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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 30, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.43% downside to 1245 and 0.55% upside to 1270. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1230

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE:  1739 (-1899) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 531.68 (-2%)
  • VIX:  22.65 -3.7% YTD PERFORMANCE: +27.61%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.79 from 2.47 (12.96%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 58.1
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.03 from 1.97   
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.63 from 1.63

 

GLOBAL MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Net export sales, grains
  • 10am: NAPM-Milwaukee, Dec., est. 58.3 (prior 56.7)

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • S&P 500 enters the final trading day of the year up 0.4% for 2011; the Dow is 6.1% higher, while the Nasdaq is down 1.5%. Markets are open for regular trading day.
  • Bank of America is poised to be worst performer in Dow, off 59% YTD
  • In Europe, Stoxx 600 headed for first annual decline since 2008, down about 12% YTD
  • IMF may warn Greece bond writedown isn’t enough, WSJ says
  • JPMorgan, Ally sued yesterday by HSH Nordbank on $293m losses in mortgage bonds
  • North Korea warned world not to expect change from regime under new leader Kim Jong Un
  • No major movie releases this weekend
  • No IPOs expected to price today

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Corn Traders Extend Bullish Bets on South America: Commodities
  • Commodities Poised for First Annual Decline Since 2008 on Europe
  • Oil Heads for Third Yearly Gain on Mideast Tension, U.S. Economy
  • Gold Rebounds, Heads for 11th Annual Gain on Demand Speculation
  • Copper Rises as U.S. Growth May Make Up for Slowdown in China
  • Slowing China Means Ore-Ship Rates at Lowest in Decade: Freight
  • Alcoa Accused of Bribing Alba Officials in Aluminum Scheme
  • Corn Gains in Chicago as South America Dryness Worries Persist
  • Rubber Posts First Annual Loss in Three Years on Europe Crisis
  • Fracking Ban Threats Seen Hollow in Calfrac Bonds: Canada Credit
  • Palm Oil Gains, Paring First Annual Loss Since 2008, on Weather
  • Asia Refiners’ Fuel Oil Losses at Two-Year Low: Oil Products
  • Cellulosic Ethanol Again Misses U.S. Target: Chart of the Day
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Oil Heads for Third Annual Increase
  • CDS Dealers to Judge If Sino-Forest in ‘Credit Event,’ ISDA Says
  • Record Surge in CO2 Credits May Hamper Rebound: Energy Markets
  • Oil May Rise as Iran Threatens to Block Waterway, Survey Shows

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance


 

MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Oil Heads for Third Yearly Gain on Mideast Tension, U.S. Economy
  • Gold Rebounds, Heads for 11th Annual Gain on Demand Speculation
  • Google Backs Israel Entrepreneurs as Local Financing Drops: Tech
  • Malaysia’s Highest-Rated Sukuk Lead 2011 Gains: Islamic Finance
  • Teva Heads for Biggest Decline in Five Years: Israel Overnight
  • Treasuries Set for Best Year Since 2008, Beating Stocks, Dollar
  • Egypt’s Long-Term Currency Debt Downgraded by Fitch Ratings 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director