A modest gain in Strip revenues expected for November.
Based on our airport/taxi predictive model, we estimate Strip revenues grew 2-6% in November, assuming normal slot and table hold. McCarran Airport passenger traffic increased 3.9% YoY in November—the 11th straight month of growth, and Nevada November taxi trips eked out a 1.2% gain. Statistically, the McCarran data is a better predictor of slot volume while taxi data correlates more highly with table volume excluding baccarat.
Strip performance could have been even better if not for the abnormally high slot hold of 8.2% last November. However, the difficult slot comp is reversed in December when slot hold was only 5.7% versus a normal 7.0%. Baccarat volume should look very strong while slot and other table volume should register low single-digit volume gains. All in all, November was likely a solid month on the Strip.