POSITIONS: Long Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Long Consumer Staples (XLP), Long Utilities (XLU)
Being longer works when the market goes up. I know, it’s the stuff of genius.
I thought I was some version of a genius circa 2004-2006 when I was getting paid too much because everything I’d buy would be rumored to be LBO’d. Now some of those companies are bankrupt. Thinking we’re smarter than the market is cyclical.
Today, I’m much more comfortable Embracing Uncertainty and letting the market tell me what to do. My governor in that regard is my TRADE/TREND/TAIL risk management process. I built it to govern my own illusions of intellect.
Across all 3 of our risk management durations, here are the lines that matter most to me right now:
- TRADE resistance = 1291
- TRADE support = 1269
- TAIL support = 1267
In other words, my new immediate-term TRADE range = 1 and that’s bullish because the range is above my long-term TAIL (1267).
What would change my positioning? Price, volume, and volatility signals. But they haven’t changed yet.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer