philippines: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lowered the country’s Benchmark Interest Rate -25bps to 4.25%. Speculation around their easing has been particularly bullish for the PSEI (up +5.3% over the last six months vs. median -8.9% loss throughout Asia) and we’re seeing all-time high international inflows in to Filipino equities ($1.1B over the past two months alone). We remain bullish on this asset class over the intermediate term. Refer to our 8/31 note titled: “Philippines: One of the Better Stories in Global Macro” for more details.


  • Taiwan: Taiwanese growth continued on its established trend down in DEC. Both Industrial Production and Export Orders growth slowed to -8.2% YoY (vs. -4.7% prior) and -0.7% YoY (vs. +2.5% prior), respectively.
  • South Korea: This week brought forth hawkish commentary, on the margin, out of the Bank of Korea. Per Governor Kim Shoong Soo: “Interest rates are still below policy makers’ desired level and that discrepancy cannot be left for long. We still think our monetary policy is accommodative; by that what I mean is that in the market there still exists a little excess liquidity. Our basic policy direction is to normalize our interest rates compatible with our demand pressures and pressures for inflation.” The muted wk/wk impact in the bond and interest rate markets suggests this view was already priced in.
  • Australia: The Aussies reported some fairly hot (on the margin) inflation data this week: TD Securities Unofficial CPI accelerated in DEC to +2.4% YoY vs. +2.1% prior; the RBA’s Consumer Inflation Expectation Survey accelerated in DEC to +2.8% YoY vs. +2.4% prior; Import Prices accelerated in 4Q to +2.5% QoQ vs. flat prior. Our models still see Aussie inflation slowing over the intermediate term, but the obvious impact of 1Q11 natural disasters should boost growth statistics in the near-term and may limit the urgency to pursue dovish monetary policy out of Glenn Stevens and Co., which is bullish (on the margin) for the Aussie dollar. Increased bullish sentiment towards China is also supportive of the AUD as well.


  • China: Home prices posted their worst performance of the year in DEC, with only two of the 70 cities posting MoM gains. Further, China’s Real Estate Climate Index ended 2011 at a 29-month low of 98.9 (-4.2% YoY). The other key real estate metrics we track (Commercial & Residential Floor Space Started, Land Area Purchased, Source of Funds for Real Estate Investing) are all at/near 2-3yr lows. We believe China’s property market will remain under official assault by policymakers; that will continue to act as a governor on Chinese (and global) growth. 
  • Japan: The Bank of Japan will delay by 2yrs a plan to divest its equity stakes in Japanese financial institutions (acquired in 2002 amid systematic deleveraging and capital raises). Originally scheduled for MAR ‘12, this is negative for the yen on the margin, as it maintains the size of the BOJ’s bloated balance sheet relative to expectations.
  • Hong Kong: Both CPI and the Unemployment Rate were unchanged in DEC at 5.7% YoY and 3.3%, respectively.
  • Australia: In 2011, the Aussies saw the slowest yearly employment growth since 1992 – a shock to the RBA’s baseline model that investment in energy and mining production will fuel labor market tightness over the long-term. In DEC, payrolls growth slowd to -29.3k MoM vs. -7.5k prior; the Unemployment Rate held flat at 5.2% as the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked down -30bps to 65.2%.
  • Taiwan: Ma Ying-jeou won a second 4yr term as president of Taiwan in last Sunday’s election – a clear voter referendum for increased cross-border trade and investment flows with the mainland.


Key economic data releases and policy announcements:

  • THIS WEEKEND: Australian PPI;
  • MON: Reserve Bank of India Quarterly Economic Report
  • TUES: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Announcement; Japanese Trade Data; Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Announcement; Australian CPI
  • WED: South Korean GDP; Singaporean CPI; Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Announcement
  • THURS: Japanese CPI and Retail Sales; Hong Kong Trade Data; South Korean Business Surveys and Consumer Confidence; Singaporean Industrial Production
  • FRI: Thai Industrial Production
  • OTHER: The Lunar New Year will see various closures of Asian equity markets: China and Taiwan are closed all week; Hong Kong is closed Mon-Wed; South Korea is closed Mon-Tues; and Australia is closed Thursday for Australia Day.

Darius Dale



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The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 23rd of January through the 27th is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.




Weekly European Monitor: Is This A Head Fake?

Positions in Europe: Short EUR/USD (FXE)


Asset Class Performance:

  • Equities: European indices were up across the board around +100-400bps week-over-week. Top performers: Greece 9.8%; Hungary 8.6%; Finland 5.7%; Czech Republic and Austria 5.0%; Germany 4.3%.  Bottom performers: Slovakia -10bps; Norway +20bps
  • FX: The EUR/USD  $1.2924 or +2.0% week-over-week. Divergences: PLN/EUR +2.3%, HUF/EUR  +2.2%; Iceland Krona/EUR -88bps
  • Fixed Income: 10YR sovereign yields broadly increased w/w, led by Portugal +216bps to 14.62%; Spain +27bps to 5.49%. Italian yields declined -41bps to 6.23% and remained under the 7% level for the entire week. Greek yields came down -20bps but only to the lofty 34.16%.

Weekly European Monitor: Is This A Head Fake? - 11 yields



Call Outs:

  • EFSF cut to AA+ from AAA by S&P on Monday. Eurocrats attempt to downplay the event.
  • IIF was in Athens this week to resume PSI talks however no deal was reached. 
  • Germany’s ZEW Confidence figures bounce (see chart of the week below).
  • Strong Bond Auctions From Key Countries:
    • Spain sold €4.88 billion of 12-18 month bills (on 1/17) with average yield of 2.049% vs 4.05% prior.
    • France sold €7.97 billion of 2-3-4YR notes on 1/19, just short of its maximum target, with the average yield on the benchmark two-year notes sliding to 1.05% from 1.58%.
  • Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker said "Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts. The euro area’s most indebted country is unlikely to be able to honor a March 20 bond payment of 14.5 Billion EUR ($18 Billion).
  • IMF sees Eurozone GDP down 0.5% in 2012.
  • Germany cuts its 2012 growth forecast to 0.7% from 1.0%.


In Review:

For a second consecutive week it has been a relatively quiet “news” week in Europe, however mania returned on Tuesday morning in the form of a “rumored” announcement that the IMF was asking for nations across the globe to contribute $1trillion to the IMF to aid Europe (the figure was then downgraded to $500 billion within an hour).  In any case, the numbers don’t shake out and here’s why:

  • Few countries across the globe have the extra cash (think bloated debts) to meet this sum.
  • Most countries, like the U.S., which is the largest contributor to the IMF at 17%, don’t have the political support to lend as they turn to domestic fiscal consolidation.
  • There’s still no confirmation that the €200 billion proposed to be raised by European Central Banks and a select few non-European CBs in early December last year has been committed.
  • It is highly unlikely that an institution such as the IMF, which currently has $385 billion in assets to lend, would place its entire war chest on one region, Europe.

The IMF is looking for an agreement to be struck at the G20 FinMin meeting in Mexico City on February 25-26. We’d position that it’s highly unlikely this deal is met at its current value, and caution on the opinion that such a proposal could be included as evidence of a “Bazooka” to spur upshot in intermediate term European capital market performance.   


This week the EU said it has toughened the language of its new fiscal treaty in response to ECB objections, however we remain of the opinion that a fiscal union in and of itself will do little to appease investors looking for a quick fix to European issues and the EFSF is far undercapitalize to deal with sovereign and banking defaults. The very back and forth and uncertainty around Greek PSI is evidence of perilous state of current Eurozone fabric – all week we saw a lack of decision on the issue. Truth be told, we may never see the exact agreement, but be sure, there will be numerous exceptions and loopholes in it, so that ultimately Greece may remain in default without defaulting. Perhaps we’ll learn more specifics on PSI at the Eurogroup and FinMin meetings beginning this coming Monday and Tuesday, respectively.


We’ll reiterate that the markets may turn based on headline risks, with Portugal perhaps the country waiting next in the wings (see yield and CDS breakouts below). We agree that markets may well find comfort in the LTRO to provide the needed liquidity to banks, which has been reflected in decreases in the Euribor-OIS spread over the last 15 days. And while the LTRO may prevent insolvency issues in the near term by boosting liquidity, it may only mask deeper risks. Between now and the mid-year, which is the deadline for banks to meet the 9% Tier 1 capital ratio, we may see dark clouds for banks in particular that need to raise capital. From a policy perspective, it appears Draghi may well hold interest rates unchanged until at least until March to gauge the progress of the LTRO program, and the second instalment on February 29.



Chart of the Week—Germany:

We’ve been getting more constructive on Germany in recent weeks on improving data. This week Germany’s ZEW investor confidence survey showed a major inflection on the 6M outlook, jumping to -21.6 in January vs -53.8 in December. We are very aware that despite Germany’s strong fiscal position (budget deficit = 1% in 2011 vs -4.3% in 2010) and employment base (unemployment rate = 6.8%), the country’s capital markets are not immune to the region’s sovereign and banking contagion risk.  However, the broader equity market (DAX) has shown a great start to 2012, up +8.6% YTD, after falling -20% last year with a similar strong fiscal and employment profile.


Weekly European Monitor: Is This A Head Fake? - 11.  zew



Key Regional Data This Week:

Positives (+)

Germany Wholesale Price Index 3.0% DEC Y/Y vs 4.9% NOV

Turkey Consumer Confidence 92 DEC vs 91 NOV

UK CPI 4.2% DEC Y/Y vs 4.8% NOV

UK RPI 4.8% DEC Y/Y vs 5.2% NOV

Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey of Economic Expectations -50.1 JAN vs -72 DEC

UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence 38 DEC vs 40 NOV

Germany PPI 4.0% DEC Y/Y vs 5.2% NOV

UK Retail Sales w Auto Fuel 2.6% DEC Y/Y vs 0.4% NOV       [+0.6% DEC M/M vs -0.5% NOV]


Negatives (-)

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 8.4% NOV (highest in almost 16 years) vs 8.3% OCT

UK Jobless Claim Change 1.2K DEC vs 0.2K NOV



CDS Risk Monitor:

-On a w/w basis, CDS was largely down across European sovereigns, with Portugal the exception. Italy and France saw the biggest declines at -33bps to 471bps and 186bps, respectively, followed by Spain -27bps to 381bps. Portugal popped, jumping +169bps w/w to 1,257bps.   


Weekly European Monitor: Is This A Head Fake? - 11. sov a


Weekly European Monitor: Is This A Head Fake? - 11. sov b




Keith shorted the EUR/USD via the eft FXE on Thursday (1/19) in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio with the price bumping up against our immediate term TRADE resistance level of $1.29. Our bearish view on the EUR and bullish view on the USD haven’t changed, but the price did. Keith took the opportunity to short FXE at $128.28. Our intermediate term TREND resistance level remains broken at $1.33 (see chart below). We think the lack of resolve from the newest proposals for a fiscal union will encourage greater downside. 


Weekly European Monitor: Is This A Head Fake? - 11. eur



The European Week Ahead:


Sunday:  Finland Presidential Election


Monday:  Eurogroup meeting in Brussels; Jan. Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator – Advance; Jan. France Production Outlook and Business Confidence Indicators


Tuesday:  ECOfin Meeting; Jan. Eurozone PMI Manufacturing, Services, and Composite – Advances; Nov. Eurozone Industrial Orders; Jan. Germany PMI Manufacturing and Services – Advances; Jan. France PMI Manufacturing and Services – Preliminary


Wednesday:  Jan. Germany IFO Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations; UK Bank of England Minutes; Q4 UK GDP – Advance; Jan. UK Business Optimism


Thursday:  ECB Policy Meeting; Feb. Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey; Jan. UK CNI Reported Sales and (Jan 26-31) House Prices; Jan. France Consumer Confidence Indicator and Business Survey Overall Demand; Dec. Russia and Sweden Unemployment Rates


Friday:  Dec. Eurozone Money Supply; Q4 Unemployment Rate



Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.


Word definitely getting out but analysts still need to raise estimates.



As we wrote about on December 16th, “A PREVIEW OF THE EARNINGS PREVIEW,” MPEL should post another huge, estimate-beating quarter.  Since our note, the stock is up 28% but given the low valuation and likely positive estimate revisions into the Q, there is likely more upside in the stock.  Despite the big move in the stock, MPEL still trades at under 7x 2013 EV/EBITDA.  While potential dilution is always a risk with this company, we are still below a stock price that would warrant concern of an equity deal.


We project $226MM of EBITDA for Q4, which is 11% above consensus.  Some of the ‘upside’ is due to better hold in the quarter but that’s no surprise.  While most investors have been focused on the potential slowdown in Macau’s business, we would point out that MPEL’s mass business has continued its momentum with over 60% YoY growth in Q4.



