THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 27, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -2.71% downside to 1231 and 0.37% upside to 1270.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1151 (-389)
- VOLUME: NYSE 477.81 (-38.31%)
- VIX: 20.73 -2.03% YTD PERFORMANCE: +16.79%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.84 from 3.06 (39.95%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 58.03
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.03 from 1.97
- YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.69
GLOBAL MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- U.S. holiday sales will rise 3.8% vs 5.2% advance last year: National Retail Federation
- U.S. SEC sided with the bankrupt Lehman brokerage in $3b dispute with Barclays over assets
- German govt is revising forecast for 1% economic growth in 2012 and will present a lower figure in mid-January, Focus magazine reports
- Republican presidential candidates step up campaigns as Iowa caucuses near (Jan. 3)
- Online gambling could be poised to flourish – WSJ
- Strong Christmas weekend performance insufficient to rescue 2011 box-office performance for movies – WSJ
- Apple iTV sets to be launched in Q2 or Q3 - DigiTimes
WHAT TO WATCH:
- 9:00am: S&P/Case-Shiller Y/y, Oct., est. -3.22% (prior - 3.59%)
- 10:00am: Consumer Confidence, Dec., est. 58. (prior 56)
- 10:00am: Richmond Fed Index, Dec., est. 5 (prior 0)
- 10:30am, Dallas Fed Manf., Dec., est. 4.5 (prior 3.2)
- 11am: Export inspections, Dec. 22: corn, soybeans, wheat
- 11:30am, U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo. bills, $27b 6-mo. bills
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Hedge-Fund Managers Miss Biggest Rally in 10 Weeks: Commodities
- Mildewed Feed Caused Tainted Mengniu Milk, Regulator Says
- Oil Trades Near Highest in Two Weeks on U.S. Recovery Forecasts
- Gold Declines to One-Week Low as Europe Woes Damp Growth Outlook
- Mechel Faces Record Yields After Net Debt Surges: Russia Credit
- Copper Drops First Day in Five in New York on China Slowdown
- India’s Gold Imports Seen Dropping 50% in December on Rupee
- Corn May Extend Rally From Two-Month Low: Technical Analysis
- India May Curb Potash, Phosphate Fertilizer Prices, Jena Says
- Most Stocks Gain as Dollar Holds Losses on U.S. Economic Outlook
- Russian Gold Output Rises 4.5% to 193.8 Tons in January-November
- China 2012 Rare-Earth Export Quota Almost Same as This Year
- Aluminum Shipments by Japan Drop as Overseas Demand Weakens
- Rubber Falls to One-Week Low on Concern Chinese Demand May Drop
- Palm Oil Drops From One-Month High as Investors Lock in Gains
- Noble Group - Unlocking value in Gloucester Coal (Buy, S$1.195 - TP S$
- Paulson’s Gold Fund Said to Fall 10.5% in 2011 as Metal Rises
- China Gold Trading Limited to Shanghai Exchanges, PBOC Says
- Gold Climbs in London as Dollar Decline Boosts Investor Demand
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
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ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Iran Regime Profiting From Currency Decline, U.S. Treasury Says
- Oil Traders Flee as Crude Price Swings From $100: Energy Markets
- Iraq War Lives on as Second-Costliest U.S. Conflict Fuels Debt
- Dubai’s Sukuk Trails 2010 Gains on Debt, Europe: Islamic Finance
- Qatar Plan to List Debt May Boost Local Bond Sales: Arab Credit
- Saudi Arabia Forecasts $3.2 Billion Surplus in 2012 Budget
- Saudis Need $74 Oil Price to Balance 2012 Budget, Jadwa Says
- Abu Dhabi’s Aldar Board to Discuss Selling Assets, Projects
- Renaissance Plans to Raise $130 Million Via Private Placement
- Aldar’s May 2014 Bond Yield Drops to Almost Five-Month Low
- Libyan Output Exceeds 1 Million Barrels a Day: Persian Gulf Oil
- U.S. Considering Yemen’s Saleh Request to Visit for Medical Aid
- Aldar Declines as Board Plans to Meet to Discuss Asset Sale
- Saudi Oil Break-Even Price Rise to $71.5 Next Year, NCB Says
- Savola to Sell Stake in Land Plots for $168 Million
- Syria Producing 260,000 Barrels a Day as Oil Sanctions Bite
- Savola Surges Most Since March After Land Sale, Egypt Stake Buys
- Qatar Fertiliser to Supply Mitsubishi Ammonia, Al Raya Says
- Iran Government Saves $15 Billion on Subsidy Cuts, State TV Says
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Howard Penney
Managing Director
