TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 17, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.39% downside to 1284 and 1.00% upside to 1302.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -922 (-1591)
- VOLUME: NYSE 827.88 (+7.51%)
- VIX: 20.91 +2.15% YTD PERFORMANCE: +10.64%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.82 from 1.55 (+17.54%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 54.46
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 1.89 from 1.86
- YIELD CURVE: 1.67 from 1.64
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Jan., est. 11 (prior 9.53)
- 8:30am: NOPA oil stocks, soybean capacity
- 11am: Export inspections, corn, soybean, wheat
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
- 9pm: World Bank releases new growth forecasts
WHAT TO WATCH:
- BB&T, Toronto-Dominion Bank said to be among cos. in talks to buy BankUnited
- Ista Pharmaceuticals received revised non-binding takeover offer from Valeant, will consider updated proposal
- Electricite de France withdrew opposition to merger between Exelon, Constellation Energy
- Georgia Gulf yesterday rejected $1.03b buyout offer from Westlake Chemical as too low
- Morgan Stanley said to plan to tell employees this week it’s capping, delaying some bonuses: WSJ
- IRS pursuing documents from CME Group as part of probe into whether some members underreported income earned from leasing their seats
- Greek PM due to meet tomorrow with group representing private Greek bondholders after 5-day break to discuss forgiving at least half of nation’s debt
- Seventh victim recovered from Costa Concordia cruise ship; Carnival fell 16% in London yday; also watch RCL
- Capital One, Citigroup among those reporting monthly credit- card delinquencies, charge-offs
- Solyndra deadline today for final bids to buy bankrupt co. that got $535m in govt. loan guarantees
- New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to announce budget at 1pm on spending cuts to erase $2b deficit in yr starting April
- “Contraband” from Universal opened as weekend’s top film in N.A. theaters
- No IPOs scheduled
- EARNINGS: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, McMoran among those reporting financial results today. Selected companies, with approximate time and Bloomberg est.:
- TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30 a.m., $0.26
- M&T Bank (MTB) 7:46 a.m., $1.52
- Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8 a.m., $1.01
- First Republic Bank/SF (FRC) 8 a.m., $0.43
- Citigroup (C) 8 a.m., $0.52
- Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) 8 a.m., $0.72
- McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8 a.m., $(0.13)
- Cree (CREE) 4 p.m., $0.26
- Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30 p.m., $0.20
- American Water Works Co (AWK) 4:30 p.m., $0.33
- Linear Technology (LLTC) 5 p.m., $0.38
- Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) 6 p.m., $0.49
- Adtran (ADTN) 8 p.m., $0.46
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – the breakout above our intermediate-term TREND line of $3.45/lb last week helps bust a huge +3.1% meltup this morning to $3.75/lb; TAIL resistance remains overhead at $3.99, but this move should force capitulation on the short covering side.
- Consumer Electronics Frenzy Tops $1 Trillion as Tin Rebounds: Commodities
- Commodities Rise Most in Two Weeks Amid Speculation China May Ease Policy
- Copper Nears Four-Month High on Chinese Growth, Falling Production At Rio
- Oil Rises to Three-Day High as Saudi Arabia Is Seen Targeting $100 Crude
- Gold Climbs to One-Month High on China Easing Outlook, Weakening Dollar
- Coffee Gains for a Second Day as Colombian Harvest Declines; Sugar Rises
- Soybeans, Corn Advance as China May Ease Policy After Slowdown in Growth
- India Increases Tax on Bullion Imports as Government Seeks to Lift Revenu
- Posco 2011 Profit Declines as Demand for Steel Wanes, Missing Estimates
- Persian Gulf Debt Risk at Two-Year High on Iran Hormuz Fears: Arab Credit
- Best Refiner Returns on Naphtha Since May Show China Boom: Energy Markets
- Sino-Forest Rallies on Outlook for China Asset Recoveries: Canada Credit
- Morgan Stanley Favors Gold, Copper on Investment Demand, Global Shortage
- Commodities Rally on Optimism China May Ease Policy
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – can you say ZEW? Biggest m/m pop in the German confidence reading ever – and ever is a long-time; DAX +1.7% to +7.2% for 2012 YTD! And finally immediate-term TRADE overbought here. Germany has done a great job, all things considered, keeping unemployment low and fiscal conservatism intact.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – Chinese stocks up +4.2% overnight and we’ll take that on the long side with a smile as Chinese GDP beats bombed out expectations w/ a +8.9% y/y Q4 print and, more importantly, a re-acceleration in Industrial Production in DEC to +12.8% y/y vs +12.4% NOV + a big re-accel in Singapore’s Exports to +9% y/y in DEC vs +1.4% NOV
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team