4Q Model Detail

We estimate that City of Dreams will report $713MM of net revenues and $179MM in EBITDA

  • Our net casino win projection is $683MM
    • VIP net win of $437MM
      • Assuming 15.5% direct play, we estimate $20.4BN of RC volume (a 33% YoY increase) and a hold rate of 3.04%
      • Assuming theoretical hold of 2.85%, EBITDA would be $14MM lower and net revenues would be $40MM lower
    • $209MM of mass win, up 66% YoY
    • $36MM of slot win
  • $30MM of net non-gaming revenue
    • $22MM of room revenue
    • $19MM of F&B revenue
    • $25MM of retail, entertainment and other revenue
    • $37MM of promotional allowances or 55% of gross non-gaming revenue
  • $434MM of variable operating expenses
    • $338MM of taxes
    • $84MM of gaming promoter commissions in addition to the rebate rate of 90bps (we assume an all-in commission rate of 1.31% or 43% on a rev share basis)
  • $32MM of non-gaming expenses
  • $67MM of fixed operating expenses compared to $66MM in 3Q

We project $271MM of net revenues and $56MM in EBITDA for Altira

  • We estimate net casino win $262MM
    • VIP net win of $236MM
      • $11.9BN of RC volume (a 4% YoY increase) and a hold rate of 2.94%
      • Assuming theoretical hold of 2.85%, we estimate that EBITDA would be $5MM lower and that net revenues would be $11MM lower
    • $26MM of mass win, up 33% YoY
  • $9MM of net non-gaming revenue
  • $188MM of variable operating expenses
    • $147MM of taxes
    • $37MM of gaming promoter commissions in addition to the rebate rate of 96bps (we assume an all-in commission rate of 1.27% or 43% on a rev share basis)
  • $3MM of non-gaming expenses
  • $24MM of fixed operating expenses in-line with 3Q

Other stuff:

  • Mocha slots revenue and EBITDA of $32MM and $9MM, respectively
  • D&A: $96MM
  • Interest expense: $29MM
  • Corporate expense: $19MM






Comments from CEO Keith McCullough


Immediate-term TRADE overbought is as overbought does – that doesn’t change my bullish intermediate-term view on Global Equities:


OVERBOUGHT – from the Hang Seng (+9.1% YTD) to the DAX (+8.2% YTD) and back again to the SP500 (+4.5% YTD), this season is not even 3 weeks old and we’ve already realized what I think is an outstanding YTD return on equity given the Bernank calls risk free 0%. Immediate-term overbought lines for HK, DAX, and SPX are 20,113, 6424, and 1315, respectively.


DEFLATING THE INFLATION – this is Global Macro Theme #2 for us here in Q1 and it really matters – across the board we’re seeing the impact of a Strong Dollar on DEC CPI and PPI prints across the world (US CPI dropped to 3.0% DEC vs 3.4% NOV, German PPI drops this morn to 4.0% DEC vs 5.2% NOV, New Zealand CPI falls hard to 1.8% in Q4 vs 4.6% Q3)


TREASURIES – it took all week for the bond market to give The Fed something to think about (as Growth expectations rise, interest rates should), but this breakout above my immediate-term TRADE line of 1.95% support for 10s matters. Seeing the 10yr consistently close > 2.03% would be very bearish for the long-bond, bullish for stocks (especially Financials).


Get Growth and Inflation slopes right, you’ll get a lot of other things right.










SBUX: Starbucks and Tata Coffee likely to announce partnership this month - Economic Times - Speaking on the sidelines of an event, Tata Coffee MD Hameed Huq tells reporters that India's first Starbucks will be opened this year.


DNKN: Dunkin’ Donuts announces 12 new units in Omaha


GMCR: Green Mountain’s new Keurig brewer may use radio frequency technology in its new coffee machine to make more complicated beverages, according to documents filed with the FCC.




CBOU: Caribou is up +13.7% over the last week.







RUTH: Now up 14% over the past week. We know the quarter was good, but that good?


BWLD: The worst performing casual dining name over the past week.  We had a record number of clients on our bearish BWLD call yesterday.






Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green




The Macau Metro Monitor, January 20, 2012




Macau December CPI rose 6.81% YoY and 0.74% MoM.



Visitor arrivals totaled 2,545,718 in December 2011, up by 12.1% YoY.  For 2011, total visitor arrivals recorded a historical high of  28,002,279, up by 12.2% YoY.  Visitors from Mainland China surged by 23.5% YoY to 1,482,380 in December 2011, with the majority coming from Guangdong Province, Fujian Province and Hunan Province.  Mainland visitors traveling to Macau under the Individual Visit Scheme totaled 572,841, up by 15.8% YoY.





Singapore Changi Airport reported a 11.4% YoY increase in passenger movement for December - a new monthly record.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.43%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.34%