THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 13, 2012

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.12% downside to 1281 and 0.50% upside to 1302. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 699 (+410) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 770.06 (1.44%)
  • VIX:  20.47 -2.76% YTD PERFORMANCE: -12.52%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.55 from 2.18 (-28.90%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 55.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 1.90 from 1.92
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.68 from 1.69

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, M/m, Dec., est. -0.1% (prior 0.7%)
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, Nov., est. -$45.0b (prior -$43.5b)
  • 9:55am: UMich Confidence, Jan. P, est. 71.5 (prior 69.9)
  • 11:10am: Fed’s Duke speaks on regulation in Santa Barbara, Calif.
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks on economy in Richmond
  • 1pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Indianapolis
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in St. Louis

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Trade deficit may have widened in Nov. to $45b as oil imports rose, economists est.
  • J.P. Morgan is first of the large banks to release earnings; watch commentary on capital/regulatory outlook
  • Google, LG said to be in talks to collaborate on new TV service
  • Nestle, Danone said to make first-round bids for Pfizer’s baby-formula unit
  • Eastman Kodak said to be in advanced discussions with Citigroup to provide bankruptcy financing
  • Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris, Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld speak on job creation, innovation at Brookings, 8:30am
  • Lufthansa, Boeing officials to speak at National Press Club on how use of biofuels will impact transportation industry, 9am
  • No IPOs scheduled: Bloomberg data

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • China Gold Hoarding Turns More Traders Into Bulls: Commodities
  • Oil Heads for Weekly Decline on Plans to Delay Iranian Embargo
  • Cocoa Falls After European Bean Processing Report; Coffee Climbs
  • Gold Drops as Some Investors Sell After Rally to One-Month High
  • Copper Advances on Optimism Euro-Area Economy Is Stabilizing
  • Copper, Oil, Gold May Drive Commodities Rally, Goldman Says
  • Gold May Gain to $1,670 as Average Breached: Technical Analysis
  • Soybeans Gain First Time in Four Days as USDA Trims Forecast
  • China’s Wen to Juggle Iran Oil Need With Saudi Ties on Gulf Trip
  • Evraz Debt Costs Diverge on Lowest U.S. Loan Rate: Russia Credit
  • Copper Tax Pushing KGHM to Debt to Keep Growing: Poland Credit
  • Rubber Drops, Paring Weekly Gain, as Oil Under $100 Cuts Appeal
  • Palm Oil Drops as USDA Forecasts Bigger U.S. Soybean Supplies
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Oil Trims Weekly Drop on Europe Optimism
  • Corn Drops After USDA Unexpectedly Lifts Global Supply Outlook
  • Uranium Returning From Brink on China Demand: Energy Markets
  • EU’s Iran Oil Embargo Said Likely to Be Delayed for Six Months

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart5

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart6

 


ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - chart8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more