EMPLOYMENT DATA MORE POSITIVE FOR QSR THAN CASUAL DINING

01/06/12 03:39PM EST

Today’s employment data was a positive for restaurants, in particular QSR.

With the exception of the 45-54 YOA cohort, which saw a sequential deterioration in employment trends in December, the age groups we monitor saw a sequential improvement in employment trends last month.  The chart below illustrates the national employment trends by age bracket.  For QSR, in particular, the sustained strength in employment trends among 20-24 year olds is encouraging for 4Q11 sales.  The restaurant industry is a prime beneficiary of improving employment trends as our macro team’s KING DOLLAR theme (strong dollar = strong consumption = strong America) continues to play out.

EMPLOYMENT DATA MORE POSITIVE FOR QSR THAN CASUAL DINING - Employment by Age

The restaurant industry is still hiring but there is a notable divergence forming between quick service and casual dining employment growth trends in November, as the chart below shows (this data set is released on a lag).  Casual dining employment growth seems to have stalled at just under 2% while QSR employment growth continues to accelerate. 

EMPLOYMENT DATA MORE POSITIVE FOR QSR THAN CASUAL DINING - restaurant employment

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.