Since the beginning of November, Chinese stocks are up over +15% (the USA is down -15%). They are cutting both taxes and interest rates. They are plugging in one of the largest domestic stimulus plans in world history. Who can afford to miss getting this wrong? This is not that complicated.
If we weren’t bearish on China (and Asian growth broadly) at this time last year, I may not understand the bear case as well as I feel my investment team does. We also have a research office there, which gives us both critical contacts and context to make this call. After crashing for a 70% peak to trough move, the nominal slowdown in Chinese growth is baked into the cake.