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THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

MACRO NOTES

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims dropped to 352k for the week ending January 14th versus 384k consensus and 402k (revised from 399k) the week prior.

THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, CBOU, TXRH, BWLD - claims 119

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

Note: my headlines that matter YTD have less and less to do with Europe – rest of the world matters too:

  1. CHINA – get the slope of the money supply and lending cycle in China right (finally easing instead of tightening), you’ll get a lot of things Chinese Growth right. Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng both up another +1.3% respectively overnight on “news” that China’s top 5 banks are going to ease lending reqs. End of the world thesis = bad YTD.
  2. RATE CYCLE – this is something I talked about a lot in clients meetings in NYC for the last 2-days. This is very bullish for the US Dollar in terms of monetary policy differentials – all of Asia and Latin America are in easing mode after being hawkish while Bernanke should have been (throughout 2010). Brazil just cut by another 50bps; Philippines cut for 1st time since 09 (joining Indonesia, Thailand, Australia, etc). Bullish for Global Equities vs 2011.
  3. COPPER – when the Doctor gives me the signal, I listen. That breakout my model signaled last week > $3.45/lb was as pure as a cold Canadian beer on the 1st of July. Copper up another +1.4% this morning in what should be considered nothing short of a massive squeeze = +11% YTD.

The only really bad news in my notebook this morning is Larry Summers being considered to run the World Bank.

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, CBOU, TXRH, BWLD - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

MCD: McDonald’s U.S. December sales were “robust” according to a survey of McDonald’s franchisees carried out by Janney.

MCD: McDonald’s has raised prices for some items in China

SBUX: Starbucks may open its first store in India in 2H12.

 

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

CBOU: Strong showing at ICR and lower coffee prices helping this company.

 

CASUAL DINING

NOTABLE PERFORMANCE ON ACCELERATING VOLUME:

TXRH: Shrugging off the downgrade from Tuesday to outperform casual dining.

BWLD: Declining on accelerating volume in a strong up tape yesterday.

THE HBM: MCD, SBUX, CBOU, TXRH, BWLD - stocks

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst