TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 30, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.43% downside to 1245 and 0.55% upside to 1270.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1739 (-1899)
- VOLUME: NYSE 531.68 (-2%)
- VIX: 22.65 -3.7% YTD PERFORMANCE: +27.61%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.79 from 2.47 (12.96%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 58.1
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.03 from 1.97
- YIELD CURVE: 1.63 from 1.63
GLOBAL MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Net export sales, grains
- 10am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Dec., est. 58.3 (prior 56.7)
WHAT TO WATCH:
- S&P 500 enters the final trading day of the year up 0.4% for 2011; the Dow is 6.1% higher, while the Nasdaq is down 1.5%. Markets are open for regular trading day.
- Bank of America is poised to be worst performer in Dow, off 59% YTD
- In Europe, Stoxx 600 headed for first annual decline since 2008, down about 12% YTD
- IMF may warn Greece bond writedown isn’t enough, WSJ says
- JPMorgan, Ally sued yesterday by HSH Nordbank on $293m losses in mortgage bonds
- North Korea warned world not to expect change from regime under new leader Kim Jong Un
- No major movie releases this weekend
- No IPOs expected to price today
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Corn Traders Extend Bullish Bets on South America: Commodities
- Commodities Poised for First Annual Decline Since 2008 on Europe
- Oil Heads for Third Yearly Gain on Mideast Tension, U.S. Economy
- Gold Rebounds, Heads for 11th Annual Gain on Demand Speculation
- Copper Rises as U.S. Growth May Make Up for Slowdown in China
- Slowing China Means Ore-Ship Rates at Lowest in Decade: Freight
- Alcoa Accused of Bribing Alba Officials in Aluminum Scheme
- Corn Gains in Chicago as South America Dryness Worries Persist
- Rubber Posts First Annual Loss in Three Years on Europe Crisis
- Fracking Ban Threats Seen Hollow in Calfrac Bonds: Canada Credit
- Palm Oil Gains, Paring First Annual Loss Since 2008, on Weather
- Asia Refiners’ Fuel Oil Losses at Two-Year Low: Oil Products
- Cellulosic Ethanol Again Misses U.S. Target: Chart of the Day
- COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Oil Heads for Third Annual Increase
- CDS Dealers to Judge If Sino-Forest in ‘Credit Event,’ ISDA Says
- Record Surge in CO2 Credits May Hamper Rebound: Energy Markets
- Oil May Rise as Iran Threatens to Block Waterway, Survey Shows
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil Heads for Third Yearly Gain on Mideast Tension, U.S. Economy
- Gold Rebounds, Heads for 11th Annual Gain on Demand Speculation
- Google Backs Israel Entrepreneurs as Local Financing Drops: Tech
- Malaysia’s Highest-Rated Sukuk Lead 2011 Gains: Islamic Finance
- Teva Heads for Biggest Decline in Five Years: Israel Overnight
- Treasuries Set for Best Year Since 2008, Beating Stocks, Dollar
- Egypt’s Long-Term Currency Debt Downgraded by Fitch Ratings
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Howard Penney
Managing Director
